Lockdown 2020

LOCKDOWN 2020

The Year The World Stood Still

Preamble

At 8:30pm on Monday 23rd March 2020 Prime Minister Boris Johnson, as a result of the global pandemic called Covid-19, imposed a state of near-incarceration on the British public, following a week of pleading for businesses to let employees work from home / closing all social venues  / begging the public to keep their distance and not congregate, all of which were ignored by sufficient people to necessitate this lockdown.

How long it will last is anybody’s guess – and those guesses range from 2 weeks (Donald Trump) to 2 years (people who actually study pandemics for a living).

And however long it takes, we’ll all just have to live with it somehow.

This is a diary of how my family managed. My family is me, my partner Martin, and his 96 yr old Mum, Doris (97 next month), who’s nearly blind, half deaf, frail, and living in sheltered accommodation with Martin as her carer. Martin’s brother Jeff is in lockdown in France, and his sister Janet is in Ilfracombe with her husband, daughters, sons-in-law and grandchildren.

Martin and I live in a very small one-bedroomed flat, with a small garden. Martin is generally out during the day, either at work (he has a record shop) or visiting his Mum. In the evenings he has various group activities including two choirs, an am-dram group, a lads’ social group, and a rock band. He also runs an events company that promotes rock gigs locally. 

So, with all the social activities and the rock gigs gone, and the shop closed, Martin is going to find it a bit difficult.

Me? I stay at home 🙂 

Day 1 – Tuesday 24th March 2020

We are confined to our home and can only leave for very specific reasons: to buy food and essential supplies (most shops have been mandatorily closed), to buy medicines, to provide care to a vulnerable person, to exercise (alone or with family members who live with us), and to go to work if we cannot work from home. 

My prime motivation at the moment is to stock the larder. Unlike those people who’ve been panic-buying and stripping the supermarket shelves like a swarm of locusts, I haven’t been shopping much over the last two weeks. So today we will be foraging for potatoes, eggs, and tea, plus loo rolls for Doris who suddenly announced she hadn’t got any at 5:30pm yesterday evening. A quick trip to Aldi at that time proved fruitless. 

Because the requirement is to not associate with people you don’t live with, Doris won’t now be able to come over for visits and lunches. And as the in-house afternoon entertainment at her sheltered accommodation has ceased for the duration, she will be completely alone except for his visits.

Last year, Doris became quite unwell with what turned out to be malnourishment as she wasn’t eating properly nor drinking enough. She really should be in a care home where her daily needs could be met, but as she’s fully compos mentis this is not something Martin wants to do. And in hindsight, she may be safer where she is, with just Martin visiting, than in a facility where there are many staff, any one of which might be an unwitting carrier of this modern plague.

So Martin set up a daily visiting system last year to ensure Doris was better fed, including providing home-made protein jellies, plus home-cooked food from our kitchen, and she is very much improved.

One other thing Doris had a problem with was bathing, even though she has lift in the bath. Martin looked into getting a female carer in to help with this, but after a couple of months of assessments and meetings Doris suddenly decided she didn’t need help. That left Martin both frustrated and helpless as he obviously couldn’t actually supervise his mother while she was in the bath. So he resorted to insisting that she only bathed when he was on the premises in case she got into trouble. Bath day is Tuesday, so off he went with a couple of loo rolls from our bathroom and a frozen beef casserole for dinner.

He is now going to visit twice a day, to make up for the missing afternoon activities, otherwise Doris will be alone for 23 out of 24 hours a day. She has glaucoma, and her sight is very poor: she can’t read, knit, or do any hobbies, and just about manages to watch TV, though she has difficulty changing the channels as she can’t see the remote properly.

Today we all seem healthy, and we aim to stay that way, as if either Martin or I display symptoms of the virus there is no back-up plan for Doris’ welfare. Martin’s sister Janet has steadfastly refused to shelter her mother in her four bed-roomed house, despite it only being occupied by her and her husband Barry, both of whom are retired. . 

Martin’s shop has now been closed by Boris. Probably not a bad idea, given his situation with Doris. Although the government has indicated he will be offered a grant of £10,000 to keep the business afloat, this will soon be eaten up with the fixed overheads of the shop. We do not have enough space in the flat to store approximately 10,000 vinyl records, so he has to keep the business premises. Martin’s income is now reduced to just the £65 or so a week he gets paid as a carer, and he spends more than that driving back and forth between our home and Doris’.

But we have a Plan B: the shop has only been open for about 9 months, and while sales were steadily improving they were all walk-in customers. So we have decided to put all the stock for sale online on the website.

Our tasks for today therefore are to put a notice on the shop door announcing the temporary closure of the premises and the opening of our virtual store by the end of the week, and then to create said virtual store. And that’s my job!

***

After designing a notice for the shop door I went round to print it and whaddya know? The printer is out of toner! No matter what I did, it didn’t want to print. Toner costs about £140 for a set of four colours and there’s no way I want to pay that out at the moment. So back home to print on the old printer, which is also low on toner.

Then in the garden with a coffee and ciggie (me) / tea (Martin) we had a meeting about what to do with the shop. We have a lovely chap called Simon who’s very knowledgeable and has been helping out for a few hours a week and we’d like to include him in our plans if possible.

We have 3,300 records on our database (and at least as many not on it). Those on it need some work grading and categorising so I think Simon is up for that. He has a key and can work in the shop on his own (as he also has an elderly mother, and they live together with his brother) so that he and Martin aren’t in the shop at the same time. However Martin wants to have face-to-face conversations with him. He does have Skype or any video messaging system, but he’s agreed to install it and see if he can use it.

Martin has agreed to spend at least three hours a day in the shop adding the rest of the vinyl to the database.Our aim is to get the first 3,300 online as soon as possible, and then add the rest in tranches as they’re indexed.

It seems a bit wrong to be setting up a system that relies on someone else delivering the goods, but as eBay and Amazon are still selling all sorts of stuff I think it will be OK. Then again, Boris may decide that non-essentials have to be sacrificed in which case we’ll keep following the plan until such time as restrictions are lifted. It’s either that or sit twiddling our thumbs and do nothing, and that won’t help when things get going again as we’ll have stagnated.

Next a trip to Aldi foraging for tea, loo rolls, eggs – all unavailable – and potatoes – yay! They were in stock. I also managed to snag some little easy peelers for Doris.

My last ‘job’ of the day was to find some wireless headphones for Doris to use with her TV as her hearing is really very poor, even with hearing aids. I have bought them via Amazon; delivery Thursday apparently.

And then it’s back to knitting 🙂 

Day 2 – Wednesday 25th March 2020

The weather forecast for the next three days is sunny and dry, though not that warm, so I’ve started the spring-cleaning washing: the stuff you only wash every now and again.

My forage list was reduced yesterday as Martin discovered a large box of teabags at his Mum’s. 

The current lockdown is for three weeks, according to Boris. I have read the report from Imperial College that analyses pandemic strategies and their effectiveness. This isn’t going to go away in three weeks. Not even in three months. But I guess telling the whole population they have to put their lives on hold for three months would probably spark a huge backlash. So the old and vulnerable have been told to stay at home for twelve weeks, and the rest think they’ll get away with three. 

My personal opinion is that we will have restrictions for at least six months, possibly nine, so I am planning for a restart of business in the New Year.

At home we have a small but very unkempt garden. Martin doesn’t like gardening, but this year he will have to pull his weight if he expects to lounge around outside.

By the same token I am a very lazy housewife. It was a standing joke in my family that I only got the vacuum cleaner out when my Mum was coming to visit and she’s been gone these past six years!

In my defense, I’m usually too busy doing other stuff to worry about a bit of dust 😉 

So as a lot of my work is on hold – I’m a webmaster and graphic designer – I guess now’s the time to catch-up on some of the household chores. But since I forecast this situation lasting for a while I’m not going to knock myself out getting it all done in the next week, especially as no-one can come and visit!

I saw a statistic yesterday that 20% of the world’s population are under some form of lockdown. That’s 1.4 billion people, each with their own problems and ways of dealing with it. We are relatively lucky. We are not in danger of losing our home; we have sufficient income to live on; and we are still healthy.

My priorities for today: random laundry, foraging for eggs and loo rolls, get the grass cut (Martin’s job), and keep working on the online store for the records business.

***

I limit myself (as a matter of course) to just one newsfeed a day. It’s the Daily Mail (yes, I know, but they are all as bad as each other IMHO), and I’ve just seen a story that in China they are having some success with mega-doses of Vitamin C (1.5grams, 4 times a day), administered intravenously. I can see a run on Vit C tablets coming, yet it will only help if you have actually caught the virus. Too much oral Vit C won’t kill you (it’s water soluble and is excreted via the kidneys) but it will give you diarrhea. Seems extra Vit D might also be useful so I hope everyone is getting their 15 minutes of sun every day.

***

As we are allowed to leave our homes for exercise, Martin and I walked around Chalkwell Park. We live about 50 yds from it, but rarely ever visit, but as we’re now confined Martin thinks we should walk it daily.

A fruitful trip to Aldi resulted in loo rolls for Mum and eggs for us, plus some other bits. My forage list for tomorrow is now sugar, cigarettes and paracetamol. 

Yesterday Martin decided he would spend three hours a day at the shop cataloguing stock. Seems that has gone out of the window today.

And as I write there is a virtual choir rehearsal going on in the living room via Zoom!

Day 3 – Thursday 26th March 2020

Woke up this morning thinking ‘I wonder what odds I’d have got if I’d gone to a bookmaker on New Year’s Day and said I wanted to bet the whole world would be shut down by Easter?’ Might be heading towards being a millionaire by now 🙂 

Thankfully, it’s another sunny day today, though the forecast for next week isn’t so good. So more ‘occasional’ laundry, and I think Martin might cut the grass today.

There are reports every day from ‘experts’ who now say we shouldn’t walk indoors with shoes on; it’s not safe to open parcels that are delivered (or they need disinfecting); and mobile phones are breeding grounds for the virus. In reality, you need a fairly hefty dose of any virus for it to take hold, but scaremongering is what sells newspapers, real or virtual.

We have adopted a policy of handwashing every time we’ve been out, and we’ve been doing that for a few weeks. My hands are now like a washerwoman’s – dry and cracked – so I must find some handcream as knitting is becoming more difficult with the yarn snagging on my skin. I have a couple of jars of coconut oil somewhere 🙂 

No shopping today. We have decided to limit it to two trips a week – we don’t take the car (as we live about 200 yds from an Aldi) so it has to be carriable. 

If the temperature improves a bit I’m hoping to sort the patio area out in the garden so I can work (and smoke) outside, as Martin is one of those ex-smokers who think it’s OK to force others to follow suit and makes coughing sounds and flaps his hands whenever I light up indoors. 

One piece of good news yesterday: our car’s MOT is due on April 24th and as Martin must use the car to get to his Mother’s home we were worrying if any garages were open. It seems they are, but the government has implemented a 6-month extension for all private vehicles’ MOTs so that’s not something we have to deal with at the moment.

Day 4 – Friday 27th March 2020

Another sunny morning. I believe the weather has something to do with the relative calm associated with this lockdown. The forecast for next week is cold, wet and windy. It will be interesting to see how patient people are after a week where they’re really confined indoors.

Today’s tasks: last of the occasional laundry; shopping. If the temperature warms up I might have a potter in the garden now the grass has been cut. I am a fair-weather gardener – too chilly and I don’t bother!

Sad news today: a local GP, who was my GP when I first moved to Westcliff, has died, apparently from Covid-19 symptoms. It’s getting closer to home as his surgery is only a couple of miles from us!!

Martin and some mates used to have a meeting in a local pub every Thursday just to have a couple of beers and put the world to rights. In these times, that’s not possible, so the first video conference meeting took place yesterday using Zoom, and very well it went too. As all the guys are a bit long in the tooth it was amazing that only one didn’t attend. Everyone had their own beers and crisps so it was just like sitting round the table in a pub. From my perspective (in another room) there seemed to be a lot of merriment going on. All but one of the guys have partners, so they aren’t totally alone. I think it was a good exercise in keeping together and will be repeated weekly (or more often if required!).

Yesterday the Chancellor announced the much-hoped-for help for self-employed people who, up till now, have not qualified for any of the financial support measures on offer. As I suspected, assistance will be based on tax returns for up to three years, averaged out. For those honest citizens who file accurate returns, that’s OK, but there are plenty of cash-in-hand merchants that file the minimum on their tax returns and that’s now come back to bite them. Still, you can’t have it both ways. Those who have been economical with the truth have been salting the cash under their mattresses so they’ll just have to use that! At least musicians will be covered as they have no hope of earning money at the moment. 

I feel sorry for those who started a business in the last twelve months as they’ll be excluded, unless they work from business-rateable premises. Martin’s record business falls under that heading, as he only started it last June, but he will get a grant as he has premises.

Day 5 – Saturday 28th March 2020

As the fifth day of lockdown begins a lot of people are experiencing the Groundhog Day syndrome: each day seems a lot like yesterday; no-one is totally sure of the day or date; the prospects for tomorrow are no better.

I am slightly heartened by the weather forecast which says we have a dry and sunny (but chilly) weekend, and next week might not be as wet as previously forecast.

So my first job is Doris’ laundry – which I do as she can’t use the communal washers and dryers at her sheltered accommodation as she can’t see well enough.

Yesterday I had a bit of a tidy up round the patio, put the parasol up, cleared some space, and trimmed a shrub. I have found some fairly sturdy gloves for Martin who has volunteered to clear the thicket of brambles at the end of the garden.

We have a wood chipper. We also have a huge pile of woody trimmings from the last couple of years, so that’s another job for Martin. I’d rather chop everything up and use it as a mulch than burn the stuff, though I think prickly cuttings should really be burned. We do have a small incinerator.

We have a Sky Sports subscription through NowTV. Sky has suspended payments for that channel on their own system, but there is no suggestion that NowTV are going to do the same thing. I bought a 10-month package last year which expires in July, but there are no live sports at the moment. Our passes should really be extended to cover the time, after things start again.

Day 6 – Sunday 29th March 2020

Almost at the end of our first week of lockdown. Martin has been to see Doris this morning and reports the roads are very quiet. That’s either people getting the message, or the change in weather, as we’ve had a small hailstorm this morning and the temperature has dropped considerably.

Yesterday we hacked down a load of the brambles at the end of our postage stamp-sized garden. I don’t mind them growing, as they produce lovely fruit, but they have been allowed to run rampant and cover about 20ft. I’m not minded to go gardening today.

The current thinking is that social distancing may have to continue for six months, which is less than I’d expected. I don’t like the media constantly fuelling panic by reporting the increase in deaths on a daily basis. It is obvious to anyone with half a brain cell there will be no change expected for a minimum of three to four weeks, as those becoming ill or dying now were already infected before the lockdown started. I think Spain and France may be the countries to watch as they are a week or two ahead of us with their isolation policies.

So today will be a knitting day for me, unless I can drum up enough enthusiasm to start clearing out my wardrobe, having done Martin’s last week 🙂 

The headphones I ordered from Amazon for Doris on Tuesday arrived on Thursday. They are NFR (radio) rather than Bluetooth, mostly because I didn’t know if her TV had Bluetooth. I was concerned that, with her very poor eyesight, Doris wouldn’t be able to do anything complicated regarding recharging the batteries, but the Sony ones I chose seem to have a simple system of dropping the headset into the cradle with no fiddly connection to line up. I hooked them up to our TV and they worked. Martin took them over to Doris on Friday morning and got them plugged in, and she seems delighted. She has hearing aids in both ears, but her hearing is still poor, and these headphones are now delivering much more sound for her. As she is absolutely confined to barracks, and has no company unless Martin is with her, she now has a slightly better quality of life. Our biggest concern is the isolation, and possible resulting depression, because although she speaks to her son in France via Skype when Martin’s around, her daughter and the rest of the family don’t seem to offer the same contact, even though they all have the capability.

Day 7 – Monday 30th March 2020

The last day of the first week of lockdown. 

The first question of the day: do we need to go food shopping? The list on the fridge door is growing, but the two most urgent things – bread and milk – can be delayed as we have a loaf and a carton of milk in the freezer. So out they’ve come.

I am a bit miffed that, after racking up megabucks before the lockdown from the idiots buying with no restrictions like there was no tomorrow, supermarkets are now restricting buyers to two or even one of things. 

This isn’t helpful for several reasons: 

1. When we shop, we buy for us and Doris. So who gets the milk, or bread, or eggs?
2. Given that we are all supposed to go out as infrequently as possible, if I can only buy one carton of milk (and we normally buy two different types) but we get through two cartons a week, I’ll have to go out twice a week. No, actually three times because we buy two six-pint cartons of semi-skimmed milk a week but Tesco, in their wisdom, have done away with those, so I’ll need three four-pint cartons and because I can only buy one at a time… You see where I’m going with this. It’s totally counter-productive and will certainly increase the number of visits we have to make. Thank god we’re a family of two, plus Mum, because I’d hate to shop for a family of six with these restrictions. 
3. Waitrose have now decided that only one member of a family can shop. Martin and I usually go together – he carries the basket, I fill it up. I have a frozen shoulder, so carrying weight isn’t easy. Send Martin, you say. Well, yes, but he’s not a good shopper and never remembers what we buy, so god knows what he’d come back with. And, with the paucity of stock on the shelves, it is difficult to specify fresh meat and vegetables, or suitable alternatives.

The supermarkets say they have sufficient stock, so I don’t see why rationing at such a level is being implemented. But the end result will be that I shall have to shop three or four times a week, each time exposing myself to potential infection, and thus exposing Martin and his mother as well.

Home delivery / click and collect slots are still over three weeks away, so that isn’t an alternative. And although Doris is 96 she has not had a letter saying she is part of the vulnerable group that is getting special home deliveries, so we have to shop for her.

So our policy of only going shopping twice a week at most has just been thrown out the door.

I’d also like to see how supermarkets might implement that latest suggestion regarding distancing: seems it should be four times as far as we’re already doing – so 24 feet, not 6 feet.  Using that criterion, they will only be able to allow a handful of shoppers in at any one time (one per aisle), and there will be queues 24 hours a day outside. Still, the good news is that they’ll have time to refill the shelves properly, though their profits will drop through the floor with so few shoppers daily. Or maybe everyone will be timed, like Supermarket Sweep – grab what you can in five minutes and then you’re out. Could be interesting, though I pity the pensioners (of which group I am one!), and those with walking difficulties. However, the mobility scooter brigade should have a field day!!

Yesterday I made up three litres of disinfectant spray using an old six-pint milk carton, three litres of cold water, a squirt of washing-up liquid, and sixty millilitres of bleach. Bleach kills just about everything, and this mix should be OK if you get it on your hands, though I shall dig out the rubber gloves if I do any serious cleaning with it as my hands are still cracked from all the handwashing (but the coconut oil is helping).

While the sun is shining at the moment the forecast is for intermittent showers and with a northerly wind it’s too cold for gardening. Wednesday is looking hopeful as it should be warmer, and dry. Meantime I shall have to amuse myself with indoor tasks. The knitting is coming along nicely; not so much the wardrobe clearing, but hey! we’re here for the duration which is now looking definitely nearer six months than three.

***

Something very unhealthy is happening in this country, and I don’t mean the virus.

There have been reports, over the past few days, of members of the Police service apparently going way beyond their remit when it comes to upholding the public health requirements regarding the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Prime Minister was clear in his broadcast, backed up by the latest legislation, that people should avoid unnecessary journeys and cited as examples essential shopping, daily exercise, dog walking, and visits as carers to vulnerable people.  However, two key words – ‘unnecessary’ and ‘essential’ – were not defined. 

Some members of the Police service seem to have taken it upon themselves to supply a definition for each word that suits them; namely that driving any distance except in a straight line to and from a food shop is unnecessary, and shopping for anything other than food or medicines is not essential. 

Thus we have stories today of drivers being told they will be fined for taking a longer route home from the shops, a shop owner being charged for chalking distance lines on the pavement, and corner shops being told to remove Easter eggs from the shelves as they are not essential. In the same article, senior members of the service are complaining about lack of resources to effectively police the country.

Needless to say, almost every comment on the story either castigates the police for failing to respond to emergency calls yet are to be found harassing the public over these alleged offences, or points out that the police have no right to determine such definitions.

I believe that no definitions were deliberately included in the legislation as one person’s ‘essential’ is another person’s ‘luxury’, and someone’s ‘necessary’ journey might be ‘unnecessary’ for another. 

For example, I will go out to buy cigarettes because I’m a smoker so they are necessary to me (yes, I know), but I wouldn’t go out to buy booze as I don’t drink alcohol. Martin, on the other hand, doesn’t smoke but does drink, so he’d go out for the opposite reason. Which one of us is right? 

And we are lucky to have a small garden and live very close to a park, so we can get out without driving. We could even walk to the beach at a push. But if we lived in a high-rise in the middle of a conurbation our only chance of getting away from everybody might be a half hour drive to the countryside. As it’s well-known that exercise, or even just sitting, in a natural environment is good for one’s mental health, why do the Police service suddenly decide it’s illegal to do that?

Keeping people cooped up for any length of time is considered cruel and unusual punishment in prisons, and that’s why it’s used as a punishment. Keeping a population confined, even on public health grounds, without having a fixed timeframe and without the opportunity to determine how to occupy themselves will end in civil disobedience, and that’s no help to anyone. 

We have a system of governance by consent, and our Police service works on the same basis. If the population is pushed too far, the only remedy will be martial law.

Day 8 – Tuesday 31st March 2020

The start of Week 2. 

Today’s news stories include allegations that supermarkets are now refusing entrance to people with children, blind people, and people with disabilities. All the cited supermarkets deny it, so there must be miscommunication somewhere – most probably with the new security guards. There have been stories in the past of ill-educated staff at supermarkets refusing entrance to guide dogs, so it doesn’t surprise me at all.

There is an interesting story that the BCG (anti-tuberculosis) vaccine might prove useful as a possible prophylactic against Covid-19. I knew it was used in the treatment of bladder cancer, but not exactly how it worked. If it does prove useful that will certainly speed up the protection that can be offered to all front-line workers as the vaccine is already licenced.

Yesterday I read about the difference the viral payload made, and that a small amount of virus picked up from touching something might actually give a sufficient immune response with very little symptoms. In contrast, being exposed to a large viral load, such as someone coughing in your face, would almost certainly precipitate a severe reaction as the body would not be able to react quickly enough to prevent the virus multiplying.

Here in the Edwards-Wood household we have started the day with Martin going over to see Doris and supervise her bath, and I have made the protein jellies that improve her nutrition.

I’ve been making these jellies for about nine months now. I looked at the cost of buying them ready-made (about £2.50 per portion) and then looked at what they contain – basically some form of protein in a sweet jelly carrier. So I buy blocks of jellies from Aldi at around 40p each and a 2kg bag of vanilla-flavoured whey protein (as used by all good body-builders) for about £25 delivered by Amazon. One block of jelly, one pint of water, and eighty grams of protein powder make four jellies, which last four days. Total cost per portion – about 35p or £10.50 per month as compared to £75 a month for ready-made.

Day 9 – Wednesday 1st April 2020

A Facebook page called ‘Scientists for EU (‘Fighting for UK science and its relationship with the EU’) today posted a piece from a website called OpenDemocracy.net entitled ‘Stop blaming ordinary people for the UK’s pandemic failures’. On reading the piece, it seems to be less about democracy and more about Tory-bashing. 

The keystone of the article is how the writer holds the current government (‘reckless rulers’) to blame for not giving clear unequivocal orders, whether it be to the population (Stay At Home), employers (Let people work from home) or anybody else. I infer therefore he would prefer a totalitarian system where the rules are so specified there cannot be any choices.

There are no suggestions in the piece as to how things could be improved.

The kicker at the end of the article is a petition to the Chancellor ‘to introduce an immediate liveable income guarantee for everyone living in the UK – without conditions on job seeking, migration status, savings, partner income or any other limiting factors. 

This must guarantee every adult in this country an income equivalent to the real living wage (£9.30 per hour, or £372 per week).’

How that will stop the spread of Covid-19 I have no idea.

The comments on the article are interesting. Many people complained about ‘hiding’ the modelling – maybe they didn’t look for it because I found it online on the Imperial College website, or maybe they just want to be spoonfed. Complaints about herd immunity and unethically exposing the population to a virus, as if the government imported it. Apart from a couple of voices, the whole tone of the comments is government-bashing, and blaming those who voted Tory. But still no solutions. 

Back in the real world – today I shall be mostly shopping. The list on the fridge door is down to the floor (and my fridge is 6ft tall) so I think needs must. I believe the weather forecast is for a warmer day, so maybe we’ll get a bit more done in the garden.

A successful trip to our local Tesco Express. Well, successful in that I didn’t have to queue outside, less successful in that the shop is still poorly stocked. The Aldi trip has been postponed till tomorrow.

I spent the rest of the day pottering in the garden and knitting. The Lockdown Jumper is coming on well!

Day 10 – Thursday 2nd April 2020

I’m surprised it’s the 10th day since lockdown. But as every day is more or less the same, it’s not really surprising.

For a week or so I’ve been running a Covid-19 app that’s feeding data to Kings College. Fortunately, I’ve been able to report NFM (Normal For Me) every day. It’s designed to help monitor where outbreaks occur, and only takes about 5 seconds a day. Every little helps!

Today I saw a post on Facebook that said there were 44 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the Southend area, and 7 deaths as a result. That gives a mortality rate of nearly 16%! My God! Are we doomed? No, what those figures tell us is that in fact there are about 350 cases in Southend, but 300 people either don’t know or have had mild symptoms and none of them have been tested. The global average mortality rate is about .02% and there is no reason why Southend should be any different.

I keep seeing graphs and charts showing increasing numbers of infections and deaths and the media constantly report ‘record’ deaths on a daily basis. These are not helpful in the least for two reasons:

1. In the UK we are only testing those sick enough and young enough to be admitted to hospital. Therefore the ‘number of cases’ is completely false. I would guess it should be at least ten times higher, with most people only having mild symptoms.
2. With an average mortality of .02%, for every 100 people infected with Covid-19, two will die. The increase in deaths is as inevitable as the sunrise and is completely relative to the number of infections, tested or not.

A better statistic, which is sometimes apparent on some graphs, is the rate of infection i.e. were more people infected today than yesterday, or less? These viral infections follow a fairly standard Bell Curve, petering out naturally (i.e.without any interventions) after about three months. But this curve means that a huge number will be ill at the same time, and a percentage will require hospitalisation to survive. Unless there are unlimited resources to cater for a huge increase in demand for hospital beds it inevitably means many people who need it will not get treated, and will probably die. The idea of ‘Flattening The Curve’ is to spread out the numbers getting infected and reduce the demand on hospital beds at any one time. This means that the rate of infection has to reduce from an uncontrolled estimate of 2.6% (one infected person infects three more) down to a rate nearer or less than 1%. It does make the timeline longer, maybe twice as long or more, but it is proven to reduce the number of deaths.

My other rant for the day: I’m fed up with people criticising Boris / the Tory government, All these keyboard warriors (and some politicians – yes Jeremy I’m looking at you) spend hours slagging off the course the government has taken. (I’m not saying that course was right or wrong, but given the situation I’d like to see anybody do anything better.) These know-it-alls sat in their armchairs are coming up with conspiracy theories, claims the government is ‘hiding’ information, and moaning about lack of support (for their particular circumstance). 

None of the moaners have any useful ideas about how things could be improved, and I suspect these same people are panic-buyers who are now ignoring the ‘stay at home’ directive because they don’t believe this pandemic is as bad as it’s claimed.

I blame successive governments for the appalling lack of education of these people. The crackpot ‘cures’ and ‘preventatives’ touted around the internet by so-called ‘influencers’ are stupid up to downright dangerous, if not lethal (e.g. the idiots who drank meths).

I’d like to see a games manufacturer produce a game that starts from Jan 1st, with all the known data at that time, and the player (cos these meglomanics wouldn’t want to share the decision-making) then has to pilot the country though this exact same scenario that we have now until 31st December without killing the whole population, breaking the health service, bankrupting the country, or causing rioting on the streets. Oh, and they have to survive themselves and still be in Government.

And with that, I’m putting on my latex gloves and going to forage in Aldi. Martin is bringing the car over when he gets back from his morning visit to Doris, so hopefully I can stock up for a week or so.

***

The trip to Aldi went well. The queue was only from the door to the end of the car park when I arrived and it moved fairly quickly. The store was pretty well stocked up – there was one thing I wanted that was out-of-stock, and one thing I forgot. But otherwise I probably won’t need to food shop for about a fortnight. Which is good as far as I’m concerned as I’m quite happy to stay the hell away from everybody till this is over.

I watched an 8-part video course on how to survive the shutdown of a business and it was very good. It was produced by Bob Phipps aka The Retail Doctor and this guy really knows his onions. So now I have to think how we can use his ideas to keep people aware of Martin’s record shop. 

I have seen reports that suggest we might have nice weather this weekend, so maybe we can get out into the garden and do a bit more tidying up. We have a shredder that chops up prunings, and it’s very efficient (and saves burning) but it’s very noisy. With everyone being stuck at home it’ll be difficult to run it for any length of time I fear. We’ll see.

Day 11 – Friday 3rd April 2020

A mild but dull day. But it’s looking very good for the weekend and most of next week, in the run up to Easter, so I think gardening is on the menu. 

I am finding it difficult to get up any enthusiasm today, so I’m just sitting around waiting for the gas man to call and give the boiler its annual check.

Each day I play a little game: try and get a delivery or click-and-collect slot with Tesco. Nothing available up to April 22nd now. I have done this every day since lockdown and cannot get a slot. Thank goodness I can go out to shop, though I’d prefer not to.

There are pictures this morning from around the country of piles of fly-tipped rubbish, with local councils berating people for dumping. Well a blind man could have predicted that if you cut back on bin collections and close amenity tips when the whole country is stuck at home with very little to do you’d end up with far more rubbish than usual as people have a spring clean to keep themselves occupied. 

Just what are they supposed to do with the stuff? Charity shops are closed, so donating is out of the question. Keep it, says the councils, till things return to normal. That’s all well and good if you have somewhere to keep rubbish, but many people don’t. While I don’t condone fly-tipping, I do think councils should be made to reopen the tips and provide a decent waste disposal service. After all, who’s going to pay for the fly-tipped stuff to be cleared? Ratepayers. The same ratepayers who already pay for rubbish bins to be emptied and for access to tips, and who are not getting a reduction in council tax when these services are cut back or closed. 

Day 12 – Saturday 4th April 2020

With the prospect of nice weather for this weekend and into next week, Southend Council have taken an extraordinary step of introducing an Emergency Road Closure Order yesterday which prohibits parking anywhere near the seafront from Leigh to Shoeburyness, and closes the main part of the seafront to traffic from Shorefield Road to the Kursaal. This means that unless you live near to the seafront, because you can’t drive or park there, you won’t be able to walk there either. And this Order lasts for 21 days, which covers next weekend (Easter) and a couple of weeks after. It’ll be interesting to see how many people try to flout this, as I’m sure Plod will be out in force fining all and sundry (and towing cars away as well).

The council have done this after last weekend’s appalling display of ignoring the requirement to stay at home and distance yourself when out, as there were loads of people cramming round pubs (which should have been shut) and fish and chip shops (which put seating outside rather than inside) and generally behaving as if nothing was different. 

Here in The Avenue, we’ll be gardening. I’m thinking that we need to differentiate between weekdays and weekends, if only to keep our sanity. So weekdays are for work, and weekends for the garden, weather permitting.

Day 13 – Sunday 5th April 2020

Another nice sunny day. Another day for the section of the population who are either immune or conspiracy theorists to ignore the directives to stay at home and to flock en masse to the nearest beach, park or beauty spot. 

I’m thinking that it’s time to deal with these people, and not just with fines. 

There are loads of empty boarding schools around. Anyone caught flouting the rules should be summarily removed to the nearest boarding school and sequestered there. Before you all start shouting about human rights and court procedures, it must be plain to anyone that if they are where they shouldn’t be, doing things they shouldn’t do, there can be no defence. Therefore it would save a lot of time and trouble just to transport them straight to ‘jail’.

They would be free to mix with the other inmates (as they are either immune or don’t believe the virus actually exists that shouldn’t hurt them). They can have food delivered, but no staff on site so they’d have to fend for themselves.

Put a load of club bouncers on the doors to stop them leaving, by force if necessary. 

It would also provide a good controlled environment to study how infections are spread. No hospitalisation either for any that become ill, as that’s obviously a figment of their imagination. They would be allowed internet access and could post videos to their heart’s content to their followers, though each video would have bars across it to demonstrate where they are and why. That should help the rest of the population who are respecting the rules.

Meanwhile, once my aching muscles and bones have got moving, I shall spend the day in the garden chopping up yet more prunings to either put them through the wood chipper or burn the prickly ones.

I have worked out that my last contact with a group of people was three weeks ago, and apart from a handful of shopping trips, I haven’t left the house since then. So as long as I stay at home, I should be OK.

The news today is talking about the peak of the pandemic in the UK to be next weekend. If by that they mean the rate of infection – R0 –  should drop after that then I make them about right. But the death toll will not peak for a further week, as deaths seem to be about eight days behind the infection rate, according to the figures I have seen. So by the time we get to the Early Spring Bank Holiday, there should be a noticeable downturn in the daily numbers of infection (especially if we have locked up all the idiots as above!).

So the suggestion that some restrictions may be relaxed by the Late Spring Bank Holiday at the end of May makes some sense. However, as we most certainly will not have tested anywhere near enough people to know who is infectious, who has recovered, and who hasn’t been exposed yet, any relaxing can only be in very small steps to prevent a catastrophic resurgence resulting in us all having to go through this lockdown again.

It will be interesting to see how France and Spain fare as they are further along the timeline.

Day 14 – Monday 6th April 2020

So once again yesterday a portion of the uneducated decided the rules weren’t made for them and went out in droves to the parks and beaches. I am really at a loss to know why the police haven’t implemented the fine system now. They would soon pack up and go home when they saw others getting ticketed or arrested for refusing to give their names and addresses. 

It reminds me of the time when local magistrates were fed up with people drink-driving at Christmastime, so one year they declared that any drink-driver appearing before them would be held on remand over Christmas to be dealt with in the New Year. That threat didn’t stop people drinking and driving, but it sure made headlines when the first offender appeared in court expecting the usual fine / ban and was sent straight to jail. If memory serves I believe his lawyer tried to get that decision reversed, without success, and several people did spend that Christmas in jail.

If you’re going to threaten people, you must be prepared to carry out the threat. Up till now, that’s not been happening (and I know all the goody-two-shoes say that the police should adopt a softly softly approach) but we are now two weeks into this lockdown and I don’t believe anyone who says they didn’t know that they were supposed to stay at home.

We have high-profile people such as the CMO Scotland (now resigned) and footballers not only flouting the law but in some cases openly boasting about it on Instagram. 

So I’d like to see these willful scofflaws (what a lovely word that is) rounded up and fined and/or jailed. The ‘one law for the rich, another for the poor’ scenario cannot be allowed to continue as the rest of the country will revolt. 

I applaud those who are playing the game, under very trying circumstances in many cases, and those who are still working to provide emergency services, access to food and medicines, and care for the elderly and vulnerable. They don’t deserve seeing idiots making their jobs much harder. Nor do they deserve even more stringent rules, just because a minority choose to ignore the current system.

Time to make some examples by fining, or preferably jailing, people who will not respect the law (and ‘stay at home’ is a law) ‘pour encourager les autres’.

Yesterday, I found something Martin likes doing: having bonfires. We have a load of overgrown brambles which we’re hacking down and had filled the incinerator, so last night we spent an hour burning it all. Today is looking far more dreary, but hopefully we can get another load chopped up and have another burn-up in a couple of days.

Last night it was reported that Boris was admitted to hospital. It seems he cannot shake off the virus. I suspect he’s developed pneumonia. 

And last night HM The Queen addressed the nation. I didn’t watch it but I have read a transcript. I didn’t know that she and Princess Margaret gave an address during the war, while they were sequestered at Windsor Castle. The address was all I’d expected, and I’m sure the royalists would have loved it, but as many in the country have become disenchanted with the Royal Family over the years I’m not sure just how much effect it will have. None I suspect on the scofflaws. 

Day 15 – Tuesday 7th April 2020

As we start our third week of ‘stay at home’, Boris has been moved to ICU. Despite assurances from the government mouthpieces, that can only mean one thing: he has developed severe breathing problems and needs ventilation support. 

Pneumonia occurs when there is appreciable fluid on the lungs. The lungs are damp, but not wet. If they get wet, oxygen cannot transfer from the alveoli to the blood vessels, and the body is starved of oxygen. The Covid-19 virus produces not a wet lung but a sticky lung with mucus clogging up the alveoli. This is harder to shift. Mechanical ventilation can be used to support the lung function by supplying a  positive pressure of high levels of oxygen to compensate for the poor lung function, but recovery is completely down to the patient’s immune system being able to kill the virus. Interestingly, doctors have reported much better outcomes for ventilated patients who are prone rather than supine, as that position reduces the compression on the lungs.

The good news is the weather forecast for the next few days up till Easter is good. The bad news is that once again people will be out and about when they shouldn’t be. There were a lot of comments yesterday on stories of people sunbathing in parks, barbecuing on a beach and windsurfing 150 miles from home. The comments seemed to be evenly split between those who deplored the actions and those who defended them on the grounds of ‘they were on their own, so what’s the problem?’.

I must admit some frustration with people who argue the second, as they seem to be completely missing the point: if one does it, everyone will do it. Curiously, these same people called out the police for not respecting the ‘safe distance’ rule when interacting with groups of people out on a jolly, but failed to mention the proximity of the members of the said group.

I’m now thinking along with fines and jail time, people found in contravention of the guidelines should now have to attend a one-day course, which could be delivered remotely, where the mechanics of pandemics are explained in words of one syllable and footage of people on ventilators is shown. A test at the end would determine whether or not the lesson had been learned. If not, rinse and repeat till it is.

Meanwhile, here in The Avenue, I shall mostly be chopping down more brambles today. I have an incinerator full of dry clippings and a pile of green shoots to be burned in the next day or so. And we might get an hour with the woodchipper as well. Once this is all cleared I’m not sure what we’ll put in the bare garden that’s left as the garden centres are closed!

Day 16 – Wednesday 8th April 2020

We’ve had an interesting day today.

First thing I noticed after opening the back door to have a ciggie was a strong smell of smoke before I’d even lit up. Seems someone a few doors down had decided that first thing in the morning was the time to have a bonfire. Not too sure of the legality of that as I thought they had to be after 6pm in the evening.

So I did a laundry load for Doris, and checked outside – bonfire still burning after an hour and a half!

I decided to leave hanging out the laundry and do a shop at Aldi. The queue was round the carpark and halfway out again. Half an hour later, having sent Martin home, I finally got inside. I have to say, I’m not sure if they’ve reduced the number allowed in the shop at one time, hence the queue, but it was really nice to get round without fighting my way past Friends Reunited reunions and wrinklies discussing their latest drug haul from the GP. So I got almost everything on my list and Doris’ list as well.

Back home, coffee and put the laundry out now that the smell of smoke had disappeared.

Then we had some work to do. Martin has the concession to keep our council’s public notice boards up-to-date with event posters. Generally these are a mix of council events and other events taking place in the area. Obviously, since the lockdown, all events have been cancelled and we weren’t required to keep maintaining the boards.

Last week, we had an email asking if we could put up some coronavirus-related posters produced by the council. So, this afternoon we had a nice drive around the area, cleaning all the old posters from the boards and replacing them with ones that offer a contact number for people who need help and a website address for volunteers.

As it was a lovely day, and the tide was in, it made a very pleasant change, especially as I haven’t been out in the car for over three weeks.

And we have a two month contract (at the moment) to ensure the posters aren’t damaged or removed, so we’ll be going out every ten days or so, checking and repairing or replacing any damaged ones.

We were surprised at the number of people out and about. I suspect there are walkers and cyclists who don’t do either from one year end to the next, but now they’re all out getting their exercise quota. We did see a group of people picnicking on the sea wall. They split up and moved away when we approached, but I’m sure they all got back together after we left. There were people sitting on the promenade, with their feet in the water (it was a very high tide today). And no sign of the police.

The road closures implemented last weekend had been lifted, but I’ll bet a pound to a penny that come Friday morning the seafront will be closed to traffic for four days, especially as Easter Monday is usually a motorbike day.

Back in January, I booked a flight with Ryanair for a friend to go to Italy on May 13 for five days. Today, I have received an email offering the option of changing the flights I booked for to another date in the next three months. I assume that really means in June, July or August as the offer is up to August 31, 2020.

That implies the flights I’ve booked aren’t going but, according to Ryanair THEY HAVEN’T BEEN CANCELLED YET.

Now, the rules on refunds (at this moment in time) are (from https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/flight-cancelled-refund-easyjet-ryanair-british-airways-ba-how-to-claim-a9444801.html):

“EU regulations stipulate that passengers are entitled to a refund for a cancelled flight within seven days. This applies to any flight between two countries within the European Union or from the EU to a non-EU country, and any flight from a non-EU country to the EU on an EU airline.

However, amid the mass grounding of aircraft, UK airlines are lobbying for a relaxation of the regulations that would mean they could defer payment.Airlines UK, representing British Airways, easyJet, Jet2, TUI Airways and Virgin Atlantic, has asked the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy for a “refund holiday” until the pandemic is over.

The airlines’ organisation said: “Carriers should also be permitted to issue vouchers instead of refunds.

If the passenger insists on cash, rather than alternative flights, Airlines UK said: “Carriers should be permitted to defer payment.”

As yet, this suggested rule change has not been approved, meaning travellers are still entitled to their money back within the stipulated seven-day period.

Unlike some of its rivals, Ryanair is still offering a straightforward online form to fill out in order to secure a refund for a cancelled flight: refundclaims.ryanair.com/“

So I filled out that form, and had it rejected on the grounds that the flights are not cancelled.

Ryanair have a notice on the website stating they have limited scheduled flights up to April 16. That means they haven’t yet cancelled flights after that date.

So my feeling is that as the weeks roll by Ryanair will extend that date, and until we get to cancellations affecting May 13 it will not be possible to claim the refund.

That also means Airlines UK may well get the deferment they have asked for, so even when a refund is accepted, the actual payment may take some time to arrive.

Day 17 – Thursday 9th April 2020

Today is Maundy Thursday.

Tesco update: no slots till after April 29th. If I couldn’t get out, I’d have starved to death by now. It’s a bit incongruous that the government wants us to shop as infrequently as possible, the supermarkets are still rationing stuff, and you can’t get a delivery slot for love nor money (and even if you win the jackpot and do get a slot, by the time your order arrives half of it will be missing because it’s become unavailable). The end result is the queues at all the supermarkets.

And while I’m on a roll: I’m delighted that the Labour councillor / Mayor somewhere in Derbyshire who tweeted that Boris deserved to get Covid-19 and that he is the worst PM ever has not only lost the Labour whip but has also been suspended from her job as a paralegal, and is under investigation. Serves her right!

Here in The Avenue it’s another lovely day, so I think the garden must be the priority. The forecast for the next couple of days is good, though there is the possibility of rain on Saturday, so we’d better have another bonfire tonight and get the grass cut tomorrow.

And Martin has decided he needs a haircut. As this is something I’ve done in my past life, he’s willing for me to have a crack at it. I did suggest just buzzing it all off, but I’m not sure he’s all that keen! When my son was small I always cut his hair – he never went to the barbers until he was eleven. And I always cut my husband’s hair as he hated ‘being trapped in the barber’s chair’ as he described it. 

I watched a little bit of yesterday’s government briefing, and I was appalled at the stupid questions being asked by journalists. I can almost sympathise with Trump when he gets pissed at the questions he’s asked. 

Journalism should be a responsible profession. Journalists should report. It’s not up to them to demand answers to questions that are clearly unanswerable – e.g. when will the lockdown end? If they had done their job properly and researched the subject they would know just how stupid they sound. 

My late husband was a journalist, and we often discussed how bad the standards of journalism had fallen since the introduction of 24hr TV, where every reporter wanted to get a soundbite. We could guess exactly the questions that would be asked in any circumstance: “Well Mrs Smith, how do you feel (now your house has blown up and all your family have been killed, and you’re on your way to hospital with two broken legs)? 

There is an interesting trick, that is years old, that newspapers do (and probably TV as well). On a slow news day, or to have an ‘exclusive’ that will sell more papers than a rival, make something up. ‘A spokesman for …’ means the journalist who wrote it. You can suggest any outrageous possibilities as long as there’s no actual attribution. And you can slap it on the front page in huge type e.g. ‘PM SUGGESTS THAT LOCKDOWN WILL END ON FRIDAY’. What the PM might have said, in a private conversation, is ‘Lockdown will end on Friday if pigs are seen flying over Buckingham Palace’. But why let the real story get in the way of a good headline!

Of course, come Friday, and no lifting of the lockdown, there will be a few paragraphs buried near the back of the next edition of the paper explaining that as ten times as many people are now infected the lifting of the lockdown had to be postponed. But the outcome will have been achieved as more papers will have been sold. Even with TV, as most channels are commercial and therefore rely on advertising revenue, they want as many eyeballs as possible watching their channel.

And that is why I don’t watch TV news, I don’t buy newspapers either. I do read one online newspaper, and cross-check any stories that seem improbable or are obviously advertising puffs (yes, I’m looking at you Mail Online).

It’s amazing how the core of a story can be twisted in so many ways, depending on the will of the publisher.

Oh dear! I feel another rant coming on! Why are our MPs, who earn over £80k minimum plus £30k expenses per year, being given access to a further £10k ‘to cover the cost of working from home for them and their staff’. They should be refunding £10k in expenses as neither they nor their staff have travelling expenses, nor any other expenses. Apparently it’s to cover the cost of electricity (?) and buying laptops etc.

I really don’t believe that anyone working for HM Gov in any way doesn’t have modern electronic equipment and a broadband connection already, and as for electricity costs – just how much does it cost to power a laptop and printer? I can answer that question, because I know how to use Google, and the answer is 5p per 8hr day for a laptop, 1p per day for a router, and 20p for a laser printer.

But never mind, we wouldn’t want our masters to be discomforted by having to actually pay for something out of their own pockets. And I notice there is no suggestion of furloughing MPs even though most of them contribute very little under normal circumstances. But I’ll bet a load of HoC minions have been laid off, though I can’t be bothered to check that.

***

One question I had has been answered – how would HM The Queen distribute the Maundy Money this year? She sent it by Royal Mail!!

I have just read the headline of an op-ed piece by Piers Morgan who is apparently slagging off the Prime Minister about his handling of the pandemic. I couldn’t be bothered to read the actual story where he’s claiming we’re being led by flawed experts instead of our elected leaders.

Here’s the thing: name me one, just one, elected Member of Parliament who has any expertise in pandemics. Anyone? Thought not. In fact, most Members have very little experience of the real world – there’s a newly elected Labour lady who’s literally straight out of school FGS –  and not one has any experience of running a country when they are first elected.

The country is actually run by those unelected mandarins – the Civil Service. The Civil Service uses external experts as and when necessary, because they aren’t experts themselves.

To anyone moaning about how badly Boris is handling the situation I say this: given the knowledge he had, what would you have done? I defy anyone to come up with an answer that everyone would accept. The man is damned no matter what course he takes: herd immunity = lots of people die; lockdown = people lose jobs and businesses fail. What other options are/were available? 

Day 18 – Friday 10th April 2020

Good Friday. Happy Birthday Dad – he would have been 107 today.

It was being reported yesterday that the barriers around town were being raised to prevent people from driving or parking on the seafront, like last week. It’ll be interesting to see how many people still try to visit Southend for the day.

I saw a short video yesterday of two people picnicking in a park somewhere (not local) and, when rousted by the police, claiming ‘We didn’t know’. I also saw a video of an idiot Chief Constable saying he could start searching peoples’ shopping trolleys for ‘non-essential’ items. This was quickly shot down by the Home Secretary, who has up till now been conspicuous by her absence. 

A couple of days ago I came across this post:

“If you’re not using this time to rest, reset, and prioritise your purpose and people in your life, you my friend are wasting an opportunity you may never get again. The world literally stopped and shifted for you to get your shit together. If this is torture for you, you need to find out why.”

I cannot be the only one who has, on many occasions, wished for an extra week between Sunday and Monday. Well, we have that extra week, and a lot more.

Because the whole world has shut down, the status quo has been maintained – we’re all in the same boat. So as I see it, this is a bit like a wormhole – once the lockdown is lifted things will resume from where they left off. But in the intervening time, while we’re in the wormhole, we can become better prepared than we were to take advantage of the undoubted explosion in demand for whatever product or service we offer.

But for now, I have declared a four-day weekend, and we shall be doing weekend things and leaving the shop till next week. So out in the garden again as long as it’s sunny.

Day 19 – Saturday 11th April 2020

Easter Saturday.

And we have woken to the headlines that the Covid-19 problem may last 18 months, apparently.

I have a theory.

In this country, governance is by consent. Mostly that means we elect people to deal with stuff on our behalf and we’re willing to accept reasonable constraints for the benefit of society as a whole.

Occasionally, we, the people, decide that our elected representatives have got it wrong – the iniquitous Council Tax back in the Eighties, for example – and we make our displeasure clear.

But I believe that government and the media ‘test the waters’ when it comes to possible scenarios. So we have the media ‘flying a kite’ and suggesting ‘something’ might happen, or be introduced, and then monitoring the responses. I think that’s exactly what happened before the lockdown, and that’s what’s happening with the suggestion that curtailments may last for 18 months. The latter I think is as a direct response to the constant questions about when restrictions will be lifted and things get back to normal.

It is understandable that workers and business owners are desperate to resume normal life, as the support offered by the government is only a sticking plaster over the huge wound left when almost every business was closed with no warning (though even six months warning would not have actually helped at all in most cases). 

There is no simple resolution that would be considered timely. Everything takes time, and to suggest a vaccine could be developed and tested in a couple of months is foolhardy, and probably dangerous. 

But the longer we are in stasis, the higher the financial burden on the country, which means the taxpayers. And here we have another problem: there were (and still are) a lot of people on benefits who don’t pay tax (and in some cases have never paid tax). Which means the pool of people who will be paying the cost of the lockdown through increased taxation is not very large, and I can see that attempts to ramp up income tax, corporation tax, and VAT (the three main sources of government revenue) will provoke a backlash against people on benefits.

I don’t think the government had any other choice than to support business and workers at this time, because we need to get the economy going and growing again once restrictions are lifted; the alternative of millions of people applying for benefits as business went bankrupt would be impossible to finance if there were no taxes revenues coming in.

Back in The Avenue, we had another bonfire last night, and we can now see the back fence of the garden. Probably one more, and another go with the wood chipper will see several years of prunings disposed of.

Martin took Doris out for a short trip in the wheelchair yesterday. I feel quite sorry for her as she’s been stuck inside her small apartment for over three weeks, with Martin as her only visitor. She should have been relocated to her daughter’s home in Ilfracombe where she would have had company. Instead she spends 22 hrs a day alone, relying on us for shopping and cooking. It’s her 97th birthday in two weeks, and that’s going to be a dismal affair.

I read the Daily Fail, as I’ve already admitted. And after doing a bit more gardening (filling the incinerator again), cooking up a batch of cottage pies for Doris, and registering a friend’s film script in case of plagiarism, I have now returned to read the rest of the day’s offerings.

A story headlined “Terrified public are ‘very very worried’ “, which references a survey by YouGov and Imperial College says that nine in ten people are complying with the restrictions, is immediately followed by another story headlined “Ninety percent of Britons are following the government’s ‘stay at home’ rules” which references a survey by… you guessed it – Imperial College.

The first story caught my eye because the first thought that went through my head when I saw the headlines was ‘You did a good job then, scaring the shit out of people with the constant stream of stories about washing fruit and veggies in soap, bleaching all the supermarket packaging, suggestions that 6ft should be 24ft, claiming coughing can spread droplets over two aisles in the supermarket, and, the one I like best: only wearing one pair of shoes outdoors and never bringing them inside (or bleaching them if you must bring them in).

I know the Daily Fail is served by journalists who aren’t out of junior school, but all of those ideas are crazy. There is a thing called ‘payload’ – how much of anything you need to come into contact with before it actually overwhelms your immune system. For most people, it’s actually quite high – someone coughing or sneezing in your face, for example. You can also get a high payload from repeatedly touching surfaces that are contaminated and then putting your fingers in your mouth (or handling food when you eat). Unless you are immuno-compromised, coming into contact with low levels of any virus (flu, cold, Covid-19) isn’t actually a bad thing, as your immune system can and will fight off a small viral load, and you will develop immunity.

That’s why there is a disparity between those who have tested positive (frontline workers who are exposed for 12 hours a day with inadequate PPE) and the rest of the untested population, a large proportion of whom will probably have had low-level exposure and might have felt a bit off-colour for a couple of days but never developed the tell-tale high temperature and dry cough. 

This means the ‘herd immunity’ figure of 70-80% of the population needing to be infected and recover has mutated to a suggestion that if 20% of the population become infected (and know it because they’ve been tested) that would be good enough i.e some 60% of the population will be assumed to have had such mild symptoms that they were not aware they were infected.

Another story “Don’t let people pat your dog” reminded me of the claims that Covid-19 can stick to a dog’s fur and then you’ll catch it when you pet your dog. Firstly; see above. Secondly, this reminds me of the people in our local park out walking their dogs, many of which are off the lead, despite the notices saying ‘Keep your dog on a lead’. Martin and I were over there a week or so ago and met another couple that he knew. We stopped briefly, maintaining the requisite distance, and chatted for a couple of minutes, during which a large floppy dog came bounding over to the other couple and the chap did what we all do and bent down to pat it. The dog’s owner, some 30 ft away then yells at the top of her voice ‘DON’T TOUCH MY DOG!’ Stupid woman.

But further down there is a good news story: ‘Coronavirus vaccine could be ready by September with an 80% likelihood it will work, says Oxford University expert leading research team’. Hang on… didn’t I read that it’ll take 18 months for a vaccine to be available?

And the Government idiot of the day must be Matt Hancock: “Matt Hancock repeats his claim that NHS workers are ‘over-using precious PPE’ ” What does he think they’re doing with the stuff? Eating it? Selling it? He’s almost as bad as Trump who declared that New York (I think it was) had more than sufficient respirators (despite everyone else agreeing they were woefully short for the expected demand) and if they didn’t have enough he wanted to know what they’d done with them.

The Hancock story is right next to this headline: “NHS medics fighting on the coronavirus frontline are forced to cut up plastic curtains and use them as gowns as PPE shortage rages on”. 

My last observation is this headline: “Scientists say … that isolating infected people at home is not a good strategy”.

There you go. You pays your money and you takes your choice. It is obvious that everyone and his dog (hopefully not infected) is an expert on some aspect of this pandemic, and they are not short of column inches to tell us. In truth, no-one really knows where this is going, so based on how well the human race has survived other pandemics with less information and far less hygiene I think just being sensible and not overreacting and just sitting it out within the restrictions is the best course.

***

The police are having a pretty hard job at the moment, but there are extremes on both sides.

Today there is a video of a (white) policeman engaging with a (black) chap and accusing him of breaching the regulations. The black chap says he’s delivering to his vulnerable Mum; the policeman doesn’t believe him, handcuffs him, and arrests him for not giving his name and address (an arrestable offense under the regulations). This was later blamed on the policeman being over-enthusiastic, and an apology was offered. Still a very poor show.

But then I saw a video of a woman sitting on a bench in a park, doing nothing apparently. When challenged, she admitted to having been there for over an hour, claiming to the policeman that she was ‘mentally exercising’ and that was allowed under the regulations. No matter what he said, she insisted she had the right to be there doing what she was doing. Actually, she didn’t have the right as the guidance is quite clear: exercise means moving. Pity that the policeman didn’t ask for her details as I’m sure she’d have refused and he could have arrested her and she’d have got to test her interpretation of the law in court.

Day 20 – Sunday 12th April 2020

Easter Sunday.

Today is a day I would have cooked lunch for what I call the waifs and strays; people who I know live alone and don’t cook for themselves. Sadly, the lockdown means Doris can’t come over for lunch, so I’ll put all the ingredients in Tupperware and send it over to be reheated, probably for lunch tomorrow.

I’m getting a bit bored now with every day being the same. I’m not inclined to go out daily for exercise – I didn’t do it before the lockdown so why should I suddenly take up exercise now? I only go out twice a week, and only to local supermarkets. I can get out into the garden, and it’s showing the results of my work, so I’m not actually trapped indoors. So I think the problem is not being able to plan for the future. 

I saw a story in the Daily Fail that suggests things could be back to ‘normal’ by mid-June. I don’t believe it. With our pathetically low testing  and poor reporting of deaths, we really don’t know where we are on the curve, and therefore we can’t judge just when it will be safe to resume normal activities. I still think we are in this for a longer time. 

*****

We have had a very productive few days here in The Avenue:

Martin has had a haircut at Chez Maison, and it didn’t turn out too badly.

The grass has been cut, and that always improves the look of the garden.

Almost all the ten-foot thicket of brambles is down and chopped up, and some already burned as we’ve had two bonfires, and the incinerator is full again.

And what I laughingly call the patio has been rearranged with both tables and brollies in position.

I am knackered, and I’ll pay for all this work tomorrow, but it was worth it as the weather is forecast to break tonight and I am definitely a fair-weather gardener.

Roast chicken dinner in half an hour and an early night for me!

Day 21 – Monday 13th April 2020

Easter Monday.

Overnight we have had a major change in the weather. I woke up at 5am and looked out through the bedroom window. I could see one of the brollies – the cream one – but the brown one seemed to have disappeared. As it was still dark, and moonless, I thought maybe I just couldn’t see it but I had to check anyway. Looked out of the back door and the brown brolly had climbed the wall between us and next door and was peering over. Luckily, as it is shorter than the cream one it had got stuck partially under it, and the pole was jammed in the table at an angle which had prevented it flying away altogether. So there I was, dressing gown and flipflops on, outside winding down both brollies against a fairly stiff wind. The brown brolly is in a weighted base, but I guess I didn’t tighten the screw down enough.

With the forecast for the next few days being dull and windy, we shan’t need the brollies anyway.

Today is the end of our third week of lockdown. Where has the time gone? Apart from a bit of faffing in the garden I really don’t seem to have done much. And as I’ve now been gifted a P G Wodehouse Omnibus, I can’t see much getting done for the foreseeable future!

I am an avid reader. It has been my practice in the past few years to take a couple of books when we go on holiday to Spain. These are for reading on the plane. I buy books at the bookstand on the promenade in Torrevieja and read those while we’re there, then give them back at the end of the holiday. I do have books on my iPad, but I far prefer reading the hard copy version.

I have just finished reading all 27 books in the Agatha Raisin series so I’m starting again. I can re-read some books many times quite happily. This is because I’m a greedy reader – I want to get to the end of the book and know the outcome, so I read very fast. The second and third times round I read slower, as I know the outcome, and pick up all the bits I missed the first time.

Apart from P G Wodehouse my favourite authors are mostly science fiction writers: Isaac Asimov, Larry Niven, Robert Heinlein, etc. Some years ago I cleared out a lot of books that were cluttering up the flat, but the sci-fi books remain. I also like Agatha Christie, Colin Dexter (Inspector Morse) and Conan Doyle. There are odd books, such as 84 Charing Cross Road and Hitler, My Part In His Downfall. Another favourite trilogy is the five books (yes, I know) by Douglas Adams called The Hitchhikers’ Guide To The Galaxy. If I didn’t have the internet I’d spend all day every day reading.

There is no news today. To be accurate, there is no new news. It’s all the same old, same old so I shall not be commenting today.

Day 22 – Tuesday 14th April 2020

Or Day 1, Week 4. If it wasn’t for writing this blog, I would have no idea what day or date it is by now.

Sidebar:

I have given up checking the Tesco website daily, but I have just had a peek – no slots for anything before 4th May. It doesn’t really bother me, as I can get out to shop, but I pity those who relied on the Government announcement that they would be on a special list guaranteeing them delivery slots, because that just hasn’t happened. The list happened. People were told they were on the list. Some of those people were regular long-time users of the home delivery service, so much so that they actually paid a premium to guarantee a regular time and day, which was news to me that such a thing was available (but it makes more money for the supermarkets so why wouldn’t they offer it?). The supermarkets were given the list, apparently. 

And there it all fell down. They didn’t set aside slots, mostly because all the slots had already been taken. So, instead, they dumped a lot of their bookings, including those from people who paid the premium, many of whom were on the list, and instead opened up slots at midnight each day. Call me cynical if you like, but as many of those deemed vulnerable are likely to be elderly and/or infirm, I can’t see them waiting up till midnight each day just to try and do some shopping. There are also tales from those who have managed to place an order for three weeks hence finding that as the days pass items are being removed as ‘unavailable’ yet when people go to a supermarket the shelves seem to be stocked up.

Considering the massive increase in spending reported by the supermarkets for February and March (because of all the panic-buying) it’s not unreasonable to expect that supermarkets make more of an effort than just laying down new rules such as ‘only one person per family allowed instore’.

End Sidebar

So, today, the news is all about how Spain, Italy and Austria are lifting some restrictions, while the UK will undoubtedly be told on Thursday that we have to maintain the status quo for a further three weeks until at least 7th May. This extension doesn’t surprise me at all. I suspect it has been decided by our masters that three week tranches would be bearable for most people (not counting the scofflaws for whom one day would be too long it appears) and that once people were used to the situation similar tranches would be well-received. 

This is borne out by a story in the Daily Fail with the results of a survey showing some 92% of people would follow government guidelines even if they disagreed with them, and 44% think the lockdown could be stricter. Must be music to the Cabinet’s ears.

This is bolstered by another story today headlined ‘Should I accept the cakes a kind neighbour left on my doorstep?’, the expert’s answer: ‘I would advise you to dispose of the whole package, including the cakes, and then wash your hands thoroughly’. He didn’t add ‘wearing full PPE’, for some reason. As the comments on this post state – what is the difference between cakes from your neighbour and cakes from the supermarket, or any food from any delivery company for that matter? Once again, scare stories which are designed to keep the public compliant, thus saving the government the inconvenience of testing. At this moment in time, most people don’t have this virus (even if you multiply the number of positive cases by 10), and while I would certainly advocate those who are most at risk take no chances at all, for the rest of us it’s a bit like crossing the road – look both ways and don’t run in front of a bus and you’ll be fine.

Martin checks the figures every day. I don’t because they aren’t accurate. So today we are told there are 88,621 confirmed cases and 11,329 deaths.

Lack of testing outside hospitals (except for the great and the good of course) means the confirmed cases figure is meaningless, except for the fact it shows how many people had such a severe infection that they needed to be hospitalised. Estimates are that 80% of those infected will have mild symptoms and will not need hospitalisation. So multiplying the number of confirmed cases (20%) by five gives 443,105 which is probably the number of people actually infected. 

The mortality rate of this virus is very roughly estimated at 3% so multiplying the number of reported deaths (a very inaccurate figure also apparently depending on which stories you read) gives the number of total infections as 377,633.

Either way, less than half a million people in the UK are probably infected at this time, which is about 0.8% of the population. 

So the chances of coming into contact with an infected person, without lockdown, is still very low. With lockdown, it’s even lower, simply because we restrict how many times we put ourselves into a position where we might come into contact with an infected person.

The basis for the lockdown wasn’t how many people were infected but how many would be infected if nothing was done, and this modelling was done using previous pandemic models.

The Spanish flu lasted for two years from January 1918 to December 1920 and infected about 500 million people, about a quarter of the world’s population at the time. This H1N1 virus would have run rampant through populations, and it killed around 10% of those infected. As with the Covid-19, there was no treatment, although for a time large doses of aspirin were recommended (later to have been found to have poisoned people to death by causing pulmonary odema). But restrictions were finally introduced and communities imposed quarantines, ordered citizens to wear masks and shut down public places, including schools, businesses, churches and theatres. People were advised to avoid shaking hands and to stay indoors, libraries put a halt on lending books and regulations were passed banning spitting.

This is all very familiar to us today, as we are following exactly the same route, though hopefully earlier to reduce the number of people infected.

This virus will die out when there is no-one left to infect, either because it only comes into contact with people who’ve already had it, or it doesn’t come into contact with anyone so it can’t pass on. 

Yes, I’ve seen the reports that say people who’ve had the virus are testing positive again. There are two things to consider: 

1. How reliable are the tests? It appears that testing kits from China do not pass our scrutiny for reliability, in some cases failing by 50%, which means you might just as well toss a coin to determine if you’ve got the bug or not;
2. Recovering from a virus provides immunity. That doesn’t stop you getting infected again – how could it (Big warning notice to virus: I’ve had it, go away?) – but it does mean that your immune system can and will fight it successfully. People get the flu every year. People have flu jabs every year. Those who have the jabs think they won’t get the flu, but they’re wrong. They can and probably will get it, and feel a bit off-colour for a day or two and then recover without actually realising that’s what’s happened.

So reports of people being reinfected aren’t surprising. About 20 years ago I had norovirus. Came down with it on Christmas Day morning, thought I was dying for two days, and got up right as rain on the third day (just realised that makes me sound like Jesus!). So I was fine and went around happily for a week and got it again almost exactly seven days later, but the second bout wasn’t nearly so bad (and if you’ve had it you’ll know what I mean) and lasted for only a day or so before it disappeared for good.

One last thing: I am expecting the number of deaths to spike again during this coming week, as the pattern seems to follow about 7-8 days after testing positive and 8th April and 10th April had big spikes in confirmed cases.

I am baffled about PPE and the lack of it. 

According to frontline staff, they don’t have enough, and I’m not doubting them at all. 

Hancock thnks the staff are either lying or stealing apparently.

The bosses at the NHS say they can’t get hold of the stuff (because most of it comes from China?).

So how come there are numerous gofundme pages being set up to buy this equipment if lack of money is not the problem? 

Something very strange going on here.

****

I have just seen the figures put out last night by Southend Council: Confirmed cases 214, Deaths 79. For anyone following the stats, it must be clear that either these figures are wildly out, or that Southend is a plague hot-spot with 37% of those infected dying.

Playing with the figures as I did before:

If there are 214 recorded cases, that really means 1070 including those not tested.

Or, if there are 79 deaths, that really means there are a total of 2633 people infected.

Using the first calculation, that equates to about 0.6% of the borough population; and using the second calculation equates to 1.51% of the borough population.

I like maths. There is something comforting in being able to quantify things. But the figures that we’re being given fall into the quote popularised by Mark Twain: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

I also quite like T.H. Huxley’s description of a conversation thus: “Talked politics, scandal, and the three classes of witnesses—liars, damned liars, and experts.”

Day 23 – Wednesday 15th April 2020

Highlights of the day:

Bins got emptied

More stuff cut down in the garden

I’ve started correcting and categorising 3306 records in a database for Martin’s online shop. This is not a fast process

Things to look forward to tomorrow:

Shopping

Drive round town to check the posters we put up last week are still up

Another bonfire (if we don’t do it tonight)

More work on the database

Just one comment on a news story. Apparently we are all cleaning wrongly, according to an Australian woman who, surprise, surprise, runs a commercial cleaning company. Seems it should now take three times as long as normal, and we should all be using industrial hospital-grade cleaners and your average disinfectant and bleach isn’t good enough! Methinks her clients will be shocked when she starts sending in invoices for triple the usual cost! What a load of crap!!

Day 24 – Thursday 16th April 2020

Today we are expecting to be told officially that the lockdown will run for a further three weeks, which would mean till 7th May.

I feel very sorry for those who have spent so long preparing for the VE Day celebrations and have seen all that work wasted. It’s not as if they can do it next year either, as this is the 75th anniversary. And I suspect that many, if not most, of the old comrades who were looking forward to it might not survive another year.

But one old comrade, Captain Tom Moore, has done his bit again and raised over £12million by celebrating his 100th birthday walking round and round his garden. The old boy is pretty fit for his age – he’s got a treadmill at home – but the notion of the old chap walking round and round his 25m garden with a walking frame just seems to have struck a chord with nearly 700,000 people who’ve donated so far.

It is interesting that some of the narratives this morning seem to be driven by the orange blob across the pond. 

Having seen the number of deaths on US soil increase, instead of crowing about it (which was probably his first thought ‘We’ve got more deaths than anyone in the world! We’re doing great!’) he’s probably had it explained to him in words of one syllable that the figures look bad, so now he’s accusing every other country of faking their death rates, with only the US telling it like it is. 

And, in defending his strategy to date to the media, he’s now taking a pop at the WHO and China, though I wouldn’t disagree with that.

I believe that all governments, to a greater or lesser degree, lie to their populations. They may do it for good reason e.g. to avoid provoking a panic, but they all lie. I can understand that. What I don’t get is why they then try and perpetuate that lie, defending it in the face of reason. Not all the people are sheep. Some are cleverer than politicians, who, let’s face it, are not elected for their expertise but for their ability to con the voting public (the orange blob across the pond being the best self-confessed example of this).

I heard someone (possibly Matt Hancock) stating this morning (when questioned on the subject) that 27 NHS colleagues have died from coronavirus. Think about that. The current figures from the UK government are 98,476 cases and 12,868 deaths. Most of those cases are people who’ve been admitted to hospital – because they’re the only ones being tested – and many of the deaths will also have been in hospital. So whatever the NHS workers are doing to protect themselves with whatever resources they have obviously works.

Is there light at the end of the tunnel yet? I saw a video the other day answering this question: there is light, but it’s dim, because we don’t know how long is the tunnel. The suggestions have grown to two years now, with gradual relaxation of the global lockdowns, but until a vaccine is found (or possibly a treatment) this virus is going to bug us. As we’re coming into the summer we should have a period  where any congregating is outdoors, which will lessen the chance of cross-infection. But if there is no vaccine by the time the weather cools down again we could certainly see restrictions on large events, and maybe even small ones if they are indoors. This doesn’t bode well for Martin’s events this year.

But here in The Avenue it’s a nice day, which is promising to warm up nicely, so we will be shopping and doing the poster run. We had a burnup last night so I can chop down some more stuff to fill the incinerator today.

****

So it’s official, we are in lockdown for another three weeks. As the initial recommendation to the elderly and vulnerable was to isolate for twelve weeks, I think it’s likely that the majority of the current lockdown will last a further six weeks at least.

I spent two hours shopping today, though some of that was in the queue at Aldi. And I have to admit I bought what some might consider non-essential shopping: knitting wool. It’s essential as far as I’m concerned, and since Aldi was selling it, it seemed only right to buy it and help them out.

I see Captain Tom has now raised over £14 million, and finished his marathon round the garden.

We drove round town today checking the posters and all were still intact, which makes a change. Shame the tide was out, but there were still a lot of people along the seafront.

I have now almost cleared the whole of the back of the garden, and refilled the incinerator again. 

Day 25 – Friday 17th April 2020

It has become increasingly obvious to me that the global management of this pandemic is a total shambles.

I studied chemistry to degree level, and biology to A level, so I have some understanding of what this virus is and how it might be overcome, though I am not an expert by any means. But I am a good researcher, and I adopt verification system whenever I read yet another expert’s analysis, because they all seem to be touting something for their 15 minutes of fame. 

What I do know for certain is that no elected Member of Parliament in the UK, nor I suspect in any other country are epidemiologists. But an awful lot are bean-counters of one sort or another.

And that’s why we have this constant tug-of-war between the likes of the orange blob (who’s only interested in getting the economy going in order to boost his re-election chances) constantly belittling his advisors (who basically don’t want to see 25% of the population dead).

Here in the UK our bean-counters want to get the restrictions lifted, despite no-one really knowing the true extent of the spread of infection (through lack of testing), nor the true mortality rate (as up till now they have only been counting deaths occurring in hospitals). This is compounded by a suggestion that Covid-19 need not appear on a death certificate (well, that’ll keep the numbers down). And yet, everyone is looking at China and saying ‘you’re lying’. Pot, kettle, and black I think.

Globally no-one knows how many are infected because it would require everyone to be tested, and then retested if they become symptomatic, and that ain’t gonna happen.

And the same for the mortality rate – the best guess here would be to look at typical deaths in the same week in previous years, and see how many more have been reported this year. At least that would include the deaths in care homes, and those who die at home without having been tested.

I am aware that the closure of businesses coupled with the financial support given by the government has come at a huge cost. But as every country is similarly affected, the status quo can be maintained – the UK will not be in a poorer position c.f. the rest of the world. Every country will take a massive hit to its manufacturing capabilities; they will all have companies that have ceased trading; people will have lost jobs globally.

When and if we finally get back to ‘normal’ (which won’t be the normal we’re used to) hopefully new businesses will arise from the ashes; people will learn new skills whilst unemployed; new ways of doing things will become the norm.

I saw a post on Facebook today which really demonstrated what a shallow mindless world we have generated because of the internet:

“Since the beauty salons, hairdressers, and nail bars have closed, selfies have dropped like the stock market”

Certainly there has been a dearth of posts from ‘influencers’ since lockdown, yet no-one is complaining. So that might be a good thing to have come out of all this.

Meantime back in The Avenue, I have nearly finished the Lockdown Jumper. Now I have to decide whether to knit up the fluffy wool I bought for me, or the aran wool to make a Guernsey jumper for Martin. Me first, I think, cos he’ll not need his till winter.

And something that made me smile: Cringe & Ginge managed to raise £21,000 from their 13 million supposed followers for Archie’s birthday charity stunt. 

Captain Tom has raised £19,208,952 19,234,771 19,248,569 (to date), gifted by just under one million people. Which just goes to show that it’s not about who you are but about how much you care about people that opens wallets. And Tom and Michael Ball are releasing a charity single to raise even more dosh!

Day 26 – Saturday 18th April 2020

All media are suffering from the loss of advertising revenue, apparently because the big brands don’t want their ads appearing next to Covid-19 stories, so I suspect that some at least would be willing to sell any space on their pages. Which makes me wonder, considering all that’s going on at the moment – especially the orange blob inciting riots in the USA – how much Cringe and Ginge’s PR company paid the Daily Fail to have their dog-walking pics as the lead story for at least 12 hours.

And since I’ve mentioned it – can you believe that the so-called Leader of the Free World has openly tweeted against Democratic governors and incited his followers to break the lockdown in some states? Of course, when infections rise in those states it won’t be his doing.

I’ve had an idea. I know there are people in the UK who don’t like the lockdown, or don’t think they’re at risk, or don’t believe the virus either exists or is deadly (though any virus can be deadly), or simply feel they have the right to determine what they will and will not do, so I have a solution.

Most people see the sense in respecting the recommendations to minimise contact – something like 95% apparently – so we are only considering a small number of people (about 3 million across the country). Let’s have a system that says you can avoid lockdown, so long as you carry a card that says ‘I understand about Covid-19 but I choose to deal with it in my own way’ and a second statement that says ‘If I become ill with symptoms of the virus I do not want any form of NHS or private treatment’.

They would need to carry this card like an ID card, to prove that they had opted-out of the lockdown, but otherwise they’d be free to behave as they wished. They would also be registered on a database, in the event they destroyed the card before heaving up at the local hospital gasping for breath. It’d be a bit like a DNR notice, but would kick in before any treatment was offered.

That should keep the conspiracy theorists happy.

I am now getting very worried living in Southend. According to the latest figures released by Southend Council yesterday there are 239 confirmed cases in the area and 116 deaths – a 48.5% mortality rate, which is a little higher than the global estimate of 2-5%.

[And as I write I see Cringe & Ginge’s money has run out and they’ve been replaced by what should have been the top story – the rebellion in the USA.]

There has been a story online for a day or so stating there is no proof that, once having caught the coronavirus, you’d be immune from catching it again. That’s not how immunity works. Immunity works when you catch it a second time and your body can quickly fight it because you have antibodies. I really despair at the woeful lack of education in such basic science. 

From the ‘You Couldn’t Make It Up’ files: members of the House of Lords are demanding their £323  tax-free daily payment for any days they attend ‘virtual’ proceedings. Seems they only get the dosh if they actually turn up at the House at the moment, but because many are elderly they say it’s age discrimination if they don’t get paid. If ever there was a case to be made not to pay these people at all, that must be it. 

Here in The Avenue we have woken to a damp day. At least that’ll stop the hoards flocking to the seafront. However it doesn’t help my ambition to have another bonfire as the stuff that was tinder-dry is now damp. But that’s OK, the forecast is decent for the next couple of days so we’ll just reschedule.

I am considering improving my mind by signing up for a free course or two from Harvard University. They have 64 on offer, requiring a few hours a week for a few weeks, all done at your own pace. So I have signed up for Rhetoric: The Art of Persuasive Writing and Public Speaking. It starts on 12th May. Martin says I’ll never use it as I don’t like speaking in public. Martin also says that we could be out of lockdown by then. Maybe Martin should sign up for ‘Fat Chance: Probability from the Ground Up’.

Also from the ‘You Couldn’t Make It Up’ files:

I have copied this directly from the Daily Fail as it’s short and I couldn’t have precised it any better:

 “An online tournament set up for village cricket teams in the lockdown has been scrapped amid claims of vote rigging. 

Clubs in the Leicestershire and Rutland Cricket League were drawn against each other and had to seek votes on social media, with the best-supported team going through to the next round. 

But the competition descended into chaos after some players allegedly tried to influence the results with cash backhanders and fake social media accounts. 

It forced the league to announce on Twitter: ‘Virtual County Cup has been cancelled. Sadly, some individuals have decided to not enter in the spirit of the competition as it was intended.’ 

The online tournament, which had 55 entries, was at the quarter final stage when it was axed on Thursday. 

Mark Barber of Leicestershire County Cricket Club, which organised the cup, said: ‘It was meant to be a bit of fun to help people interact with the game at a time when they should have been getting ready to start their seasons.

‘In the end it just wasn’t worth all the debate and bickering.’ 

Among the clubs accused of bending the rules was Melton Mowbray-based Egerton Park, whose former players include England cricketer Stuart Broad. “

Vote-rigging, cash backhanders and fake social media accounts FFS – what is sport in the UK coming to?

Seems I was a bit premature is suggesting all the Instagram influencers had gone into hiding. A model named Cara Delevingne thinks she can save the world with her 45 million Instagram followers as she gets set to launch a charity to ‘influence government and public opinion’ with tours and festivals. She is to launch an organisation with the ambitious title Initiative Earth. It will ‘seek to influence public opinion’ and ‘to influence governmental and other bodies’, according to official documents. 

I have had a quick read through the story but I can’t see any mention of her credentials, save that of being a vastly overpaid model, and the godchild of Dame Joan Collins.

Silly me – the bit I missed: she’s setting up a ‘charity’. Well, at 27 she’s obviously getting a bit old for modelling so the money will soon dry up. What better way to maintain your lifestyle than by getting the plebs to pay for it. If each of her 45 million Instagram followers chip in just 50p a year she’d be sitting pretty. 

****

I’ve just discovered that Finish dishwasher tablets aren’t all they’re cracked up to be. I thought my dishwasher was nearing the end of its days – it’s over 11 years old and apart from having to replace the door lock three years ago it doesn’t owe me anything. But just recently I’d noticed that plates and cutlery were coming out still dirty. I thought the jets might be blocked (cos I’ve never cleaned them) but they seemed OK. The only thing I’ve been doing differently is using Finish tabs because I couldn’t get the ones I usually buy. Luckily I got a supply of my regular ones a week or so ago – el cheapo three-in-one Aldi, lemon-flavoured. 

So last night I loaded the dishwasher (and I have to say it’s being loaded every damn day at the moment cos I’m cooking every damn day. I shall be glad when this lockdown is ended and the takeaways are open!) and I put in a brand new shiny Aldi tab (complete with dissolvable wrapper) and lo! and behold – all the dishes are clean.

And just in case it was a fluke I’ve loaded it again this morning, so we shall see if my theory is correct.

Here’s a story I couldn’t resist taking a peek at, just to see what the ‘experts’ say: ‘Should I now wash my clothes at 60 degrees to help beat coronavirus?’

The experts say yes, basically; the government says wash according to the manufacturers’ instructions as you normally would. Apparently the NHS say that even under normal circumstances all underwear, towels and household linen should be washed at 60 degrees – or at least 40 degrees – with an anti-bacterial laundry product.

Now that raises a couple of things: firstly, if washing your hands with ordinary soap and water from the hot tap (55degC, but actually lower because that temperature would burn you, so more like 35deg either by using a mixer tap or filling a bowl with hot and cold) and rubbing thoroughly is sufficient to remove all traces of coronavirus from your hands, why should you run your washing machine at any hotter temperature, as the motion of the machine should provide a similar friction.

And…

The prevalence for using anti-bacterial anything is not good. The more anti-bacterial products we use, the more resistant the bacteria become. I know coronavirus isn’t a bacteria, but it is capable of being destroyed by anti-bac stuff as well as good ol’ bleach. I would argue that anti-bac-laden products should be used sparingly, not every day. 

Day 27 – Sunday 19th April 2020

If it wasn’t for the day and date above I really wouldn’t know if it was Easter, Christmas or Bank Holiday Monday. This lockdown is putting everyone’s brains into holiday mode, where the actual days don’t matter.

Which got me thinking about why people are getting so stressed. I know part of it is to do with the constraints, and part of it is financial, but otherwise it’s one long holiday.

I have had long holidays – I once went on a 55 day cruise, on my own. And my days have been free-wheelin’ for a long time, so the lack of routine doesn’t bother me. Yet still there is an undercurrent of something – Martin describes it as restlessness, but that’s not what I feel.

I think I know what it is. If we had all been sent to jail for 3 months or 6 months (which is sort of what is happening) we would have an end date. We would know absolutely to the day when we would be released. So we could then plan for the future. And that’s what’s wrong – at least as far as I’m concerned. I like to plan for the future, and to have things to look forward to. Right now I’m convinced that nothing we’ve planned for this year will materialise – no Leigh Rock events, no Leigh Vintage Record Fairs, and no holiday to Spain in September. Strangely enough, I can live with that, because I can plan for next year instead. And there’s the rub, because without a treatment/vaccine/herd immunity we could be sitting here in 12 months not much further forward than we are now. So it’s like having an indeterminate jail sentence, and that’s legally considered cruel and unusual punishment.

I am not one who would chase the government for dates, unlike the idiot reporters every day, as I know they don’t know any more than I do (and in some cases less), and I’m not blaming the government for the current situation – it’s easy to have 20:20 hindsight, not so easy to have 20:20 foresight.

So I am going to have to find little things to look forward to, within the constraints. We are concentrating on the garden, which hasn’t been touched for years, and I’m planning what we can do once the weeds and junk are cleared. And I’ve started knitting the next jumper. 

Captain Tom is still walking and still raising money – he’s up to £25.5 million right now. Just out of curiousity, I thought I’d look and see how much money JustGiving has made from all that cash going through their website.

They used to charge 5% off the top, but I see that has been scrapped – I have a vague memory of there being an outrage when someone else raised millions for some other good cause and JustGiving’s take was calculated. So now they charge about 2% as a card processing fee (but I bet they make a little bit on that), and they ask for a ‘tip’ on top of the donation to ‘keep us running and improving’.

Which is a least more honest than Change.Org, the website that allows you to petition for changes. There, once you have signed a petition you are encouraged to ‘chip in’ a few pounds for whatever cause you’ve just supported. I, and an awful lot of others, assumed this cash went to the cause, but it doesn’t. It goes to Change.Org, and they use it to promote the petitions. I don’t suppose people would mind that, so I’m not sure why they don’t make it clear who gets the money.

It seems a bit rich that Victoria Beckham can use the government’s furlough scheme to pay her workers while she and her husband shell out £17 million on yet another property, as well as funding a £100,000 birthday bash for Brooklyn, given that I thought the scheme was for viable businesses to enable them to retain staff and her business hasn’t made a profit in any year since it started in 2008, actually losing £12.3 million in the last accounting year. Still, I guess as they’re down to their last £335 million they need all the help they can get.

****

The news today is all about when restrictions will be lifted. Of course people want a time frame, but the virus doesn’t have one. We don’t have a vaccine nor treatment. The suggestion that businesses like hairdressers would be able to re-open is ludicrous. How could they achieve social distancing whilst cutting someone’s hair? They’d all have to be kitted out with PPE, replaced after each client, and since we can’t get enough of the stuff for hospitals and care homes I really don’t see that hairdressers are a priority.

On the Andrew Marr show (which I didn’t see but Martin did) a Professor from Oxford University explained how they were working to develop a vaccine and were now at the stage where they could test their product on people – fit, healthy, youngish people – to make sure it wasn’t lethal. Then I guess it will be offered to the most vulnerable first, and then to health workers. Because even if they had a working vaccine today it’d take some time to actually produce enough to treat the UK population, even if they were making it by the thousand gallons a time (and that’s probably not possible as these compounds often don’t work if you scale up production).

There was something I read a few days ago about lifting some restrictions based on the ‘bubble’ theory. One of the biggest gripes is that families are unable to meet, but the bubble theory would allow that, even under current restrictions. In short, the theory says we all have a bubble of people we interact with regularly – family, colleagues, neighbours – whoever it might be. So, we could move from a system that only allows us to meet those we actually live with, to one where we can also meet with members of our bubble. Obviously, there will be crossovers, but it would take a lot of the pressure off.

We are now completing our fourth week of isolation. If we have been following the guidelines, our chances of catching the virus have been greatly reduced. Those now most at risk are health workers (because they’re dealing with people who have got the virus), bus drivers (who are exposed to many people every day, some of whom may be infectious and not know it and some of whom know they have the virus but still travel to work if their employer refuses to pay sick pay etc.), supermarket workers (because there will be infectious people shopping), and anyone working in a closed environment e.g. in an office or warehouse etc. (once again if social distancing is lax and sick pay is withheld), plus the idiots who think they’re invincible and ignore the rules.

If anyone in those categories (except the last, as they don’t need it, do they?) has the correct PPE then their risk is lessened. 

So for most of the population, I would think that after another three weeks of lockdown it would be reasonable to allow members of a bubble to interact. I’m sure if people felt that, by maintaining the current restrictions, they would be able to mix with local family and friends say from 8th May (which is the Early Spring Bank Holiday weekend when the 75th Anniversary of D-Day was to have been celebrated), they would be far more willing to accept the situation.

I’m not suggesting a free-for-all, with everyone flocking to parks, nature reserves and beaches, but a chance for granny to meet the grandchildren, and for families to get together, especially if older members have been isolated because of age.

This all supposes that the stats show a regular and sustained reduction in the mortality rate – the rate of infection is an unknown quantity as long as testing is so limited. 

Day 28 – Monday 20th April 2020

Another sunny day, sadly. Sadly because yesterday it was sunny, and once again there were a lot of people down on the seafront. I’m beginning to think that mandatory facemasks might be a good idea, if people simply won’t stop congregating. Coupled with a hefty, payable right now, fine if you’re caught outside without one.

I saw a Facebook post that said:

‘You can’t fix stupid. Seems you can’t quarantine it either.’

I saw a post this morning on Facebook, and as I’m aware this blog is being read by other people, though it was intended only for myself (which is why some people may not agree with what I write), I include a link because this article from the Los Angeles Times is well worth reading:

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-19/coronavirus-lessons-from-great-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic

There is something comforting in denial.

Which probably explains why call-me-Harry put on his honorary PhD-in-pandemics hat and gown and, from an 8 hour flight (if there were flights) away from his family, friends and heritage, made what is being called an ‘outrageous’ claim, in a podcast, that things in the UK were not as bad as some media are making them out to be. I’m not sure what media he’s referring to, as he didn’t specify, but it can’t be the Daily Fail as he has no problem seeing his pap pics in that publication.

As you were! From the ‘You Couldn’t Make It Up’ files:

STOP PRESS: Me-again & call-me Harry have now officially boycotted the British press. In a letter to The Grauniad, they have decided not to engage in any way with 90% of UK newspapers  – mostly red labels and yummy mummy titles. Here’s the thing: they said they wouldn’t talk to four newspaper groups, yet appear to have excluded The Times in that ban despite it belonging to the same stable as The Sun.

So we will now (hopefully) only see mention of the renegade duo in The Grauniad, The Telegraph and the aforementioned Times. Thank god for that as I don’t read any of them.

Still, that’ll keep their PR costs down, and they obviously need to save every penny as neither of them work for a living.

Captain Tom has now raised £26.5 million and is No.1 in the Official Big Top 40 Chart. And he doesn’t seem to have a problem talking to the UK media. But then he’s a nice old boy who served his country in the past and is doing his bit again, and loving every minute of his new-found fame. How different from the entitled scroungers who think the world revolves around them.

Here’s another link: https://www.masks4all.org.uk/

I think that fairly soon we will be required to wear masks, but there are obviously insufficient surgical masks available for health workers, so we’ll have to make our own. It’s not hard, and those that can make them might consider making extras for those that can’t.

‘My mask protects you and your mask protects me’

I have checked the weather forecast for the rest of this week and Friday looks like the best day. So I shall be out in the garden chopping up more rose-bush prunings from last year with a view to having another burnup when the wind dies down, which I think will also be Friday.

And that which isn’t burnable will be going on the compost heap or through the shredder. Ideally I’d put all the prunings through the shredder but that doesn’t get rid of the thorns, so burning is the only solution.

Now, somewhere in the shed I think I’ve got some old packets of seeds, So as soon as there’s some clear ground I shall be creating a ‘cottage garden’ out back aka flinging handfuls of seed around and seeing what comes up. And I really need another bag of potting compost – is that classed as essential?

What is essential is a trip to Tesco for ciggies, and possibly chocolate biscuits, as I have eaten almost all of the last pack. Still, gardening is good exercise, isn’t it?

I can’t believe we’ve sat indoors now for four whole weeks. I have this thing where I picture future time as distance (yes, I know it sounds weird but it works for me) but since we started lockdown I’ve had no picture of time at all.

That reminds me of a book, by Philip Jose Farmer, called ‘Dayworld’. It is set at a time when Earth’s population has grown so large it is impossible to feed everyone. So the whole population is divided into sevenths, and each seventh occupies the planet for one day. Where do the rest go, you ask. In stasis, I reply. At just before midnight everyone that’s around gets into a stasis pod and instantly is ‘switched off’, and just after midnight the next day’s occupants are released from stasis to fill the space left by the previous occupants. Stasis isn’t sleep though. Those who are released immediately get into their pyjamas, brush their teeth and go to bed. 

For every person the system is seamless – pop into the stasis pod, pop out of the stasis pod and no time appears to have passed. The seasons pass quickly though, as do the years, since each person only lives one seventh of a year. And you don’t age while in stasis.

But, and there’s always a but, the great and the good don’t have those restrictions – they stay around all week. This might have proved problematic as they will be aging seven times faster than the main population but they’ve got that figured – a drug that delays aging.

The essence of the story is a man who has figured out how to have seven different identities and therefore never goes into stasis but instead moves around from place to place depending on what day it is. Needless to say, he is chased by the politzi who want to constrain him.

In a sense this lockdown feels like stasis to me; we went into stasis on a Monday night and at some point we will come out of it and time will not have passed. We will carry one where we left off. But this period in stasis differs from the story as we seem to be living in a sort of dream (or nightmare, depending on your point of view). Pity we don’t actually have stasis pods because they would have solved this problem in the blink of an eye.

I must see if I’ve got that book and re-read it, and the sequels.

****

Whether you’re a Royalist or not, you gotta love Phil! Right after his treacherous grandson and super-entitled grand-daughter-in-law announce to the world that they’re not playing ball with the UK media, he puts out a brilliant statement to all the media thanking everyone for all they’re doing. 

Day 29 – Tuesday 21st April 2020

The start of our fifth week of constraints is bright and sunny. Seems we are heading for the hottest April for over 300 years, and by Friday it should be warmer than Morocco apparently. At least the wind should have dropped so we can have the next bonfire, as I don’t like clouds of smoke blowing around at ground level.

It is not surprising to me that people are getting confused and fed-up when I look at the news stories. The Daily Fail ran a story about a possible scenario for coming out of isolation based on the traffic light system, and suggested it could be done and dusted by July. Then they ran another saying the pubs could be closed till Christmas. So which is it? Actually it’s neither, as both stories are kite-flying as usual.

Here’s what I’d like to see:

The bubble being extended to family members.

Everyone wearing face masks when off their home ground (which would also mean the social distancing can be relaxed).

Shops allowed to reopen – as everyone would be wearing face masks that should be safe, as long as cleaning surfaces was part of the deal.

Businesses allowed to reopen for the same reason.

I think events and areas where people congregate (pubs, restaurants) should still be excluded – you can’t eat and drink wearing a mask – but takeaways are OK, as long as the food is taken back home.

Schools and universities are problematic because of the numbers involved, so they should stay closed until the Autumn term at least.

Parks, nature reserves and beaches could be used, but no picnics (because you have to wear a face mask).

Long distance travel should still be banned, as should relocating to a second home.

For those who say ‘I can’t wear a face mask because [insert spurious reason here]’, that’s OK, they can stay indoors.

The whole point of lockdown, or ‘sheltering in place’ as the Americans say, which I think is a much nicer term, is to stop the virus spreading. And the biggest problem every country has is they don’t know who’s had the bug, who’s carrying the bug right now, and who’s not been exposed yet, but they all know that keeping people separated works, as in almost every country the rate of infection is dropping. 

So my suggestions are a sort of half-way house, dropping the most stringent requirements, and replacing them with something similar that’ll do the job – face masks.

If there is an appreciable spike in the infection rate (and it would probably be very localised) then it would be fairly easy to have people revert to the previous strategy.

However, it’s not my call, so today I’m going to deal with the things I can change, and not worry about the things I can’t. I’m going to start to put the rest of Martin’s stock into the database and get that online. And I’ll carry on chopping up prunings for the bonfire. And get a dose of Vitamin D at the same time.

*****

It is very hard these days to tell parody from idiocy (defined as the state or condition of being an idiot; the quality of having an intelligence level far below average; mental retardation; lacking intelligence or sense).

I saw a video of a woman from Jacksonville, Florida explaining why her town’s beaches should never have been closed, using the following arguments:

1. Jacksonville is not Miami, which is full of Mexicans drinking Corona beer and that’s why they have the bug;
2. In Jacksonville they only drink Natural Light beer, because it’s natural and it’s light;
3. In Jacksonville it’s very hot all year round, like 95 degrees hot not 70 degrees which other places consider hot, and the virus can’t survive in that sort of heat;
4. They buy a lot of TP (toilet paper) in Jacksonville because it’s so hot and you put toilet paper in (bodily) places to soak up the sweat;
5. Salt. Salt makes everything better – bacon, grits – and the sea is salty so the beaches should be open because you can’t get the virus where there’s salt.

Now, any rational, reasonably educated person would think this is parody, but sadly, this woman was for real.

And given her appearance, she was old enough to vote. I’m thinking I can guess who she votes for. 

Someone is telling porky pies when it comes to the RAF’s mercy dash to Turkey for PPE supplies. We were told that those supplies would be in the UK on Sunday, yet it seems the RAF’s Atlas A400 aircraft only arrived at Istanbul Ataturk Airport this morning. The Turks are also claiming that the UK government didn’t even approach them till Sunday. 

It is also disconcerting to read that the membership of SAGE – the committee advising the government on strategy at the moment – and the sources of its information are to be kept secret until the pandemic is over. Why? Is this another ‘the public can’t be trusted’ scenario? Right now, every person in this country has to do the right thing and maintain the lockdown protocols if we are to come out of this without losing too many lives. It ill-behoves the government to start playing Secret Squirrel and hiding behind spurious claims of ‘security’ to avoid awkward questions. There is already a huge uproar on Twitter regarding an account which seems to be government-controlled and which has created up to 200 fake profiles, using stolen images of doctors and nurses, and these profiles tweet very pro-government comments. 

It’s time the powers-that-be realised that everything is transparent these days, and no matter how they try to obfuscate things, there are bigger and better hackers out there that will demolish any house of cards a government tries to build. 

Coronavirus could be ‘wiped out’ if 80 to 90 per cent of Britons wear DIY masks, an Oxford University expert, Professor Trish Greenhalgh, has claimed today. The homemade masks would only have to be 80 to 90 percent effective.

Speaking during a web briefing for the Royal Society of Medicine, Professor Greenhalgh said: ‘If 80 to 90 percent of us do it, and if the masks were say 80-90 per cent effective, that would probably – the modellers say – be enough to reduce the effective R0 down to wipe out this disease and we can all get on with our lives’.

The professor of primary healthcare at Oxford backed the Government’s view that making facemasks compulsory for everyone once lockdown eases would ‘put NHS supplies at risk’ for people on the frontline.  

So, if masks could be an easy solution to easing the lockdown, but their compulsory use would hit the NHS PPE stocks, then why not set up local seamstresses to make DIY ones for the people around them. They are already cobbling together coveralls from bin bags for their local hospitals.

I’ve made stuff in bulk in the past – I once sewed 1600 widths of curtains for Southend Hospital’s Cardigan wing when it was built 25 years ago. 

So, just off the top of my head:

The most basic take about 5 minutes to cut and sew, so a decent seamstress should be able to make 100 a day. There are three weeks to go in the current lockdown, so if we could find 100 sewers in Southend we could make them all a mask in the next three weeks. 

And actually the cut-and-tie ones are quite cool as well, so non-sewers could also contribute.

Ideally they’d all need at least two masks, and one t-shirt is enough for two masks. Hmmm…. I shall find a couple of t-shirts tomorrow and work out the best way to do this.

And to end the day, Captain Tom is heading towards £28m, with £27,854,143 raised to date. The old boy will be 100 in nine days and has already received over 25,000 birthday cards. Given his age, he’s not going to last many more years, so I think it’s a fantastic legacy, and he will be remembered.

Day 30 – Wednesday 22nd April 2020

Filed under: ‘Couldn’t Organise A Piss-up In A Brewery’

“Delayed RAF plane lands in UK with HALF the PPE promised because it was too SMALL to carry full 84-tons”

How the hell did that happen? I don’t believe it was the RAF’s fault – they would have had to have been told what they were going to collect.

So did some numpty in Procurement put a decimal point in the wrong place?

The government is not covering itself with glory over the PPE issue at all. There are loads of companies who claim to have offered supplies, or manufacturing services, multiple times and received no response at all.

Communities minister Simon Clarke said there is a ‘standing presumption’ that the Government will do its utmost to buy PPE ‘wherever it can be sourced’ and urged manufacturers to ‘reach out’ to the Cabinet Office to log their ability to make equipment.

But suppliers say that neither the Cabinet Office nor NHS Procurement respond, even when local MPs try to make contact.

So who is making this ‘standing presumption’ because it’s obviously wrong?

There are conclusions to be drawn: either the government doesn’t really want to supply the PPE, or someone’s on the fiddle somewhere and accepting extra-mural offers would put a spanner in the works. There can be no other scenarios, given that offers are not being rejected so much as ignored.

In the meantime, the RAF have sent another plane over to Turkey to pick up the rest of the stuff.

Right next to a story about how the couple of million people registered as vulnerable on the Government’s database can’t get delivery slots from supermarkets is another article suggesting that 7.3 million people in the 60-69 age group should also be in total isolation.

I’m wondering if the aim of the game is to starve all the wrinklies to death rather than have them ill with Covid-19. It’d take the pressure off the NHS.

And if they try to do that I shall have to lie about my age again.

Here’s a man that needs to be investigated by the Competition and Markets Authority: Balvinder Nijjar, the managing director of Freshways, a dairy supply company.

This company buys milk from around 300 farmers and processes it to sell to supermarkets, care homes, and fast-food chains.

As all the coffee shops and fast-food joints have been closed for the duration, he’s lost trade. But he’s got a great scheme to make sure he doesn’t lose money: force farmers to accept less per pint for their milk while increasing charges to his customers. Win-win for Balvinder.

Based in Acton, West London, Freshways is run by Mr Nijjar and several family members and controlled by an opaque web of 11 companies. In the last year for which records are available, it paid around £1.4million in dividends. Around 48 per cent of that sum was paid to Balvinder Nijjar, who is nicknamed ‘Fat Bob’ by farmers on account of his alleged greed. 

According to the CMA website the abuse of a dominant market position is considered anti-competitive activity, punishable by a fine of up to 10% of worldwide turnover, and the company directors can be disqualified for up to 15 years.

So I hope someone reports him.

*****

Captain Tom has hit £28m! £28,022,063, to be exact. At this rate he’ll make £30m by his birthday.

Today’s news headlines, (mostly) without comment:

The Care Minister, Helen Whately, doesn’t know how many health workers and care workers have died.

Another ‘expert’ now thinks everyone over 50, and everyone overweight, should self-isolate (which by my reckoning is about 80% of the population and would also reduce frontline health workers by about 50%).

Data from the Office of National Statistics seems to show that the death toll from Covid-19 is in fact in excess of 41,000, while the ‘official’ figure quoted by the government is only 17,337.

Tony Bliar has come out of the woodwork again, and says Boris’ lot are doing it wrong.

The 4,000-bed Nightingale Hospital at ExCel hasn’t got enough critical care nurses so it’s only treated 40 people so far.

The decision to allow the Cheltenham Festival to go ahead was a big mistake (no shit, Sherlock!) as it’s revealed that virus deaths in nearby hospitals are double those in neighbouring areas.

Britain’s only tea grower says orders have soared to 12 times normal as locked-down Britons turn to a cuppa to help them keep calm and carry on through Covid-19 crisis. 

Drinking too much tea at home during lockdown is bad for you, according to an ‘expert’, and you should only have 4-5 cups a day. (Of course, when you’re out of lockdown you can drink as much tea as you like as long as you do it somewhere else.)

Medical Detection Dogs say its pack of pooches could be trained to identify the deadly virus within eight weeks, but it needs £500,000 in funding. (Good luck with that business plan!)

A Dyson (yep, the vacuum cleaner company) ‘expert’ reveals the EXACT (not my capitals) tasks you need to complete each day to ensure your home is a sterile environment. (I don’t do most of the list once a year, let alone once a week.)

Coronavirus patients treated with malaria drug hydroxychloroquine touted by Trump are MORE likely to die, new trial finds.

The American South gather en masse to demand the states re-open for business, citing the First Amendment, conspiracy theories, and a need for burgers as their reason. (Which proves that there should be mandatory tests before people can vote in the USA.)

Richard ‘the Government should not intervene to stop companies going bust’ Branson’s Virgin Australia has gone bust so now he wants the UK government to bail-out Virgin Atlantic.

David Hepburn, an intensive care consultant at the Royal Gwent Hospital in Newport, has described the decision to let two Stereophonics gigs, when 15,000 people packed into the Motorpoint Arena in Cardiff on March 14 and 15, go ahead at the start of the coronavirus outbreak as ‘downright insane’.

Couch potatoes who can’t tear themselves away from the TV might have inherited their habit as researchers discover watching shows could be in their genes. (Now, I might be wrong but humans have been around for a very long time and TV not so much, so how can being a Netflix addict possibly be ‘in their genes’?)

Liverpool’s metro mayor accuses the Government of ignoring the WHO to allow Liverpool v Atletico Madrid to go ahead on 11th March, allegedly because at that time they were espousing a ‘herd immunity’ strategy.

UK’s biggest airlines and travel operators are ‘flouting the law’ by delaying refunds for cancelled holidays, says Which? (Hands up if you’re surprised.)

And finally, a story close to home: Southend Council is asking residents to be considerate to their neighbours whilst the country continues to follow Government instructions to stay at home.

“With people now only leaving their house to shop, exercise, for medical need or to travel to work where they cannot work from home, it is more important than ever to consider our neighbours, particularly in the mornings and evenings. The Council’s regulatory services team is asking residents to consider the following advice:

❖ Think about the volume of your music and how loud your TV is, especially when gaming;

❖ Please control the barking of dogs where possible;

❖ Do not have bonfires;

❖ Ensure that your refuse is stored securely and put out for collection on the correct day;

❖ If you are planning on undertaking DIY at home, please only do so between 09.00 and 18.00. If you are planning major building or alteration work to your home please see whether it can be postponed. If not, please speak with your neighbours and come to some arrangement whilst using the social distancing rules;

❖ Mow the lawn or use power tools in the garden between 09.00 and 18.00;

❖ Only use external lights where absolutely necessary;

❖ Use vacuum cleaners, washing machines or other domestic appliances between 08.00 and 21.00;

❖If you play a musical instrument, try and arrange suitable times with your neighbour if you think it will affect them – but remember the social distancing rules.”

So, when we all get back to normal it’ll be OK to let your dog bark day and night, mow the lawn or vacuum clean at 7am, practise the trumpet after midnight, and play hard rock at full volume till the small hours? Why does it matter whether one neighbour or a whole streetful are at home?

We shall have our (third) bonfire on Friday – sod the Council.

*****

I was just looking back over this blog and I’m amazed that it took 23 days for me to get cheesed-off with the monotony. Still, I seem to have got over that hump now.

Day 31 – Thursday 23rd April 2020

St George’s Day

Who’d’ve thunk it? Smoking might be good for you! Well, to be accurate, a couple of small, very small, studies suggest smokers might be hit less hard by the pandemic, either as a result of not contracting the virus, or of experiencing only very mild symptoms if they do. Trials are looking at giving sufferers nicotine patches – so they think nicotine is the key. But maybe it’s just that the virus can’t live in a smoky atmosphere! No, I don’t believe that either, because China has some of the worst pollution on the planet and that didn’t stop them getting it.

****

Yesterday I watched a video of Americans protesting the lockdown and one man’s comment has come to mind as I was thinking about how different things are in the UK. He said, “I look after me. You look after you. It’s not my job to look after you.”

I think that probably sums up the basic difference between us: we as a country are willing to follow the requirements because we know it’s not only good for us personally, but it’s also good for our neighbours. The Americans seem to have an ‘I’m alright, Jack, sod you’ attitude, which pervades everything about the country.

I was saddened to read that people have been protesting against the nurses dancing and performing a haka, claiming it’s disrespectful to those who are ill or have died. I think it’s a great idea. I cannot imagine the stress these nurses are under day after day, with a real risk of PTSD. So anything that can lighten their load should be welcomed. I’d like to see the complainers do a shift or two and see how they cope.

****

When lockdown was imposed, all non-essential shops were required to close. Only food shops, takeaways, pharmacies, off-licences, petrol stations, garages, and hardware stores were permitted to stay open.
Some shops decided to bend these rules e.g. The Range, a ‘lifestyle’ store not known for supplying essential goods, suddenly put a load of chillers in their shops and started selling takeaway food. Under the rules, that meant they could stay open, and were also allowed to sell anything else they had in store.
The police tried in some areas to suggest that buying rugs or cushions or table lamps wasn’t essential, but the government made it clear that if a shopper was in a store buying essential goods, they were free to also buy non-essential goods if the shop sold them. This was probably done so that the big superstores like Tesco, Asda, Sainsburys and Waitrose, plus the smaller Aldi and Lidl shops wouldn’t have to strip all the non-food stuff from the shelves.
That has worked quite well, with social distancing and limited numbers in shops at any one time.

Big mixed hardware / lifestyle stores like B & Q decided to close their shops and operate a collection-only service. This didn’t work so well, with huge queues of people snaking around car parks, and in some cases so many people that the police were sending people away and telling them to come back the next day.
If nothing else, this demonstrates that unless people have a purpose, lockdown will inevitably fail if only due to boredom. The appalling fly-tipping going on because councils closed all the amenity tips just proves that people have to do something other than Netflix and chill.

So today, B & Q have re-opened some of their stores, and once again there are long queues, though I suspect they will die down after a week or so as they have been doing at the supermarkets.
Broadly speaking, I have no problem with that, as a happy, productive population is also likely to be a compliant population. But I would have been a lot happier if stores now imposed a facemask requirement.

In some areas of California there is now a mandatory facemask requirement – no facemask, no service. That strikes me as an excellent idea. It’s a step away from requiring everyone to wear a mask outside of their home, but does mean that when you go into a closed environment like a shop you will not be spreading any potential germs over other shoppers.

The biggest danger to us all at the moment is not those who are symptomatic, because they are probably at home in bed; it’s those who are asymptomatic and still walking amongst us. ‘My mask protects you; your mask protects me’ is a good mantra, and I’d like to see the government approve shops to re-open on condition that both the shoppers and staff wear facemasks.

Day 32 – Friday 24th April 2020

I fear for the American people. Their President, whose only qualifications appear to be in finance and real estate, is now boastfully demonstrating his ignorance to the whole world by suggesting that as disinfectant kills the coronavirus on surfaces maybe people could be injected with something similar to wipe it out in a minute. Failing that, or maybe as well as, how about dousing people in some sort of very strong light – UV or otherwise.
A proportion of the population seem to hang on his every word so I shall not be at all surprised to read of deaths amongst his avid followers in the next week.

Day 32 of lockdown. Here’s what we know about Covid-19:

It’s a virus
It’s contagious
It attacks the respiratory system
It can kill you

On Day 1 of lockdown here’s what we knew about Covid-19:

It’s a virus
It’s contagious
It attacks the respiratory system
It can kill you

Despite a month of trial and error testing of everything in the current global medicine chest, we are no further forward in curing / treating / immunising people against this infection.

Right now I don’t care where it came from, who might have made it, who didn’t do their job properly (I’m looking at you, World Health Organisation), or even whether we should have had lockdown sooner, later, or at all.
I believe every country is massaging the figures, whether deliberately or because their testing / tracking / tracing protocols are simply too little, too late.

Epidemiological modelling is a useful tool, but it can only be a guide based on previous experience. Looking back at the Spanish flu, for example, we are doing exactly what was done a hundred years ago, before we had the scientific and technical capabilities we have today.

So, if we can’t cure Covid-19 or prevent it, we’re just going to have to starve it to death. And the two most effective methods are social distancing and facemasks.

What about herd immunity?, I hear you cry. Well, that would work in the long term if we were dealing with an immutable virus (not sure such a thing actually exists, with the possible exception of the two smallpox viruses which were eradicated by 1980) but there are reports of mutations of Covid-19 ranging from 5 to 500 variants. Bit like regular winter flu really. And we haven’t eradicated that.
And herd immunity doesn’t protect us from the flu, because if it did we wouldn’t be injecting 14 million+ people in the UK each year against it. And because the flu virus mutates you’re not actually getting a vaccine against this year’s flu – instead you get a cocktail of up to four variants from previous years in the hope that you will build up sufficient antibodies to fight off the new variant. And – I’ll bet you didn’t know this – it takes up to two weeks for the vaccine to become effective.

So even if a vaccine against Covid-19 is developed – as I’m sure it will be – and allowing for time to actually manufacture sufficient doses to treat everyone (because the whole world will need vaccinating) and then more time to deliver and administer the vaccine, plus a possible two weeks extra for efficacy, we could be (will probably be) looking at a minimum of 12 months where we will need to maintain social distancing.

Which sort of brings me back to my previously stated position regarding facemasks – which are a form of social distancing.

I know the UK Government is resisting providing a timetable for exit from lockdown, which is not surprising considering how woefully ill-prepared some of their spokespersons are. Some are floundering and some are drowning when challenged in front of the TV cameras.
But nevertheless, we do need to get the economy back on track, as we as a country cannot continually support a largely non-working population without being crippled with debt in the future. So the sooner we are back to work the better, because I can foresee massive increases in taxation – income tax, VAT, and Corporation tax – which will see even more businesses and individuals fall into bankruptcy, placing a further burden on the public purse.

I think it’s time for the government to spell out in words of one syllable (for The Sun readers amongst us) that in order to get back to any semblance of normality there will be some mandatory requirements, punishable by hefty fines / jail time, with no excuses or exceptions.

I am minded to reflect on the rationing imposed during WW2 – it started in 1939 with petrol and didn’t end till 1954. I’m no history buff, so I did a bit of research on Wikipedia and on 23rd February 1950 there was a General Election, fought largely on the issue of rationing. The Conservative Party campaigned on a manifesto of ending rationing as quickly as possible. The Labour Party argued for the continuation of rationing indefinitely. Labour was returned, but with its majority badly slashed to 5 seats. Three months later, petrol rationing was ended, but that wasn’t sufficient to save the Labour Party and they lost power in October 1951. So in the space of 18 months or so the population had lost its appetite for rationing, but it took another three years for the Conservatives to finally lift all rationing – a total of 15 years in all.
And during all the time rationing was imposed there were draconian penalties for breaking the regulations, up to and including the death penalty, though I don’t believe anyone was executed.

Now I wouldn’t advocate bringing back the death penalty for not wearing a facemask or breaking social distancing rules, but a range of penalties tailored to the offender (in other words, the really wealthy get sent to jail as money is irrelevant to them, those less wealthy get offered a hefty fine first, with jail for not paying).

As well as the financial cost of lockdown, and the mortality rate, there is another unseen cost that we will be paying because of the virus: mental health. I’m fairly self-sufficient. I’m not gregarious, I like my own company, and I lived alone for 12 years after my husband died. So not having much human contact doesn’t bother me (as long as I’ve got the internet!). But I had a friend, sadly now dead, who hated living alone, and actually preferred living with his odious teenage son who used to regularly attack him and was once arrested for doing so. So I do understand how difficult it is for people to cope with not seeing family and friends, and not having physical human contact.
We are heading for a massive increase in mental health issues if the elderly are kept isolated much longer. According to the ONS, there are approximately 3 million over-60s living in single person households, and I’ll bet many of them are so scared by the media reports that they hardly set foot out of the door at the moment. According to AgeUK there were at least 1.6 million chronically lonely older people in the UK before we started lockdown. Then we have the people who already have mental health issues, treated or not, who are part of the 4 million or so under-60s that live alone.

Now I know something about the mental health provisions in the UK, as my late husband had issues that required us to try and access treatment for him. I say ‘try and access’ because, apart from a pill-pushing psychiatrist, he struggled to get any sort of support. So I don’t hold out much hope for any poor souls who need some talking therapy, because the waiting list is ridiculous, even assuming there are psychotherapists available in your area.

Ah, I have now found where Donald got his info regarding light treatment for Covid-19:
“Coronavirus dies in SUNLIGHT in just minutes, reveals ‘striking’ study by US Department of Homeland Security”. Apparently the coronavirus can be killed by sunlight in a matter of minutes, as ultraviolet radiation in sunlight damages the virus’ genetic material and hampers its ability to replicate.
[Well, that’ll save us all boiling our laundry to death – just hang the washing outside to dry!]
Scientists commenting on the study said UV will not be used as a therapy for infected patients because the light cannot penetrate the body and kill the virus. (Really? I’d never have guessed!) Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said: ‘COVID-19 is predominantly droplet spread so the time for the droplets to get from one person to another is probably seconds rather than minutes.
Seasonality of such droplet spread infections is probably more to do with people being less cramped together when able to go outside than anything to do with the sterilising effect of UV from sunlight, though it will help a little. But this does not mean that UV can in any way be used to treat someone who is infected. The sunlight does not make its way by some magic into the lungs where this virus replicates.’ I think Donald missed that last sentence.

Meanwhile, here in The Avenue, we are basking in the sunshine. Tonight’s bonfire night. And tomorrow is Doris’ 97th birthday, so we are going to see if we can do something to make it a bit special.

****

Here’s a wild thought occasioned by a post from the LA Times (stating Joe Biden has rejected a political donation because of the reputation of the donor): why can’t all political donations be made anonymous? ‘Cash for consideration’ is rife both in the UK and the USA, and I believe that is detrimental to good governance.
Now, I realise that donations, especially large ones, need scrutinising, if only to comply with money-laundering regulations, but it shouldn’t be beyond the wit and wisdom of either country to have a gatekeeper system to check out the source of a donation and then forward it to the lucky political party. I’d suggest using HMRC here in the UK and the IRS in the USA. After all, the donors are fully-compliant taxpayers, aren’t they? It’d be interesting to see if donations dried up when they couldn’t be used for leverage.

There’s an interesting article in today’s LA times comparing the cost of reopening the US c.f. maintaining the lockdown:
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-04-23/whats-worse-reopening-the-economy-or-keep-it-shut-down-longer

Put simply, those who care about people think caution should be the watchword; those who favour cash think that should be the over-riding consideration.
Guess what side Texas’ Governor is on:
“We are crushing the economy,” said Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. “There are more important things than living.”
What? Dying for instance? But then again, people voted for this man, so I guess they’ll be happy to die for him, as long as the economy prospers.

‘In another recent paper, economists at the Federal Reserve and MIT examined economic and mortality data for 30 states and several dozen cities that had varying practices of intervening during the 1918 flu.

Their conclusion: Cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively benefited in both limiting deaths and showing faster long-term economic growth after the pandemic passed.

“Our findings thus indicate that [nonpharmaceutical interventions] not only lower mortality; they may also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic,” the authors wrote.’

So, social distancing and facemasks work (and are relatively cheap interventions).

And just to prove that businesses who adapt can make things work, albeit differently, this is a video about a restaurant that was less than a year old when they had to close because of the virus, but quickly re-invented themselves as a takeout / delivery service instead:

*****

Bonfire all done! Poster round all done! Doris’ jellies and lunch for tomorrow all done!

Lighter news stories:

We are all peeling carrots incorrectly.

Your home is even dirtier than you think, but retailer AO.com can tell you how to clean it.

£3.98 veneers which promise to give you a perfect smile within minutes are not one-size-fits-all, unless you happen to be a horse.

A man in Wales painted his kitchen white.

Japanese mayor says only men should be allowed to go grocery shopping during coronavirus crisis because women take too long.

Day 33 – Saturday 25th April 2020

Doris’ Birthday

The veneer of compliance and co-operation is wearing very thin in the UK.
While we were out on the poster round we noticed a lot more cars on the road, and a lot more people at the seafront, many of them seated on benches or the ground despite the requirement to keep moving.
I see from news stories today that this pattern was repeated around the country.

I fear the population is losing its confidence in the government’s handling of this crisis, and I’m not really surprised. Without Boris, the government appears leaderless, a position reinforced by the rag-bag of faces wheeled out each day to give a press briefing and for the most part very unconvincingly. When questioned about anything they almost all repeat the same mantra: ‘we will be guided by the science’ yet when asked to identify the science they are using to guide them they are all coy and cite security as a reason for non-disclosure.
The SAGE group of experts is shrouded in mystery – we are not allowed to know who these experts are, nor what sources they use, nor what they discuss – but I find it very disquieting that Dominic Cummings is apparently party to their discussions. As a non-elected Special Advisor to the Prime Minister he seems to wield far too much influence.

The claim by Health Minister Matt Hancock a few days ago the ‘the public can’t be trusted’ now seems to be the new mantra when questions about lifting the lockdown are raised. If I can research and come to some reasonable conclusions about how this crisis will pan out, I’m sure our leaders have worked out a similar scenario. So why adopt this ‘we can’t tell you’ attitude?
Surely it would be better to openly state two or three scenarios, based on the latest modelling, for say coming out of lockdown now, staying in lockdown for another six months, and some compromise solution in between, and in each case show the social and economic implications. The government could then state their preferred solution, and defend their case. As I understand it, during the last war that’s exactly what the government did; they carefully explained why things had to be a certain way and people accepted it.
But all this Secret Squirrel stuff just leads to what we saw yesterday – more people out, huge queues at the re-opened B & Q stores and the burger takeaways, and people picnicking in park and on beaches.

Trump’s alleged suggestion that disinfectant and/or light might be a cure for coronavirus seems to have sparked off a huge debate. I saw the video – he definitely said he felt they were options worth exploring, and his tone was serious – well, as serious as he gets.
I have been sent a link to a Breitbart page:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/24/donald-trump-injecting-disinfectants-question-was-sarcasm/

This story claims Trump says his suggestions were sarcasm. This website is extremely right-wing, and in 2016, Breitbart News became a virtual rallying spot for supporters of Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, so it’s obviously not independent. What’s interesting is not the ‘sarcasm’ claim, but the comments on the piece, which gives an insight into the American psyche.

It seems the public scorn has finally got to Trump, because instead of his usual long-winded ramblings at the press briefing yesterday he walked out after 20 minutes. I’ll bet the reporters breathed a collective sigh of relief.

Yesterday I was also sent a story from The Telegraph in which Prof Isaac Ben-Israel claims that a coronavirus epidemic peaks at 40 days and dies out in 70 days, with or without intervention. He doesn’t say what the difference in consequences would be with and without intervention. I think he’s possibly got his information from a similar source to that which I found, namely that typically coronaviruses are self limiting (because of herd immunity) and tend to only last for about 90 days. Winter flu is a coronavirus. It lasts about 3 months.

Not everyone agrees with Professor Ben-Israel:

“Professor Babak Javid, a consultant in infectious diseases at Cambridge University Hospitals, said: “To suggest that mitigation measures are irrelevant to the trajectory of the spread of the virus doesn’t take into account the fundamental concept of the dynamics of transmission of an infectious disease within infectious, susceptible and immune individuals in a population.
They are correct in surmising that, if exponential growth is unchecked, it will in due course decline. But that is only the case if a majority of the population are infected. It is not true if mitigation efforts have reduced the base number of people infected.
A striking example is Singapore: now three months (around 90 days) since its first case. After an initial highly successful containment strategy, due to [their] inability to prevent transmission in highly crowded worker dormitories, they are seeing a new, massive spike in cases in a population that was previously unexposed.”

Yesterday was a sunshine-and-shorts day; today the weather is much cooler, so people may stay indoors.
I see our leaders are floating the idea of ‘social bubbles’, obviously nicked from the New Zealand story some days ago. I’m all for that. It’d make Doris’ life much more pleasant as she could come over to us. But once again they are making it complicated: make a list (reminds me of Santa Claus: ‘He’s making a list, he’s checking it twice’), presumably register it somewhere so the powers of law and order can check it (so that’ll take a couple of months to set up, going by previous experience of how fast the Civil Service works) and then you can interact with your chosen names. People will pretty soon find out who their friends are! Supposing you make a list of friends you want to see, but you’re not on their list. How will that work? Will lists be cross-checked? Who’s going to do that? If the lists don’t match will you get rejected? Far too complicated. Just let people meet a few family and friends. No big crowds. No big parties. Keep the actual numbers in a group below say 10 at all times. No need for names or lists, just common sense.

However, we don’t have that in place today, so Martin will go over to see Doris with lunch and a double chocolate birthday cake and I’ll go to the shop and carry on cataloguing.

I’m sorry, but we cannot have a system that allows some people to be more equal than others. By that I mean the current regulations require people to stay at home except for very specific reasons, and none of those reasons is a mass funeral.

So why are the majority of mourners denied even attendance at a loved one’s funeral yet a pack of hundreds were allowed to attend a funeral in Manchester on Thursday, with the tacit approval of the police on the grounds of ‘closing it down would endanger public safety and it was ‘clear that the emotions of those at the gathering were high”. Sorry, but that’s just crap.

The police knew of several gatherings in the area, and spoke to the family before the funeral, so they knew there would be hundreds congregating. And yet they did nothing save allowing it to continue. Worse still, under the watchful(?) eye of the police a man walked into the crowd and started shooting. He was attacked by another with a knife.
It’s a police attitude like this that will fuel even more disregard for the restrictions – get-a-big-enough-group-together-and-the-police-will-leave-you-alone-scenario.

****

Doris had as good a day as possible with phone calls and Skype chats with family members, and a large helping of chocolate gateau. Martin took some nice pictures which have been well received on Facebook and I’m sure he’ll go through the comments with her tomorrow.

The weather improved as the day progressed, and once again there were significantly more cars and people to be seen. I’m told there was a queue to get into the car park at B & Q.

Captain Tom, who is rapidly progressing towards £29 million raised for NHS charities has reportedly been added to the honours shortlist for a CBE. Very deserving.

Day 34 – Sunday 26th April 2020

They say every cloud has a silver lining. The silver lining of this lockdown is actually sky-blue, or more accurately blue sky.
The huge reduction in the traffic-generated pollution haze means that in the UK, on a sunny day like today, the sky is now the sort of blue we usually associate with a Mediterranean holiday.

“Scientists hail game-changing immunity test: Government orders 50 MILLION antibody testing kits that work in 20 minutes and could be ready by June”

Well if that isn’t a headline to cheer everybody up, I don’t know what is. But as usual with the Daily Fail, the devil is in the detail:

“Ministers have ordered production of up to 50 million new immunity tests as part of what experts hope will be a ‘game-changing’ development in the battle against Covid-19. A breakthrough by a team of top British scientists means that, by June, people could be able to reliably test whether they have developed immunity to the virus – and then be allowed to return to work and socialise as normal.
The new immunity tests, expected to cost £10, have been devised by scientists at Oxford, working for the Government-backed Rapid Testing Consortium. Users of the test provide a pinprick of blood for analysis. Then, like a pregnancy test, if two lines appear after a 20-minute wait, people know that they have the antibodies. One line means they are either vulnerable to coronavirus infection or the test has failed. Under plans being drawn up, the user would take a picture of the positive result and send it to a central unit which would enter their details into a database. The consortium believes it could produce up to 1 million of the ‘lateral flow’ tests a week by the summer, adding up to 50 million by next year.”

1. Who’s going to pay the £10 per test cost? Is that a wholesale or retail price?
2. If you ‘fail’ the test, how will that impact your ability to work and socialise?
3. All the wrinklies that have assiduously self-quarantined would definitely fail – are they to stay locked up until a vaccine is available?
4. Who decides when you can have the test? At a production rate of 1 million per week it’ll take 67 weeks to produce enough tests for one per person of the population. Add say 10% for ‘system failures’ means we’re up to 74 weeks. That’s 18 months gone, just to sort out who’s had it and who hasn’t.

This might be sort of good news but it really only sorts the cows from the goats. The government has guesstimated that maybe 20% of the population has already had the virus, most of whom had mild to zero symptoms, but defining people by their immunity is really going to cause problems and won’t be helpful.
For instance, if 20% of your workforce tests positive for immunity, are you going to re-open your business? Can you run it with just 20% of your staff? If you can, what are you going to do about the other 80% – sack them? wait till there’s a vaccine for them? let them come to work with facemasks and gloves? can they be customer-facing?

This week’s prize for stating the bleeding obvious goes to Tory 1922 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady, who warned Mr Johnson that prolonging the lockdown ‘for longer than necessary would have its own toll of mass unemployment, business failure and catastrophic deterioration of the public finances’. No shit, Sherlock! Does he/they think Boris is in this for the lols? That he’s got a secret agenda to see just how long he can keep the country locked up? (Well, I guess that was a stupid question because I’m sure there are people wlaking the streets who think exactly that.)

Former Environment Secretary Theresa Villiers called on the Government to open garden centres immediately – a view backed by a new opinion poll. OK, so are we now doing vox-pop polls to determine lockdown policy? I’m sure if you asked the right questions of the right people you’d get a 100% vote for re-opening everything.

And filed under ‘Stable, Horse, Bolted’: Everyone entering the UK will be forced to quarantine for a fortnight under plans being drawn up by the Government. Officials were told to look at ways to enforce compliance, including large fines or even criminal prosecution, under powers introduced by the Coronavirus Act.

Another interesting story from the ‘How’s That Gonna Work Then?’ files: Clothes shops, when they re-open, will have to keep changing rooms closed so customers can’t try before they buy. At first glance, that seems reasonable. Many people don’t like community changing rooms anyway. And many people buy clothes online, which means they obviously can’t try them on first. But here’s the kicker: what happens when they want to return the purchases? Now you’ll have stock that’s been tried on by someone who may or may not have the virus. Are you going to ban returns? That’ll really help sales. In fact, some clothes shops have been selling online throughout the lockdown – how are they handling returns?

And one for the conspiracy theorists: the use of cash in shops will be discouraged. So now the NWO or the Illuminati or some other nebulous entity will know exactly where you’ve been and what you’ve bought because all purchases will be trackable. And I’d like to see any business refuse a cash payment if it meant the loss of a sale.

For once I feel a little bit sorry for Jeremy Corbin. It doesn’t help your credibility when your brother is seen with a megaphone at a rally in Glastonbury claiming ‘There is no pandemic.’

Here’s something to cheer everyone up:
Professor Robert Dingwall, a sociologist, who is a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, says that there is no reason why pubs with beer gardens shouldn’t open up and use them. He claims that the two-metre social distancing rule was ‘conjured up out of nowhere’. ‘There’s never been a scientific basis for two metres, it’s kind of a rule of thumb. But it’s not like there is …rigorous scientific literature that it is founded upon.’
I know he’s just one voice, but that’ll put a spanner in the works.

Day 35 – Monday 27th April 2020

The end of the fifth week of lockdown.

Today’s good news:

Captain Tom has now hit £29 million and counting. He’s going to get a personal telegram from the Queen, and all letters franked by the Post Office this week will be stamped ‘Happy Birthday’.

New Zealand says it has now got Covid-19 under control, and will start lifting some restrictions from tonight. They have only had 1,122 cases and just 19 deaths, so they were obviously doing something right.

I had done the weekly Aldi shop by 10:30am today – no queue outside, and fairly empty inside, plus no queue for the checkout. I know where everyone is: they’re all queueing down at B & Q!

In other news:

It’s 17 degrees here, but feels like 21 apparently, and we are due to get rain today. Not just today, but for the next few days. So I have reluctantly foregone the delights of cataloguing the records at the shop for having a tidy up in the garden and moving the dry burnable stuff to shelter. We really do need rain – the grass is straw-coloured like the middle of August.

Meanwhile, I’m pleased to hear Boris is back. I’m not a political animal, but I think the procession of faces wheeled out for the daily briefings has been a poor show, save for the Chancellor, who out of all of them actually seems to have a grip of everything. So I may watch the briefing, just to see what Boris has to say. I do thank God that Comrade Corbyn wasn’t at the helm when all this broke loose.

In a worrying development, children are presenting at intensive care in hospital with ‘inflammatory syndrome’, which may or may not be Covid-19 related, as some of the children do not appear to have the infection, nor do they show evidence of antibodies. These symptoms do not appear typical of those suffered by adults, though I have read that there seems to be a range of symptoms and not everyone gets them all.

Yesterday’s sunshine brought out another swathe of deniers, either to queue up at B & Q or to drive miles to ‘exercise’ ( read climb Snowdon) or in one case to take a short break in Cornwall – they like in Kent – sleeping in their car. This last couple had driven with no licence or insurance, so not only did the police send them packing, but their car was impounded as well.

Trump. Martin sent me a video made by a chap who is obviously no fan of the BBC. Well I’m not either, so I watched it. His complaint was that they had constructed a news story (the bleach and sunlight one) by cutting and splicing a 55 minute recording of that day’s Presidential briefing down to a few minutes, and in doing so they misrepresented the President, making it look like he had come up with the crazy suggestions regarding administering bleach and/or UV light as a treatment for Covid-19 out of nowhere.
The full version first shows a scientist explaining that sunlight and bleach do work to eradicate the virus on surfaces – something that most people know anyway. After all, we flood the sea with raw sewage, yet we don’t get sick if we swim because a combination of ozone and UV light kills the bacteria. And there are many people scrubbing their kitchens and their shopping with bleach to sanitise everything (not me – too lazy).
I don’t know of anybody who would therefore follow that line of thought and suggest bleach administered orally or intravenously would be a good way to eradicate the Covid-19 virus from the human body. So to hear the POTUS make such a suggestion, based on some simple science, and extrapolate it in such a way is astonishing. It reminds me of the old adage: Bad enough if people think you are a fool, but worse if you open your mouth and prove it. So to call Trump out was exactly the right thing to do. And it wasn’t just me that picked up on it – the manufacturers of disinfectants and bleach in the USA were posting all over Facebook within an hour: Please don’t drink our products!

Oh good, my rain app now says no rain till 5pm. So I can potter about outside a bit more.

Carole Middleton is obviously trying to improve her company’s image by posting a picture on Instagram of herself delivering goody bags to NHS workers at her local hospital’s children’s ward on Saturday. This is in contrast to the story six days ago where customers were complaining about lack of delivery and/or wrong delivery, and of being unable to get a response from the company. Last year the company was littered with bad ratings, with just a 2.1 score on the Trustpilot website. So no change there then.

****

Just when I thought I’d seen it all:

“The #FilmYourHospital hashtag was recently a trending topic on Twitter, targeting hospitals and medical personnel. The purpose of the hashtag was to showcase that hospitals are actually empty and the severity of the pandemic has been exaggerated by the media. Twitter personalities egged their followers to film the waiting rooms and parking lots of hospitals to prove they are empty.”
Seems this was spread by a few conservative politicians and far-right political activists with tens of thousands of followers, including some pro-Trump accounts.

The daily mortality rate in the UK is now the lowest it’s been for 30 days. Which is good news, and proves that the lockdown is working, despite the scofflaw idiots.

The Health and Social Care Secretary has revealed that the families of the 82 NHS workers and 16 social care staff who have died so far will receive a payout of £60,000, echoes of the lump sums paid to the families of military personnel who are killed while fighting for the nation.
Britain will hold minute’s silence at 11am tomorrow to pay tribute to NHS staff and key workers who have died battling coronavirus pandemic.

I really must get another rain app. The increasingly-misnamed Accuweather app I use now says no rain till after midnight!

Day 36 – Tuesday 28th April 2020

The first day of week six of lockdown.
The rain arrived overnight. While this is good news for our garden, it’s also good news for the lockdown. I can’t see too many people willingly queueing at B & Q, The Range, or even a burger joint, in the steady rain promised for the next three days in this corner of the country.
Hopefully the forecast is for rain all over the country so we will not see the likes of the two dozen or so drunken young revellers, crammed together for an outdoor party in Coatbridge, Lanarkshire. I don’t care if they catch the virus; I care that they are setting an example that others will undoubtedly follow, and we will be on the slippery slope to an even stricter lockdown throughout the summer.

Some brain-dead, pencil-pushing jobsworth in the Department of Transport has deemed the Spitfire flight over Captain Tom’s home on his birthday ‘not essential’. so it’s been cancelled.
If he does nothing else today (and I’m sure he’s got plenty more important things to deal with) Boris should have a word with someone and get the flight reinstated and the pencil-pusher re-assigned. I’m not fond of civil servants at the best of times – far too much arse-covering adherence to the letter rather than the spirit of the law – and in these worst of times we really should be celebrating achievements for public morale, not behaving like killjoys.

Boris is back, and gave a speech yesterday. I missed it, but it’s already been dissected for an op-ed piece in the Daily Fail, suggesting, albeit very subtly, that maybe he’s not up to the job anymore.
Well, if you’d been if not exactly at Death’s door but certainly in God’s waiting room for a few days wouldn’t that affect your perspective on things? Things like life and death, and making sure your decisions were more driven by a consideration for the good of all rather than to score political points or appease a chosen few.

Boris was given a personal ‘stasis’ when he became ill. He was able to sit outside all the posturing and attitudes and observe how well his team were handling the situation, and how well the public were responding. Hopefully he read some of the comments posted on stories to see whether the government had got the right balance between a lockdown to break the hold of the virus, and common sense, because in some cases I think they got it wrong.

So it was pleasing to see that there is a suggestion that the amenity tips will be reopened this weekend (they should never have closed), and garden centres next weekend (why not – they are mostly an outdoor space), and that DIY facemasks will become mandatory (something I’ve been advocating).
The ‘bubble’ strategy also seems to be gaining ground, and if implemented should take a lot of pressure off people’s stress at not being able to see close family or friends.

People have reacted in several ways during this lockdown – they’re bored, frightened, financially challenged, or they think it doesn’t apply to them. Even if all restrictions were lifted overnight, not all people would emerge like a butterfly from a chrysalis. Many would be distrustful of going out – after all, for the past five weeks they’ve been indoctrinated that ‘outside’ means the risk of death. So it will take time for the elderly and those with health issues to accept that leaving their home is safe.

There is talk about a ‘new normal’. That’s just Newspeak straight out of George Orwell’s ‘1984’- a way of getting people to accept a situation which is not necessarily for their benefit. Any restriction is not normal, and giving it a name doesn’t make it any more acceptable. My worry is that the ‘new normal’ will morph into ‘normal’.

*****

I went to Martin’s shop this morning to continue the cataloging. There were almost no cars and no people to be seen. Which just proves to me that all those ‘essential’ journeys yesterday weren’t essential at all, but were jollies because the sun was shining.

Pubs could reopen if landlords rationed beer to two or three pints per customer then asked them to go home to help with social distancing measures, it has been claimed.
Professor Eyal Winter, of Lancaster University, an economist advising politicians on how to ease the coronavirus restrictions, said social distancing would have to be enforced if pubs reopen. One possible result of his proposals would be to stagger the number of people going into pubs over the course of a day to avoid them getting ‘very full’ at one time.
Let’s think about that. You go into a pub, and have a couple of beers and the landlord asks you to leave (assuming he’s got a queue outside, otherwise why would he?). What do you do? Go to the next pub for another couple. Rinse and repeat. And what’s this ‘stagger the number of people going into pubs over the course of a day’? Do they mean the number of people staggering into pubs over the course of a day? Well, I know what they mean but, if the population is back at work, how are most people going to be able to go to a pub at some random time alloted to them when they should be at work? Or maybe they can set up a three-shift system: one week mornings, one week afternoons, one week evenings, rotated according to your name or birthday or NI number.
Yet another crazy idea, ill-thought out, and basically unworkable.

While I am all for mandatory facemasks being introduced I can see one huge problem: it will be very difficult to identify people, such as the scum that stole food from a doorstop, which was intended for an elderly man in Swindon. The thief had a face mask and hoodie. Hopefully the video that has been released will be seen by someone who recognises the clothing he was wearing and he is named, shamed, and jailed.

Update to my comments regarding the Spitfire flypast. It appears, allegedly, that the RAF’s Battle Of Britain Memorial Flight is due to take to the air, but it was all kept Secret Squirrel ‘in case people broke lockdown to come out and take a look’. You couldn’t make it up!

Last night’s Panorama investigation said Number 10 had failed to procure enough protective equipment, such as masks, gowns and visors, claiming ministers counted 547million gloves individually, instead of as 273.5million pairs, and included items which are not considered PPE, including millions of cleaning products, waste bags, detergents and paper towels, to boast of delivering one billion bits of PPE to NHS staff frontline in their fight against the coronavirus.

Day 37 – Wednesday 29th April 2020

After a very wet day yesterday, the sun is making an effort this morning. There is a name for the nice smell you notice after rain: petrichor. So we have that smell and sunshine, but not for long I’m afraid as there is another very wet front coming over this afternoon.

Yesterday I got some more cataloguing done, and a quick count shows we have 405 records completed. Sounds good till you realise my database has 3306 records in it – and that’s just about half of the stock in the shop! So back again for another couple of hours today methinks.

****

Just after I wrote the above, we lost the internet at home so off I trotted to Martin’s shop round the corner, only to be met by the chap from the fishmonger’s next door who announced that there was a power outage all along the parade of shops. You couldn’t make it up!

As my laptop was fully charged I was still able to work, and I’ve indexed another 100 records.

Luckily the power was restored after about an hour, but the internet is still a little unpredictable here at home.

While I appreciate that the whole world is keen to get back to work, I think that rushing to lift the lockdown is a mistake. This virus will only be controlled as long as we are willing to accept that it’ll take as long as it takes. I’m getting mightily fed-up with every armchair expert and his dog thinking they can bend the rules to suit themselves, even if doing so makes things worse. I can’t believe the country is so desperate for a takeaway burger that people were queueing round the block at the only Burger King open.
Someone at today’s press briefing was trying to get one of the scientists to agree that if the virus was less dangerous outside then beaches, barbeques, and beer gardens could be used. Luckily he didn’t fall into the trap, because if he had the next fine day would’ve seen the beaches packed with people and their portable barbeques, and beer gardens open the length and breadth of the country.
They say patience is a virtue. There aren’t many virtuous people in the UK it seems.

Meanwhile Captain Tom has a forest-worth of birthday cards for his 100th birthday tomorrow, and his fundraising is now standing at a shade over £29.5 million.

Day 38 – Thursday 30th April 2020

Captain Colonel Tom Moore’s 100th birthday.

Today’s weather forecast: bright start with rain arriving (in this corner of England) by lunchtime.

I have scanned the first 10th of the Daily Fail’s website this morning.

It starts off well enough, with the top story being HM Queen’s gift to Tom Moore – she’s made him an Honorary Colonel – which was very appropriate.

Then there’s a story that BAME healthcare workers may be taken off the frontline because there seems to be a genetic link that makes them more susceptible to the Covid-19 virus.

And another hopeful story that claims experts can’t find a single instance of a child passing on coronavirus, which looks good for the idea of getting children back with their families and back to school.

Then things start to slide, with a piece about the different types of pandemic personae, obviously commissioned by the editor-of-the-day to ‘lighten the mood’.

And we bottom out (at least in the bit I’ve read) with conspiracy theories – including Bill Gates’ plan to microchip everyone via a ‘vaccine’ (and/or cull 15% of the population, as he’s also claimed to have started the pandemic) and Dr Anthony Fauci blocking cures to enrich vaccine makers. The conspiracy theories are facilitated by Facebook which, under the guise of a blanket policy that everyone is entitled to their opinion, however deranged, allows the formation of groups to promote myths, misinformation, and wild theories to the gullible and ill-educated.

Which got me to thinking:

Suppose this was 1970, not 2020. No internet, no mobile phones, no Instagram influencers, no Twitterverse, no 24-hr TV channels competing for advertising, no daily press briefings beamed round the globe. The only sources of news are radio, TV and newspapers.

Would we still have conspiracy theories? Well, yes, we’ve had them since Roswell and the moon landings, but in order to disseminate a theory one had to write a book (which takes time) and then get a newspaper to take an interest in it before you’d garner followers.

We would certainly not have the dissent and unrest currently prevalent because we could not easily compare how our government’s strategy compared to those in other countries.

I’m not suggesting that it is a preferable situation – God knows I’d be lost without the internet – but while I see a huge advantage in global transparency, it also breeds disinformation.

Here’s another thought:

If a population is restricted, for say a crisis, and that restriction has obvious financial implications (because almost nobody’s working) and the population needs to acquiesce for everybody’s safety, is it a good idea to for the media (and I’m looking at you Daily Fail) to run scare stories (which may (or probably not) be based on fact) about how bad the economy is, how expensive things will be afterwards, and how long it’ll take to recover? Totally irresponsible journalism (if you can call it that).

JUST IN: Colonel Tom’s fundraising is now over £31 million at £31,269,006! That means over £1.25 million has been added in the past 5 hours!!

Also just in, and something I feel very strongly about: “Over-50s should be kept in coronavirus lockdown for longer and FINED if they cannot prove their age when out and about in public”. What a bloody stupid idea. So how would Martin and I shop and take care of his Mum if we can’t go out? And I’m sure we’re not the only ones in that situation. And what about NHS and key workers over 50? Are they going to be locked up as well? That’ll certainly help the staff shortages, I don’t think.
“ Andrew Oswald, Professor of Economics and Behavioural Science at Warwick, said people older than 50 ‘do not realise the danger they are about to be in’.”. Oh yes they do! They’re not the ones breaking lockdown. I see from the comments on the story that I’m not the only one to think this is a crack-pot idea.

*****

An interesting headline from the San Francisco Chronicle:

“Asymptomatic staff, untested at many nursing homes, are spreading the coronavirus”

“As coronavirus infections increase in nursing homes throughout the state, Santa Clara County made the chilling discovery this month that dozens of staff members with no symptoms of the coronavirus had unknowingly infected the very people they cared for at three facilities experiencing big outbreaks.”

Is anybody really surprised? And that is probably exactly why we have the same problem in our care homes (and why Italy was so badly hit).

Day 39 – Friday 1st May 2020

Colonel ‘Captain Tom’ Moore’s fundraising on Just Giving has ended, having raised an incredible £32,794,651 gifted by 1,519,311 people for charities that support NHS staff and volunteers caring for Covid-19 patients. Not a bad result for the old chap who probably thought he was being a bit ambitious aiming for £1,000 when he started.

As we slide towards the end of our sixth week in lockdown I thought I’d look back and see what I’ve achieved, and the answer is: not very much. I did figure out how to put Martin’s record shop online quite early on, but the process of cataloguing all the stock is slow and laborious, though we are getting there. I’ve knitted one and a half jumpers. And the garden has had work done, though there’s still loads more to do since it’s been neglected for about five years. But the flat is no more tidy than it was in March, mostly because I’d rather do anything else than housework.

As far as the lockdown is concerned I’m still convinced that we won’t progress till mid-June at the earliest (because that’s twelve weeks from when it started, and twelve weeks was the timeframe originally suggested that the wrinklies should self-isolate) and even then things will not be back to anything like normal. I suspect that there will still be restrictions for the rest of this year, because any lifting of the lockdown brings the possibility of a second wave (without a cure or vaccine) and we cannot afford to return to a scenario where the NHS is overwhelmed.
Germany has already seen their numbers rising again. Spain is now allowing people to go out for a walk (separate from exercising), but in tightly controlled timeslots to separate the generations, so it will be interesting to see how that works out. Spain is also limiting the time and distance, unlike here in the UK where people have been allowed to drive to parks etc. and the idea of one hour’s exercise was only a verbal indication and has not been written into the law.

The suggestion I mentioned yesterday, where all the oldies are kept behind closed doors for the foreseeable while the younger people go back to normal (ish) life is not a practical solution. As I mentioned, there are many who would be confined under that strategy who are actively caring for even older people, whether friends or family. I doubt the government would be willing to finance a taskforce to take over that work, for two reasons – getting the staff to do it (and the timeframe as they’d all need to be CRB-checked), and the huge cost, even at minimum wage.

A footnote to the above:
Of the people who have been fined for refusing to stay at home, eight out of ten fines were given to men – and 54 % of rebels were aged between 18 and 29.

Martin makes two trips a day to his Mum, to ensure she has a hot meal each day, and is drinking enough (she forgets), and to make sure she has some company each day, because she doesn’t set foot outside her apartment so she sees no-one. His main contact with her throughout the day is by phone, but her eyesight is so bad she can’t make calls. So he calls her a couple of times during the day. But if she doesn’t pick up the call (like yesterday) he then has to drive over to check she’s OK – especially if she wasn’t feeling too well when he last saw her. She has dizzy spells, and she has had falls, so each time he can’t get an answer he has to go and check. If she had been relocated to Ilfracombe when the lockdown started she’d be living in a house with other people, and would have been far more comfortable.

So yesterday (as on just about all previous occasions) Doris had taken the phone into the bathroom and left it there, so she didn’t hear it ring when Martin called (she has hearing aids in both ears), and she was fine. We have now decided to install an amplified bell onto the phone system so she can hear it ring anywhere in the apartment, as currently, the ring is only from the handset. She;ll still have to find the handset if she’s left it in another room, but it should save Martin some stress, as he usually tries calling for about half an hour before he goes over to check her.

Boris’ return to the podium at yesterday’s press briefing probably sent a collective sigh of relief through the Cabinet, who have been rotated into the limelight during his absence, with varying degrees of success. I think it is helpful to have a focal person in the current circumstances, and whatever you think about Boris, he is the Prime Minister and the one with ‘the buck stops here’ on his desk. It doesn’t matter whether he’s doing a good job or a bad job and making the right decisions or the wrong ones (in other people’s opinion) he has a responsibility that I think few would relish, and the constant nit-picking is not helping anyone.
Not only is everyone and his dog a viral expert, they are all also experts on how we get out of the current situation. But, and here’s the rub, they all say something different. So even if Boris has COBRA, and other experts advising him, when push comes to shove he has to weigh everything up and make a decision – some decision, any decision – as we have to have a path (visible or not). He might make a wrong decision, but who’s right all the time (apart from me – ask Martin!)? Many great statesmen have made wrong decisions in their time – they wouldn’t be human if they didn’t. But the ability to adapt and change course, to learn from past mistakes, and to accept that mistakes have been made is what characterises a good leader.

Meanwhile I see Victoria Beckham Ltd has announced it will not, after all, be using government funds to furlough its staff. It claims this has nothing to do with the backlash. Right.

The Department of Transport has told local councils to start fixing the potholes in the roads during lockdown. About time!
From a report in Reuters a week ago:
In Israel, the government instigated a $280 million impromptu campaign nearly two months ago to accelerate their road-building projects, using labourers deployed with masks and social distancing.
Traffic density in Israel is three times the average among the 36 industrialised countries of the OECD. Commuters lose on average an hour a day in traffic congestion, a hit to productivity that costs about $5 billion a year.

Since increasingly stringent coronavirus restrictions began in February, traffic has dropped about 85%, and on the eve of the Passover holiday, one of the busiest times of year, Israel was under lockdown and traffic was just 1% of the usual level.

Some of the biggest and most crucial projects, like the final stretch of a new fast train between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem or the expansion of a highway in central Israel, will be finished six months to a year ahead of schedule because building was accelerated.
A main street where part of Tel Aviv’s new subway is being built will be closed for 10 days rather than five weeks.

If there aren’t enough workers, companies have a green light to hire as many as necessary, a rare phenomenon since unemployment has soared to 26% in the crisis.
If they lack equipment they are told to improvise. Railroad workers who needed to erect electric poles in a remote area dismantled a cement mixer and attached it to a train car to bring it up the line. Can you imagine ‘Elf ‘n’ Safety allowing that in the UK??

If you were up in court having admitted attempted theft, theft, handling stolen goods, burglary, criminal damage, dangerous driving, driving with no insurance, possession of a blade, and escape from lawful custody, what sort of sentence do you think you’d get?
How about a two-year suspended jail term, a ban from driving for 12 months, ordered to wear an electronic tag, and a three-month 7pm-7am curfew?
Would you think you got off easy?
And you can go back to your neighbourhood, despite over 100 of your neighbours petitioning for your removal (because almost all of those offenses were committed against your neighbours).
As one local said: ‘He has stolen a car and threatened to stab someone and still doesn’t get jailed. What does he have to do?’

Talking Heads was a collection of six monologues written by Alan Bennett, aired by the BBC in 1988, and followed ten years later by six more — all starring the best of Britain’s stage talent. They were brilliant. I love the wonderfully descriptive language as each character followed a sometimes very rambling train of thought.
Now BBC1 has announced it is remaking Talking Heads, inspired by the sudden need for TV drama that can be filmed within the constraints of social distancing.
Two of the original scripts will not be remade, including ‘A Cream Cracker Under The Settee’ which starred Thora Hird as Doris, a woman of uncompromising standards, who has fallen and fractured her hip while trying to do the dusting that her home help has missed earlier in the day, and for whom the possibility of being found before she dies of dehydration is zero, as the home help is her only visitor and will not return for a week.
But to compensate, there are two new scripts written by Bennett.
Something to look forward to, as filming is already underway.

****

Am I the only person who does not have a shred of pity for billionaire Oprah Winfrey as she’s seen struggling to change the bed linen in her $50 million home? Nor do I feel sorry for her having to manage without her personal chef. Why do these people feel it’s necessary to share their difficulties with their fans? It just makes her look incompetent.

I’ve just read a story about a family in London whose cat dragged a live duck through the cat-flap and into their home. The bird recovered and flew out of a window.
It reminded me of a time when I was sitting on the settee in the living room and I could hear a strange crunching noise. In those days, I had a settee that had legs about nine inches long, so there was a large space under it. When I crouched down to see where the noise was coming from I saw my cat with a pigeon (sadly dead) which he had dragged indoors. The pigeon was a bit mauled – I guess the cat had been trying to eat it. The pigeon was also ringed, so it was probably a homing pigeon.
I have also had cats that liked to bring frogs indoors, live and dead, and dump them in the kitchen. The live frogs obviously tried to escape from the cats, and many moons later I found a mummified one stuck under the washing machine.

Day 40 – Saturday 2nd May 2020

Well, it’s been a busy day today. It’s nearly 5pm and this is the first chance I’ve had to write.

We started the day by finishing off the poster round. We’d gone out yesterday, and lulled into a false sense of security by the previous two weeks, we only took half a small bucket of paste. The posters we put up a month ago for Southend Council had stayed put, so we assumed they’d still be OK, and that we’d only need to paste the odd corner down. No such luck. There were at least a dozen posters missing. These are not small either – 4 or 5 times A3 in size, like a banner. Although one or two were hanging off, probably due to the rain a few days ago, most of them were conspicuous by their absence, which means they’d probably been ripped off. So by the time we were half-way through the round yesterday we knew we didn’t have enough paste with us, so out again this morning to do the remaining ones.

Then Martin settled down to participate in an online auction – not eBay, a proper auction with an auctioneer and everything, but all done online – while I went to the shop to carry on cataloguing the stock. Four hours later, and I had finished one big section – 944 records – which means I did about 300 today. My back was complaining, but at least it was done.

Martin had gone over to see Doris and cook her lunch after the auction finished, and when he returned we popped into Tesco’s. Then I was out in the garden tying up the remains of the brambles which had been beaten down by the aforementioned rain. Then indoors to start dinner for this evening.

So now I have time to do some writing.

A couple of stories I’d seen earlier:

A British multi-millionaire, who lives in Monaco, is crowd-funding to sue the UK Government for lockdown, claiming it has gone on too long, there is no justification for it, and it’s hurting businesses. He’s a businessman, by the way, who runs an airline which flies out of Southend airport. Two things come to mind – why is he crowd-funding when he could obviously afford to fund the cost himself> Does he feel he can’t win? And secondly, who are the idiots that have chipped in about £30k? Are they mad?

The second story was on a report from the Chelsea & Westminster hospital saying that there are over 120 different drugs being trialled as a treatment for Covid-19, and if any are even moderately effective it would transform the profile of the pandemic and the way politicians tackle the virus.
Now that looks hopeful.
But, and there’s always a but…
Even knowing there’s a cure, would you risk catching the virus? I wouldn’t.

Day 41 – Sunday 3rd May 2020

Another bumper fun-packed day.

Am I bored? Not really. But I am in one of those moods where you’ve got a million things to do and none of them interests you.

The news channels have become so predictable that it’s hardly worth reading them, save for a few interesting nuggets. For the most part, the stories fall into a few categories: Covid-19 is deadly, so we’ll all have to stay indoors for ages; Covid-19 is overrated and lockdown should be lifted now; loads of people are working on a vaccine; loads more are working on a cure; millions of people have been infected (possibly, as we don’t actually know because we don’t test); a lot of people have died (but how many we’re not sure because we don’t test); people are getting fed up of being restricted; and everyone is an expert.

Interesting nuggets:

Golf courses are being re-opened in the USA, with modifications to ensure social distancing and to avoid cross-contamination e.g. the pots in the holes are being raised so you can hear if the ball hits it, to avoid touching the flagpole, and no shots can be taken from bunkers to avoid touching the rake. Makes sense to me, as golf is an outdoor sport, played mostly as pairs or fours, and people are usually well-spaced out.

A planning commissioner of a Northern California city was removed from his post Friday night after saying that just as a forest fire clears dead brush, “the sick, the old, the injured” should be left to meet their “natural course in nature” during the coronavirus outbreak.
Via a Zoom meeting, the five-member City Council of Antioch, a city of about 110,000 people 35 miles east of Oakland, voted unanimously to remove Ken Turnage II from his post as chairman of the city’s planning commission.
Turnage, who owns a home restoration company in Antioch, had characterized the elderly, the homeless and people with weak immune systems as a drain on society who should be left to perish as COVID-19 sweeps through Contra Costa County, where it has killed 28 people and infected 907 to date.
“If we were to live our lives, let nature run its course, yes we will all feel hardship, we will all feel loss,” he wrote on Facebook. But “as a species,” he continued, the deaths would alleviate strain on the country’s healthcare and Social Security systems and free up jobs and housing. As for “our homeless and other people who just defile themselves by either choice or mental issues,” Turnage wrote, the virus would “fix what is a significant burden on our society.”
He insisted his personal views had no bearing on his duties as a planning commissioner.

Not that anyone will now get a chance to find out.

Contrary to previous reports / popular opinion / unsubstantiated claims from ‘experts’. People who have tested positive for Covid-19 and recovered are developing antibodies. Well, that makes sense as there have already been trials of plasma therapy in hospitals, where sick patients are treated with plasma from recovered patients. And in how many years have we been on the planet? the human body has not yet failed to overcome a virus to the extent we were exterminated by it. We generally develop antibodies after an infection, and that helps us resist further re-infections. Though I did see one post on Facebook a few weeks ago where an armchair keyboard expert claimed that one could repeatedly catch the infection and each time it was worse.

Day 42 – Monday 4th May 2020

The last day of our sixth week in lockdown.
Today should be a Bank Holiday, but that has been moved to Friday of this week, to celebrate VE-Day.

The weather forecast is good, so there’s already one load of washing on the line and a second swishing round the washing machine. I’m in Monday morning mode! Even got the dishwasher slooshing the dishes.

I have a couple more batches of records to catalogue and then we can start our online selling, so my morning will be taken up with that.

Martin bought some lots at the auction on Saturday (as if we don’t have enough records already!) and he’s picking them up today, so his day is pretty well mapped out: Mum; collect records; sort records; watch the last episodes of Breaking Bad.

And at some point today, we aim to move the bench from the patio to the end of the garden (all of about 20ft!) and trim some overhanging branches off the elder tree. The weather forecast for tomorrow is damp, so I’d like to get the sorting out done today.

I see that it’s claimed Boris will make a big pronouncement on Sunday, regarding the plan for lifting the lockdown, after the COBRA meeting this Thursday. ‘A leaked draft’ according to the Daily Fail, will mean some of the social distancing will be reduced to enable businesses to restart. I suspect this is more kite-flying, to see how any suggestions might be taken.

It was interesting to see two stories side by side yesterday; the first said schools could reopen soon for various categories of pupils; the second was about a teachers’ union, claiming it was unsafe for teachers to go back to work. As far as I know, teachers haven’t been furloughed, so they have less incentive to go back to work if they are sitting at home on full pay. Just sayin’.

And from today’s ‘You Couldn’t Make It Up’ files:

A management consultant paid almost £2,000 a day to cut costs at a struggling NHS trust, Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board, in North Wales, while living in Marbella has himself been axed – to help it save money. He had been hired as a ‘recovery director’ for a health board with a budget deficit of £40million.

Under his contract, he could spend one day a week working from Marbella, on the Costa del Sol, where he has a duplex penthouse. At the time of his appointment he also had a £1million home in Enfield, north London.

But it has emerged that he had his contract terminated two months early as the trust battles the financial impact of coronavirus.

The board’s projected deficit to the end of the 2020/21 year is expected to be around £40million – identical to when he was hired.

The cash-strapped board is controlled by the Labour-run Welsh government.

A Freedom of Information request by Plaid Cymru revealed the board had spent £2million on 37 management consultants since 2018.

Llyr Gruffydd, a Plaid Cymru member of the Welsh Assembly, said: ‘So the positive news is the board has saved £70,000, but they’ve paid him almost £300,000 in eight months to achieve what exactly?’

John O’Connell, of the TaxPayers’ Alliance, said at the time of his appointment: ‘The fastest way for [him] to save money would be to sign his own P45.’

I saw a post on Facebook yesterday:

You never realise how anti-social you are until there’s a pandemic and your life doesn’t really change that much.

That’s me!

Day 43 – Tuesday 5th May 2020

As we enter our seventh week of lockdown, the main story of the day is the proposed plan to exit lockdown.

It was obvious to me from the start that the last restrictions to be lifted will be those applying to the hospitality and entertainment industry.
It would be impossible to have any sort of distancing or mandatory face masks in places where people eat and drink, so restaurants, pubs, theatres, and venues will have to stay closed. And even family events such as weddings and birthday parties will also remain off-limits.

However, with a large number of people working from home at the moment, it shouldn’t be too difficult to get office-based businesses reopened. Nor should it be impossible for tradesmen to restart, so all the self-employed plumbers, electricians, painters, etc should be able to work in someone’s home, even if in face masks.

Since supermarkets and other big essential shops have remained open they have had to adapt their stores to protect both staff and customers (and this has been a rolling programme) so it’s not beyond the wit and wisdom for all shops to reopen using a similar strategy.
Martin and I have discussed this in relation to his shop. We can restrict the number of people inside at any one time, and require people to use the hand sanitiser at the door, and even ask people to use a face mask.
Our shop is small, so limiting customers to a maximum of two would work, since there generally is only one person manning the shop at any time. In truth, we used to get one or two people in at a time most of the time, so it will be a small change for us.

Meanwhile we now have nearly 1100 records in the catalogue so we can upload those to our website and start promoting our online sales, with ‘click & collect’ or local delivery.

I have deliberately not rushed to get our online system going because I don’t think records are an ‘essential’ item. And encouraging people to come to the shop to collect their purchases is against the spirit of the lockdown which does require journeys to be made for essential purposes. Nor does Martin driving round town dropping off packages count as essential journeys. But if the lockdown is to be relaxed enough to allow shops like his to open, then I see no reason not to start distance selling.

The kipper season, in newspaper terms, was always the summer months when the politicians were on holiday and there wasn’t much ‘news’ around. But, as the term is generally taken to mean ‘a lean period of trade’ in any business, I guess we’re in the kipper season now.
The point of mentioning it is that during the kipper season you would get ridiculous stories in the newspapers that under normal circumstances would have been spiked (literally a paper copy of the story would have been stuck on a spike (a sharp piece of metal about 6 ins long attached to a wooden base that sat on an editor’s desk)) to be discarded.
And I have seen two such stories already: the suggestion that the cost of BBC TV Licence should be based on the rateable value of the property it relates to; and another that students will have to pay the full fees for university even if they can’t attend nor use any of the facilities so long as there is an online learning platform. Both crazy, and indefensible.

“Home cook shares her three-step recipe for beef and red wine casserole – and it will be ready in just 25 minutes” screamed the headline, so I just had to read the story, didn’t I?

Mostly because I was a little sceptical as any fast-cook beef recipe usually relies on some sort of frying steak. But casseroles are generally prepared with braising or stewing steak, which requires longer cooking.

“To replicate the dish at home for yourself, all you’ll need is two diced beef steaks, carrots, mushrooms, beef and red wine casserole sauce, tomato paste and half a cup of wine.” So, unspecified beef ‘steaks’.

“Once you’ve got everything in your casserole dish, you merely need to mix it together and pop it into your microwaveable pressure cooker for 25 minutes.”

So, first buy a microwaveable pressure cooker, unless you’re one of the few people who already have this unheard-of appliance.

Personally I like my slow cookers, and I manage to be organised enough not to have to cobble together a casserole from scratch with only 30 minutes notice.

From The Jerusalem Post:
The Israel Institute for Biological Research (IIBR) has completed the development phase of COVID-19 antibody or passive vaccine, according to a statement by the Defense Ministry.
Defense Minister Naftali Bennett visited the Ness Ziona-based lab on Monday and was briefed by the research team, who revealed a breakthrough antibody that attacks the virus and neutralizes it in the body.
Seems promising.

It’s stories like this that make me angry that council workers weren’t furloughed:

From the ‘You Couldn’t Make It Up’ files:

Spelthorne Borough Council (somewhere in the region of Ashford, Surrey) have sent a letter saying they’ve had a complaint about the Thursday ‘clap for NHS workers’ going on in a leafy cul-de-sac in their area. It’s not so much the clapping as the weekly playing of (and accompanying community singing of) ‘You’ll Never Walk Alone’ and ‘We’ll Meet Again’, through a loudspeaker.

While I like the first song, I can’t say I’m surprised about the second.

But really – once a week for five or six minutes, and it’s considered a nuisance? Some people just have to have something to complain about, and a jobsworth at the council has justified their existence this week.

Day 44 – Wednesday 6th May 2020

We are promised a few days of increasing warmth and sunshine – unusual for a Bank Holiday in the UK, as it generally rains.

So, having published the first section of our record database online yesterday – with about 1150 items in it – I’m hoping to spend a bit of time in the garden. There;s still loads more to do with the records but as we’re in for another three weeks minimum of this lockdown, I don’t think I need to rush.

If there’s one thing we all know about this pandemic, it’s that we actually don’t know anything for sure. Every day there are new experts and new reports – some in accord, some divergent, some hopeful, some frightening.
The latest target is the possible ways to lift the lockdown.

The mighty ‘we’ll bring the country to a halt to secure our workers’ rights’ unions are now demanding the government fights their battles with businesses.
TUC general secretary Frances O’Grady said:
‘We want new binding rules for employers to publish their risk assessment and action plan. We want clear guidance to set out the minimum standards that employers must meet in order to protect public safety. And we want ministers to outline a new tough approach to enforcement.
Unless the Government significantly strengthens its plans, safe working will not be guaranteed. The current proposals fail to provide clear direction to those employers who want to act responsibly. And they are an open goal for rogue employers, who will cut corners and put their workers – and the wider community – at risk.’

Prospect union general secretary Mike Clancy said: ‘If the economy is to recover sustainably and safely then a return to work must be managed properly. The question is how the advice from Public Health England is grounded in relevant evidence. The Government must provide absolute clarity on how workplaces can operate safely, and it must set out the evidence for its advice.’

So those same unions that brought the miners and train drivers and god knows who else out on strike now can’t come up with their own best working practises and instead want to be able to blame the government for failing to protect their workers. Why aren’t they looking at the evidence for themselves and coming up with a strategy to get their workers back into employment?

Makes you wonder why people actually belong to a union.

Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government’s chief scientific adviser, told the Commons Health Committee: ‘The evidence is, as far as you can get very firm evidence on this, that essentially a minute at two metres … is about the same risk as six seconds at one metre. So that gives you some idea of why the two metres becomes important. And the risk at one metre is about 10 to 30 times higher than the risk at two metres.
So the distancing is an important part of this.’
This may be accurate (although there are others who would claim that distancing should be at least 24ft), but completely ignores the benefits of face masks. So how is it helpful?

Here’s an interesting scenario:
Imagine you live in say Syria, Afghanistan or Cameroon, and you decide to flee your home country and heave up on some other shore as a refugee.
You take no means of identity (maybe you don’t have any), but you do have a mobile phone. Is it unreasonable for your host country to examine your phone to determine who you are and where you’ve come from? Bear in mind, you cannot prove you are who you say you are, nor where you have come from, yet you are asking for shelter and support.
Having already evaded the Dublin Regulation, which requires that asylum seekers have their asylum claim registered in the first EU country they arrive in, and resisted fingerprinting and registration until you get to an asylum-seeker friendly country, such as say Germany, and, after surrendering your phone for examination and being accepted as a refugee, with all the concomitant benefits, would you then turn round and sue the government for invasion of privacy?
At least three people are doing just that, aided and abetted by a civil rights group who claim phone-checking is a violation of the refugees’ human rights.
Another one for the ‘You Couldn’t Make It Up’ file, I think.

Day 45 – Thursday 7th May 2020

When I started writing this blog six and a bit weeks ago, we were at the start of an unknown journey. Huge changes were forced on us – not by the government, but by the virus that threatened us all. So there were a lot of ‘what ifs?’ and ‘how’s that gonna work?’ questions.

As time has passed I see I’m writing less. That’s because we’ve settled down into a routine that allows us to stay safe and take care of ourselves and other people. The news stories on a daily basis are now very repetitive; guestimates of what happens next; complaints about what’s gone on; suggestions as to how to do things better.

So today I see that Boris yesterday said we’re in for another three weeks of lockdown (no surprise there) and that on Sunday he’ll announce some sort of a plan to gradually lift the constraints on both people and businesses. There has been much speculation as to exactly who and what might get back to some sort of normal, subject to the ‘numbers’ going in the right direction.

My feeling is that whatever is allowed, it will become a free-for-all. Under the lockdown regulations, where only essential movement outside the home is permitted, there have been loads of people ignoring the restrictions, most on the grounds of ‘no-one tells me what to do’.
If cafes and pubs are allowed to open with outside seating areas, the roads will be gridlocked with people all desperate for a pint or a Starbucks’ latte. Look at the queue that formed at the only Burger King to open a week or so ago.

It is interesting to see that almost all the suggestions being put forward as Boris’ first move are geared towards the outside. Suggestions such as golf, tennis and fishing could be resumed; outside seating in pubs and cafes, parks and beaches now available, and travel to such places. This all makes sense to me, as the chances of infection outside are very much lower than indoors.

So, on the eve of the VE-Day celebrations, where people are arranging social-distancing street parties, all held in their own front gardens, with bunting strung across the streets, we have a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel, though just how long the tunnel is, is anybody’s guess.

Which brings me to ‘track & trace’. Why has our government spent god-knows how much commissioning an app – which only works on smartphones anyway – when Apple/Google have already developed one?
The NHS app apparently drains the phone battery, only works if the screen is unlocked (which it isn’t most of the time) and has serious security implications. The Apple/Google app stores the data in a different way, so security isn’t an issue. Several European countries are considering using the Apple/Google app, and it may also be used to determine if visitors to a country (once the borders are re-opened) need to quarantine for 14 days on arrival. Seems the NHS app is not compatible with that system, so anyone booking a foreign holiday will have to schedule at least a month, to allow for 14 days in quarantine before you can go and enjoy the holiday.
And at no point in its history has any IT commissioned by the government for the NHS actually worked properly, nor been able to synchronise with any other IT before or after.
Makes me wonder just who’s benefiting from these projects.

Professor Neil Ferguson resigned as an advisor to the government after he was found to have broken the lockdown rules. Quite right. WE can’t have a ‘do as I say, not as I do’ thing going on with the great and the good. But why does his questionable judgement in meeting with his lover also mean that all of his scientific work should be called to account?

Day 46 – Friday 8th May 2020

75th Anniversary of VE-Day

Day 47 – Saturday 9th May 2020

So, yesterday I was so busy all day that I didn’t get a chance to write anything. I’ll be making up for it today!

It was the VE-Day anniversary yesterday. We had bunting strung across our road, and those with decent-sized front gardens came out and had tea, respecting the social distancing rules. We had HM The Queen on the TV (didn’t watch) and our local MP, David Amess, put up a valiant fight against technology by trying to host a 2-hour live show on Youtube that died after about 45 minutes, sadly.

The weather was lovely. Martin went over to see Doris in the afternoon as there was a party organised in the grounds of her sheltered accomodation, with music, sing-alongs, and bring-your-own-cakes-and-drinks. Went very well, and he recorded a short video of the residents, all of whom are old enough to remember VE-Day itself.

My Mum was just short of 13 when war broke out, but my Dad was 26, and he joined the Fleet Air Arm – the Navy’s equivalent of the RAF. As far as I know, he spent all his time in the UK at various bases, keeping the Navy’s aircraft repaired.
He was finally invalided out of the service when he was about 35, and was told he had a limited life expectancy due to stomach ulcers (they couldn’t fix them in those days).
What do doctors know?! He met and married Mum, fathered four children, and died at the ripe old age of 87!

He did have health problems though, and lived on a diet of white meat, white fish, tripe, cheese sandwiches, and milk puddings. As a child I must have had every form of milk pudding going, including some that are probably not around anymore. As well as your basic rice pudding, we had: flaked rice, tapioca, flaked tapioca, sago, semolina, ground rice, egg custard, and my favourite – boiled rice with jam.
When he got to about 60, Dad went into hospital and had an operation that apparently fixed his stomach issues. Then he could (and did) eat things like sausages, and spicy food. My parents started travelling, going to France, Germany, and Cyprus – something they had never done before.

So, what was I so busy with yesterday? Getting 1351 vinyl records into Martin’s e-commerce shop. I had figured out a way of uploading them in bulk, instead of singly, though it still took nearly an hour for the system to process the data.
Then I had to set up a shipping system to only sell to our local area (because we don’t want to post stuff at the moment) and allow customers to choose Click & Collect or Home Delivery. As I hadn’t done any of that before, it was a learning curve, but I got there.
Next a test purchase to make sure the system worked – that went sort-of OK, but there was a problem – we only have one of everything (even if we have several copies of a vinyl they all vary depending on the sort of life they’ve had) and the system didn’t show I’d made a purchase by reducing the stock level to zero. As I’d chosen a non-instant (bank transfer) payment method I thought maybe that as the transaction wasn’t finalised (because a) I hadn’t actually paid, and b) for bank transfer payments the system has to be updated manually) that was why the stock level wasn’t reduced.
By that time it was so late and I had square eyes, so I left it for this morning.

First thing, with a cup of coffee in one hand and a ciggie in the other, I try another test purchase, this time via PayPal, which is instantaneous. Oh dear – that didn’t work. Well, it half did, as the PayPal button took me to the PayPal website, but didn’t show the bill I should be paying.
Reset the PayPal credentials in the e-commerce interface and tried again. Success! Well, sort of – I could now see the bill to be paid, but the logo was from Martin’s event business, which was not what I wanted.
An hour of Googling, and I find that the ability to customise the PayPal interface has been withdrawn, which is a bloody nuisance.
Meanwhile I go back to the website and find the stock level for the vinyl I ‘bought’ hasn’t gone down. No good. The whole idea of the system is to eventually get every record in the shop on the website and for the shop to use the Point-of-Sale plugin, so that no matter how we sell a vinyl, it comes off the stock list.
That way we don’t sell something in the shop, and at the same time someone buys it online, nor do we have to manually update the stock list. It’s a good system, when it works. And it wasn’t working because I assumed that the system would automatically recognise the sale and reduce the stock. It doesn’t. There’s a box to tick ‘Manage Stock?’ and I hadn’t ‘ticked’ it in the upload.
So I was faced with either wiping out the whole of the stock I uploaded yesterday (which I didn’t want to do as the POS plugin seems to remember stock even if you’ve deleted it – I have to fix that) or editing each entry individually. There are 68 pages of entries. I did the whole of the first page one at a time. Then I thought there has to be a quicker way – and there was – you can edit a whole page-worth of entries at once. Result! I am up to page 10, and doing it as I’m writing this. Well done, Karen!

For the most part, this is how I always work. I see no point in learning reams about how to do something when you either only need to do it once, or so infrequently that you forget how you did it last time. So it’s all a bit trial and error, but we get there in the end.

I shall sit here updating till it’s done, as we’ve now announced the online shop is open, then it’s out into the garden. Martin thinks we should have a bonfire tonight while the weather’s good, as the forecast for the next 10 days or so is cold and damp, and I don’t garden in the cold and damp.

I’m told the seafront was rammed again yesterday. Nice weather and loads of take-aways open. Boris is doing his Churchill bit tomorrow and I think a lot of people were thinking he’ll be loosening the lockdown, so they decided to do it themselves a couple of days early.

It is worrying that both Germany and Italy, who have started to lift their lockdowns, are experiencing a rise in infection, with Germany re-imposing it in some areas, and the Mayor of Milan saying that if people don’t respect the regulations still in force he will close the city down again.

Here in the UK, we apparently achieved the 100,000 tests a day for a day, Since then it’s been substantially less. Even worse, although the results are supposed to be returned in 48 hours, people are being told it can take up to 10 days because of the number of tests being done. That’s crazy. On that basis the government could claim to have tested the whole population in a couple of months, but the results could take years to come through.
And, of course, the test is a snapshot, a bit like the MOT, as it only gives an idea as to your condition at the time you were tested. If you then get infected two days later, it’s a worthless piece of paper.

I am fed up with seeing a procession of ‘Barbie-doll’ women in their immaculate homes telling me how to clean. I know how to clean; I just hate doing it. And I don’t get inspired by seeing other people’s efforts. Go away!

I am a fan of face masks. Not that I’ve actually worn one yet. But if the lockdown means we’ll see a lot more people on the streets and in shops, I’m happy to wear one for my own security. So, I’ve been watching a load of videos on how to make one. I can cut and sew, so it doesn’t matter to me how they’re made, but some seem unnecessarily complicated. I don’t mind buying them, but I think that unless you’ve got a good reason, buying medical-style ones isn’t good, as they’re needed by carers etc.
So I’m minded to make them. And since research has shown that a couple of layers of t-shirt material with a paper towel insert is a pretty good filter, that’s what I’ve been looking to make.
Martin has donated some of his snug-fit t-shirts (read – he’s outgrown them!) and last week I came across a video of a no-sew face mask which looked quite good. But I immediately saw a way to modify it so it fits anyone, needs no sewing at all (the no-sew ones I’ve seen need sewing or sticking anyway), is easy to put on and take off, is dead simple to launder, and, as a bonus, you can have a cool exterior by using the print on the t-shirt. As soon as I’ve cobbled a couple together I’ll have Martin modelling them on Facebook!
I might even make a video of how to do it.

Day 48 – Sunday 10th May 2020

Today is B-Day.

And ahead of Boris’ address to the nation tonight we have the Scottish Dwarf claiming ‘ I don’t know what stay alert means’. Well, there you go, Scotland. How did this woman become the voice of Scotland? She’s out to make a name for herself, though it’ll probably be one she wasn’t expecting. She would swear black was white if Boris said the opposite. Nothing Boris has done so far has met with her approval (not that he needs it).

I heard some discussion programme this morning saying Boris had ‘abandoned’ the Stay Home mantra. No he hasn’t. Didn’t they read the press releases?
On the same programme it was reported that the UK has the highest death toll in Europe. Apparently that’s incorrect as well.
This piece is too long to precis, but makes a lot of sense:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8303639/DAN-HODGES-dont-worst-Covid-19-death-rate-Europe-wicked-pretend-do.html

So, If, as expected, Boris loosens the lockdown, what will I do? Well, I’m going to follow HM The Queen on this: if she’s staying at home in Windsor for the foreseeable future, it’s obviously not safe out there yet. So I shall keep doing what I’ve been doing: shop a couple of times a week, and a short walk to Martin’s shop.

Deltapoll research for the Sun on Sunday found that 9 in 10 people do not want the lockdown to ease immediately – with 50 per cent happy to stay off work if they are getting paid or receiving government subsidies. Add to that Britain’s biggest unions playing politics with the virus by threatening to tell millions of workers to refuse to return unless the government puts in policies to ensure workplaces are safe and you have a perfect storm. If the government cuts the furlough support to 60%, as has been mooted, it’ll be interesting to see if those percentages change.

Here’s a thought: why can’t the police just collect names and addresses of people who are breaking the current lockdown, then have HMRC check if they are furloughed or on benefits, and stop the payments. Might make them think before they act.

There was a disturbing story a couple of days ago revealing that hospitals may have broken the law by sending patients with coronavirus back to care homes without telling their managers they had the virus. The Care Quality Commission (CQC) has been told that several hospitals returned people despite suspecting – or even knowing – they were infected.
These patients triggered outbreaks in homes, claiming the lives of other vulnerable residents.
It is now alleged that hospitals are discharging patients in the night and leaving them at the gates of their care home because there will not be senior staff there to resist it.
Kate Terroni, the watchdog’s chief inspector of adult social care, said: ‘We have heard of a few incidents where this has happened and it has resulted in infections spreading to other residents in the care home.

‘In cases where it looks like the information wasn’t disclosed by the hospital, we are looking at whether the hospital breached their regulations and whether we can take action. It’s an issue we take really seriously.’
The CQC enforces a series of regulations, enshrined in law, that health and adult social care services in England must comply with. Breaching some of these rules is a criminal offence and the watchdog can bring prosecutions.
The CQC is also investigating whether care home residents have died from non-coronavirus conditions due to a lack of visits from GPs.

Bad news from Germany:
New coronavirus infections are accelerating again in Germany just days after its leaders loosened social restrictions, raising concerns that the pandemic could once again slip out of control.
The Robert Koch Institute for disease control said in a daily bulletin the number of people each sick person now infects – known as the reproduction rate, or R – had risen to 1.1. When it goes above 1, it means the number of infections is growing.
Chancellor Angela Merkel, bowing to pressure from leaders of Germany’s 16 federal states to restart social life and revive the economy, announced on Wednesday measures that included more shop openings and a gradual return to school.

On a lighter note, there is a lovely story today that Colonel Tom has been offered a £1.5 million deal for his memoirs and has also been asked to write a children’s book, a lifestyle book and a cookery book inspired by World War II. Considering the old boy is 100, I hope he lives long enough to enjoy the cash!

The Daily Fail online in the UK is regularly peppered with stories from their Australian edition. Up till now they have all been from the previously mentioned Barbie-doll women and are either about cooking ‘hacks’ (a word beloved of the Daily Fail, and used totally inappropriately) or housekeeping ‘hacks’.
Today, for a change, there’s a ‘hack’ from an Aussie bloke: how to fold up reusable shopping bags so they take up less space in your pocket!!

****

Well, we’ve had the Ministerial Statement from Boris, and I watched it all as I like to get my information straight from the horse’s mouth, rather than the reworked interpreted versions in the media.
And Boris’ statement was exactly what I had expected. He has been consistent in the timeframe first mentioned in mid-March – 12 weeks under lockdown. He said that come the beginning of June, some things will be alleviated, depending on the figures being acceptable. He also made it clear that those who cannot work from home are allowed to go to work, which should clear up the confusion that some people had.
Shops like Martin’s will probably be allowed to re-open some time in late June. But there will be no early release for pubs, cafes etc which had been bandied about in the media.

*****

Following Boris’ statement, Facebook has been awash with people all claiming they’re confused. Maybe they weren’t paying attention, because I’m not confused.
Boris was clear: any plan is absolutely conditional on certain tests being met, and if changes result in the tests failing we’ll have to take a step back.

There were no promises about exactly when things can change, save for two specific things: those who cannot work from home are now encouraged to return to work, subject to them being able to travel safely, and work safely; and from Wednesday people can take more than one exercise period a day, and may travel to parks etc. This he called Step 1.

I think this is where the so-called ‘confusion’ has arisen: why can people go to work, but still not meet relatives and friends? I would have thought that obvious, but it’s because you’ve still got to maintain the 6ft social distancing rule, and how many people can put their hand on their heart and say they wouldn’t want to hug said relatives or friends when they meet them?

Martin said he was disappointed that there was no guideline on when his shop will be able to open. Well, there was: “In Step 2 – at the earliest by June 1 – after half term – we believe we may be in a position to begin the phased reopening of shops…”. So that’s at least three weeks before the shop can open.

Followed by: “And Step 3 – at the earliest by July – and subject to all these conditions and further scientific advice; if and only if the numbers support it, we will hope to re-open at least some of the hospitality industry and other public places, provided they are safe and enforce social distancing.
Throughout this period of the next two months we will be driven not by mere hope or economic necessity.
We are going to be driven by the science, the data and public health.
And I must stress again that all of this is conditional, it all depends on a series of big Ifs.
It depends on all of us – the entire country – to follow the advice, to observe social distancing, and to keep that R down.”

Adding those two steps together, and subject to the data being right, Martin’s shop will re-open between June 1st and July 1st.

One of my nephews – not known to be the most academic in the family – summarised the situation perfectly:

“So people wanted an idea of what’s going on, Boris gave you a rough idea.

Why a rough idea? Because that’s all he has, that’s all anybody would have.

So, it’s only going to be an actual plan if you stop being a ****!

How hard is that to understand?”

Day 49 – Monday 11th May 2020

The end of our seventh week of lockdown.

Yesterday was a day of two halves, weather-wise. Bright sunshine in the morning warmed the day up, so much so that Martin, who’d visited Doris dressed in jeans and a long-sleeved shirt was forced to change into shorts and a t-shirt to sit in the garden at lunchtime. We’d decided to have a bonfire, so I bagged up a load of prunings ready to burn later in the day.
But by 2pm the clouds had rolled in, the wind came up, and Martin was indoors with a sweater over his t-shirt. The brollies were lowered after one nearly took off (again!), and the bonfire idea was abandoned.
We are now promised several days of arctic air till the high pressure zone moves over a bit to allow warmer winds from the Azores (I’ve been there!) by the weekend.

At least it wasn’t as bad as New York – they had snow yesterday!

Tomorrow is my first day at Harvard. I’m taking a free online course in rhetoric. No idea what to expect, but it might improve my writing.

Today, France is relaxing its lockdown. Martin’s brother will be able to re-open his clothing store in Toulouse. Hair salons, florists and bookshops will open again. Bars, restaurants, theatres and cinemas will remain closed, and primary schools will take small numbers of pupils. Face masks will be compulsory as the public uses public transport again to get back to work.
Men, women and children of all ages will be allowed to move outside without having to present a form on demand. But people will only be able to go 60 miles from their home.
Meanwhile Emmanuel Macron’s opinion polls have fallen during the crisis. Around March 19, the French President enjoyed a 51% approval rating according to a poll conducted by Harris Interactive.
By the end of March (30-31), Mr Macron’s approval ratings had fallen to 39% with a disapproval rating of 57% according to a poll conducted by Elabe as the death toll rose.
Funny how people want to be cured but hate the doctor who gives them the bitter medicine to achieve the cure.

A piece in The Grauniad by Antonello Guerrera, UK correspondent for La Repubblica, says Italians are outraged by the UK Government’s failure to do better than the Italian Government in controlling the pandemic. What? They didn’t get it right so we should? Seems at least 30,000 Italians have left these shores and gone home – to what? a country with an excellent healthcare system unable to cope with the waves of victims from an unrestricted pandemic. Seems we should have had armed police on the streets, roadblocks, and criminal charges with draconian fines for rulebreakers. Hold up. None of those actually stopped the pandemic in Italy. The ‘stay at home’ rule was the key, but I guess if the Italians can’t be trusted to do what they’re told unless it’s enforced with guns and courts…

Sharing an edited photo online could increase the risk of developing an eating disorder, research has found, by increasing worries about weight and body image.
Florida State University’s psychology department researchers found that sharing photos – edited or not – increased anxiety and added to urges to eat less or exercise more, when compared to not posting images at all.
At this point I must declare I edited all my wrinkles out of the photo I supplied for my bus pass!

****

I don’t know if it’s the lack of cars on the road or the lack of people around, or just that I’m more observant than usual, but there suddenly seems to be a greater variety of birds around at the moment.
Last week Martin & I saw a pair of jays in Chalkwell Park, and I haven’t seen those for years. This morning, standing at the back door having a ciggie I’ve seen robins, sparrows, blue tits, great tits, a blackbird, and a pair of chaffinches all flying round the garden. Maybe the wind is stirring them up.

We always see magpies, crows, collared doves and wood pigeons, though I haven’t seen any starlings nor greenfinches around recently. Maybe I should make a bird table in the garden.

****

I think I must be particularly dumb at the moment. I have commented several times on how union leaders and other people are ‘demanding’ the government ‘do something’ about whatever irked them at the time.

So I’ve been scanning today’s online Daily Fail, and see even more people taking a pop at Boris after last night’s broadcast. The thing that goes through my head is: ‘Could you do any better?’. But I have suddenly twigged what’s going on.

Today there are calls for the government to ‘clarify’ or ‘do something’ about the idea people can return to work, can use public transport if necessary, need to ‘stay alert’, can meet one or two friends and family at a 6ft distance, etc. even though the basic plan divulged yesterday was pretty clear. What they really want (and it’s due today) is a full set of rules and regulations drawn up by the government so they can a) blame the government if it doesn’t work; and b) have something else to nit-pick through.

The Scottish Dwarf gives me the ache – her voice and mannerisms do not inspire confidence, and having heard the Welsh First Minister today he’s no better. But both think they know better and are refusing to follow the Boris plan. That’s their choice, but surely it’s the choice of the Scots and Welsh if they follow their respective First Ministers or the UK’s Prime Minister?

And as for the unions and Labour Party members – they’re up to their old tricks of trying to make a name for themselves by slagging off the government.

Not one of them has come up with any alternative proposals, nor are they actively researching. They remind me of the Dad character in Harry Enfield’s sketches back in the 80s (I think): ‘You don’t want to do it like that’ was his stock response to anything and everything.

Day 50 – Tuesday 12th May 2020

“Some days are diamonds, some days are stone” (John Denver)

A phone call at 5:30am this morning sent Martin racing over to his mother’s apartment.
The call was from Careline, who monitor all the old ducks in the sheltered accommodation, because Doris had triggered the alarm but didn’t seem to be able to talk to them.
Doris had mentioned a couple of times in the past week that she’d felt breathless when she woke up, but sitting up seemed to relieve the feeling, Certainly there was no evidence of it when Martin was there.
Under normal circumstances he’d have made an appointment at her GP’s to get her checked out, but these are not normal times, and doctors are not seeing patients except in an emergency.
So to find her struggling to breathe this morning was very distressing, and Martin promptly called for an ambulance. The medics were excellent, and decided she needed to go to hospital. Unfortunately, under the current rules, she had to go alone as ambulances can’t carry relatives at the moment.
A couple of hours later an A & E doctor called Martin to say Doris has pneumonia and was being treated with antibiotics and oxygen therapy via a face mask. Because she presented with pneumonia, even though she has no other symptoms e.g. raised temperature, cough etc., they have taken swabs to test for Covid-19.
I can’t believe she’s caught the virus – she’s not been anywhere for nearly 8 weeks, having only left the apartment a couple of times to go down to the garden with Martin, and he’s kept her away from anyone there.
Martin hasn’t had any symptoms, and as far as I’m aware, no-one in the complex has been diagnosed with Covid-19 either.
So I suspect she’s probably got what’s called ‘walking’ pneumonia, and given her age it needs antibiotics.
We are now waiting to see which ward she’ll be in as they are admitting her for a few days – at least till the Covid-19 test result arrives (which will take 3-5 days apparently).
Also under the rules, she can’t have visitors, and with her poor eyesight and hearing, it’s going to be a bit stressful for both her and Martin.

Update: Doris is now in Princess Anne ward at the hospital. Pretty good going, so well done NHS!

Day 51 – Wednesday 13th May 2020

Last week Doris was complaining that she was fed up being stuck in her apartment and not able to go out and meet people.
Well now she’s had a free trip in an ambulance, and met a load of new friends in the ward at the hospital.
And today she’s much better and is off the oxygen and responding to the antibiotics. Apparently just because she’s had a test for Covid-19 doesn’t mean she can’t be discharged till the results come back, so my guess is she’ll be back home on Friday.

From the ‘You Couldn’t Make It Up’ files:
The CPS have charged a man with being ‘outside of the place where you were living, namely of no fixed address, in breach of coronavirus restrictions’. He was arrested at Liverpool Street Station, and at first claimed he lived in Stratford, before stating he was homeless.
Despite the judge at Westminster magistrates court questioning the charge, saying ‘Is it not a defence that the regulation doesn’t apply to a person who is homeless? If he is homeless then the charge “that he left the place he was living, namely of no fixed address” doesn’t make sense to me’, the prosecutor told the court they planned to proceed with the charge to trial.
A similar charge against a homeless man for breaching coronavirus restrictions was withdrawn in Manchester last month after the defence said the legislation does not apply to the homeless.
And there, ladies and gentlemen, you see your tax dollars at work.

“University of Edinburgh researchers said eight out of 10 coronavirus deaths in Scotland could have been prevented if the measures were brought in on March 9 instead of March 23.”
Now correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the Scottish Dwarf on TV every day saying ‘Scotland will do it my way’? So it begs the question, since she thinks she knows best, why didn’t she lock Scotland down sooner? The Scottish Government’s scientific advisers would have known that a major outbreak was imminent in February, apparently. Sadly, there is no comment from the First Minister in that story, but as she’s so fond of taking a pop at Boris for making bad decisions, I think someone should ask her.

From the ‘I’ve Read It But I Still Don’t Believe It’ files:
Seven weeks ago, when Boris summarily closed UK PLC for business, there was uproar. Both trades unions and employers representatives predicted mass unemployment, bankruptcies, homelessness and a host of other calamities, and claimed it couldn’t be done.
The government’s response was pretty fair, in my opinion. They addressed the most pressing need – money – by offering grants, cheap loans, and the ability to furlough staff with the taxpayer coughing up 80% of the wages bill. Yes, it was a broad brush, and some people didn’t qualify, but it fixed a major problem for probably 90% of people and businesses. Since then, there have been refinements to include more of the missing 10%. As a quick fix for a very pressing need, I think it worked.
I don’t remember the trades unions rejecting that support.

But my, how things have changed now the government wants to re-open for business. There’s a line round the block of union leaders saying it can’t be done without their approval, without their union-appointed inspectors checking if a pencil is to shared or if the door handles have been sanitised, without a million-point checklist for every worker to use to decide if it’s safe to work:

“Employees legally do not have to return to their workplace if they feel their company has not done enough to keep them safe from coronavirus, union leaders have said. The Trades Union Congress said existing laws already protect employees in Britain who have a legal right to refuse to work if the risks are ‘serious and imminent’. And the GMB union has called for firms to carry out a ‘full risk assessment agreed with each worker’ and the supply of the necessary private protective equipment. Union-appointed health and safety inspectors will check if offices, factories, shops and other workplaces have been redesigned to ensure social distancing or check that shifts are staggered and that staff are not sharing equipment such as pens.”

Unions have said those inspections will take at least two weeks.

And now it appears that if the hastily-concocted documents that allowed people to be furloughed (read: long holiday at the taxpayers expense, with no travel costs etc.) are missing a crucial line that states when the furlough can be rescinded, people can stay off work for as long as they like, on furlough pay, and their employer will have to take them to court to either force them back or sack them.
There is an op-ed piece by Ian Austin which makes interesting reading:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8313685/Workers-sabotaged-union-dinosaur-writes-former-Labour-MP-IAN-AUSTIN.html

And the school situation is no better: The National Education Union (NEU) warned its members not to ‘engage’ with the plans to re-open schools, unveiled yesterday, while the head of the National Association of Head Teachers (NAHT) said the plans were ‘irresponsible’ because it would be impossible to adhere to social distancing.
Shadow Chancellor Ms Annaliese Dodds (have you seen her?) was asked if she would send her child back, replying: ‘I would be more than happy to send my own child to school if I knew that by doing so I would not be potentially harming others. That’s the critical issue for me. And we don’t have that evidence, I feel, currently. If government was able to provide that, particularly to publish the scientific information underlying its decisions, we could be in a different situation.’
Well, as just about every piece of scientific evidence is published online, why doesn’t she do a bit of research herself and actually explain what, if anything, she wants the government to do that they aren’t proposing already so she can send Freddie back to school.
A poll conducted by the national Education Union yesterday showed 85% of teachers are opposed to the Prime Minister’s plans to re-open schools. Well, they would, wouldn’t they, as they sit at home on furloughed pay, thanks very much.

Day 52 – Thursday 14th May 2020

Update on Doris:
She’s still responding well to the oxygen and antibiotics. She is being treated as if she has Covid-19, even though the test results haven’t come back yet, as that’s the safest way to treat her. This morning she was out of bed and sitting in a day chair, which is a marked improvement in 48hrs. It seems, given her age, that they would like to keep her in hospital for another day or so to be sure the pneumonia is dealt with.

Momentum is a British political organisation which has been described as a grassroots left-wing movement supportive of the Labour Party. I came across a video they had created comparing how New Zealand is dealing with Covid-19 compared to the UK, and in it the UK appears totally incompetent.
Not surprising, given Momentum’s affiliation.
But here’s the thing – New Zealand’s total population (4.98m) is only 70% the size of London’s population (7.07m), and only 7.5% the size of the whole of the UK’s population (66.43m). Even more important, the density of people in New Zealand is just 18.3 people per square kilometre compared with the UK’s density of 274 people per square kilometre.
New Zealand has only 2 long-distance international airports, the UK has 25.
New Zealand has 14 sea ports of first arrival, the UK has about 120, plus the Channel Tunnel.
While I admire the way the Prime Minister of New Zealand has managed to almost eradicate Covid-19 from her shores, mostly by using track & trace, it is disingenuous to suggest that Boris could have achieved the same results in the same time frame given he was dealing with a vastly different set of circumstances. I’m not defending him and his government as such, as I think they have made some errors (mostly based on the assumptions that the UK population wasn’t as thick as it appears it is, and that people had a level of common sense they seem to lack) but I don’t see how Boris could have done much better.

A post from a friend of mine:

“Professor Chris Whitty is a Fellow of the Royal College of Physicians.
He is a Fellow of the Faculty of Public Health.
He is a Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences.
He is Chief Scientific Advisor at the Department of Health and Social Care.
He is head of the National Institute for Health Research.
He is a practicing NHS Consultant at University College London Hospitals.
He is a practicing NHS Consultant at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases.
He is a Professor of Physic at Gresham College.
He is also Chief Medical Officer for England and the Chief Medical Advisor to the Government.
Sir Patric Vallance is a Bachelor of Science, a Bachelor of Medicine, and a Bachelor of Surgery. He has spent decades in medical research, as well as teaching at several Medical School.
He has been Registrar of the Academy of Medical Sciences.
He is a Fellow of the Royal College of Physicians.
He is a Fellow of the Royal Society.
He is a Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences.
He is also Chief Scientific Officer to the Government.
How appalling that these under qualified chancers have been giving lockdown release advice to the Government, without consulting “experts” such as Keir Starmer, Nicola Sturgeon, Piers Morgan, Laura Kunesberk and ‘Karen’ on Facebook”

I’d add trades union leaders and Annaliese Dodds to that list at the bottom!

Good news from Southend Council: there were no new Covid-19 deaths on the borough in the 24hrs up to 6pm last night. However, I don’t know exactly where they get their information from.

“How all those coffees help to keep the weight off: Women who get a caffeine fix two or three times a day have less body fat than those who drink none” said the Daily Fail headline. I drink nothing but coffee. I have at least 5-6 cups a day, sometimes more. I’m at least 2 stone overweight, maybe more. So I respectfully disagree with the researchers that came up with this tripe.

The Swiss pharmaceutical company. Roche, has developed a test for Covid-19 antibodies, and the UK Government is keen to roll it out across the country. The test, which can’t be administered at home, gives a result in 18 minutes, apparently. This is good news, as the only other test available at the moment can only tell you if you actually have the virus at the time of testing, not whether you had it in the past.
Obviously, the first group to be tested will be frontline staff and key workers, as it should be.
I guess eventually everyone in the UK should be tested, but how long that will take depends on how many places are made available for testing. It’d make sense to use GP surgeries and dentist practices as they already have access to NHS records. But I’ll bet a pound to a penny that yet another company will heave up and bid for the job, taking on unqualified staff on minimum wage to perform the task. You just know someone’s going to be making money out of it somehow.

And what happens when you get a result – positive or negative? A positive result doesn’t mean you can’t catch the virus again, just that you have a much better chance of a mild attack. So will employers be screening all their employees and only allowing the ‘positive’ ones to come back to work? That way they could probably save shed-loads of cash not providing PPE and plastic screens. Will a ‘positive’ mean you can travel abroad (there are already talks of an ‘immunity passport’)?
And if you test ‘negative’ will you be consigned to self-isolation until a vaccine is found? Maybe shops will discriminate on the basis of the test. Will we all have to have an ID card stating our test results?

Here’s a list of Mythbusters from the World Health Organisation. How people came up with some of these ideas I dread to think:

There are currently no drugs licensed for the treatment or prevention of COVID-19.

Adding pepper to your soup or other meals does not prevent or cure COVID-19.

COVID-19 is not transmitted through houseflies.

Spraying and introducing bleach or another disinfectant into your body will not protect you against COVID-19 and can be dangerous.

Drinking methanol, ethanol or bleach does not prevent or cure COVID-19 and can be extremely dangerous.

5G mobile networks do not spread COVID-19.

Exposing yourself to the sun or to temperatures higher than 25C degrees does not prevent the coronavirus disease (COVID-19).

You can recover from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Catching the new coronavirus does not mean you will have it for life.

Being able to hold your breath for 10 seconds or more without coughing or feeling discomfort does not mean you are free from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) or any other lung disease.

Drinking alcohol does not protect you against COVID-19 and can be dangerous.

The new coronavirus cannot be transmitted through mosquito bites.

Hand dryers, a hot bath, and cold weather or snow are not effective in killing the new coronavirus.

Ultra-violet (UV) lamps should not be used to disinfect hands or other areas of your skin.

Thermal scanners cannot detect COVID-19.

Vaccines against pneumonia do not protect you against the new coronavirus.

There is no evidence that regularly rinsing the nose with saline or eating garlic has protected people from infection with the new coronavirus.

Antibiotics do not work against viruses, only bacteria.

To date, there is no specific medicine recommended to prevent or treat the new coronavirus.

You heard it here first: Stock up on mouthwash while you can, cos it’s going to be in very short supply by the weekend. How do I know? Because researchers from Cardiff University think it might have ingredients that might kill Covid-19, but no-one’s checked it out yet.

Professor Alan Penn, a member of SAGE, the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, has reassured that those who flock to the parks that the risk of catching the virus outside is lower.
He said: ‘The science suggests that being outside in sunlight, with good ventilation, are both highly protective against transmission of the virus.’
Other scientists say they ‘totally agree’ with Professor Penn and advocate spending more time outdoors, where the virus is less likely to survive.
People are more likely to catch the infection in enclosed spaces with other people, where ventilation is poor and strangers touch the same surfaces regularly.
At last! Someone with credentials talking sense.

Just how much is it costing to turn London into Amsterdam? I’m sure that while the weather is nice all the newly-created cycle lanes will be used, but wait till the weather turns in Autumn. You won’t be able to get into or out of London because it’ll be gridlocked with cars who only have half the road space they used to have.

*****
Update from Southend Council: a second day with no new deaths from Covid-19. Our little corner of England is looking good, despite the scofflaws down at the seafront.

Day 53 – Friday 15th May 2020

.And we start the day with the Daily Fail’s headline “ LONDON ‘VIRUS-FREE BY JUNE’”.
OK, so does that mean those who live in London will be able to return to some sort of normal? Because the figures quoted are from during the lockdown, when almost no-one was travelling into or out of London. Now that people are encouraged to go to work, if they can’t work at home, a huge swathe of workers who commute from the suburbs will be travelling into London every day. We already saw long tailbacks on the roads into London on Wednesday and Thursday, because Boris wants people to walk, cycle, or use their own cars rather than public transport, and as most of the working population are 30 miles or more outside the city the only practical solution is to drive.
It’ll be interesting to see how the R factor changes in the indigenous population, and in the surrounding suburbs after a couple of weeks commuting.

The video doing the rounds of 300 Amish men moving a huge barn should be held up as a perfect example of how we all should be behaving in these times.

Isn’t it amazing that the BBC Panorama programme struggled to find NHS workers to appear on their programme called ‘Has The Government Failed The NHS?’ unless they were card-carrying Labour supporters. Does that mean that Conservative-voting NHS workers were a) not willing to appear; b) not wanted; c) non-existent; or d) didn’t fit the BBC’s agenda for the programme. Very odd.

I was going to comment on the Tik-Tok video which claims you have to milk a cucumber before you eat it, but the idea is just so bloody stupid that I am lost for words.

I have read the Daily Fail for today.

So here’s a rather long read I saw on Facebook. I don’t know the guy who posted it, nor the original authors, but it made sense to me. It is US-orientated, but it is still relevant.

Make a cup of coffee and read on…

“Facebook post by Daniel Pinchbeck:

These two posts just popped up in my feed, and I thought I would share them together. The first one is a thorough refutation of Q or Qanon. The second one looks at why people have such a tendency to believe conspiracies like Qanon or PizzaGate or that Bill Gates is a shapeshifting alien reptile who wants to reduce the world’s population and control the ones who are left via implanted microchips.

Now, I do agree that we are heading toward extremely dystopian future scenarios and that there are evil, demented, and sociopathic people running some of our largest financial, political, and military institutions. I also think there are conspiracies that need to be understood and villains that need to be identified. However, I believe that many of the conspiracies that are now popular are PsyOps designed to keep people from using their critical thinking skills properly so they can understand what is happening and then work together to build a unified movement to change the system fundamentally.

Right now, we need disciplined, critical thinking. To think critically, we must constantly strive to separate what we think, what we actually know, what we want to believe, and what we feel.

We are all going to fail at this at times – I know that I do. But one can make a discipline of coming back to one’s center and recalling how one arrived at certain ideas or beliefs, and then actually dismissing those beliefs that lack a basis in coherent and rational inquiry. This may sound paradoxical coming from someone who has offered theories and hypotheses in many esoteric areas from indigenous prophecies (2012: The Return of Quetzalcoatl) to alien abductions (The Occult Control System). But I try hard in my work to make a distinction between knowledge based in direct experience, and theories I develop that are always provisional and open to change.

Here are the two posts I found useful:

QANON REFUTATION

“Background. If you’re not aware, you can google Q-anon for the basics. The basic thesis is that the government for decades has been secretly controlled by a cabal of powerful elites entrenched within government and Hollywood. They are the ones really calling the shots and they are all engaged in the most abominable imaginable practices, satanic ritual killings of children, organized pedophilia, and the dissecting of tortured children to extract the makings of a drug Adrenochrome, that these evil people are addicted to. Hillary Clinton, Obama, the previous Bush are all alleged to be deep in this. Q claims to represent a team of “White hats” good guys within the government that were prepared to violently overthrow this cabal but graciously recruited Donald Trump to run for president to drain the swamp of all those evil forces in power and restore righteousness to government.

Most reports about Q-anon simply regard it as ridiculous. No prominent politicians including Trump, nor those aligning themselves with him, publicly affirm it. Still, I understand its attraction to some and will wade in further than those media reports that dismiss it as fringe because I see it spreading among those who I care about.

Let me first say that I’ve had very close friends and lovers who were victims of childhood sexual abuse and know it’s way too common and devastating. The power of its horror makes stopping it one of the most compelling emotional stories. That said, it’s something vastly happening within families, or by priests or others with access to children and often those abuses have been covered up by such organizations as the Catholic Church, Boy scouts, etc.

That said, Q alleges huge numbers of children have been abducted and ritually sacrificed, or sexually abused by large groups of prominent politicians (who are hardly out of public eye and often accompanied by secret service etc).

There has to be large numbers involved for one to make saving those children the number one priority for political support, even for those whose values are the opposite of Trump. I’ve repeatedly been offered the statistic of 800,000 children a year are noted missing in the United States alone. They don’t know, or fail to mention, that over 99% of missing children are returned home alive. Most missing are runaways or abducted by a spouse without proper custody rights.
So there’s very little credible evidence that this satanic pedophile ring exists and if you ask for it, you get misdirected to evidence that satanism exists or pedophilia exists. Even under Trump, there’s never been a bust of elite pedophiles highly influential in government (except for his friend Epstein which I’ll cover later) and certainly none related to Satanism or sacrifice. There’s no real victim list nor testimony of survivors except a few very questionable ones. There’s far more testimonies available from those claiming they were abducted and probed by aliens.

Lately the claim is also that tortured children are dissected to make the drug Adrenochrome, which these elites crave. This beggers belief really because Adrenochrome is simply oxidized (aged) Adrenaline. Adrenaline doesn’t need to be harvested from kids brains by highly trained complicit professionals, it’s cheap at less than $300 for 30 milliliters. Vastly more than could be harvested from a kid. The Trump administration obviously cares nothing for this issue (because it’s not real) as Adrenochrome is unscheduled, way more legal than weed. There’s very few reports of people who have taken it, the existing reports don’t show any allure. There’s been zero busts for adrenochrome in the Trump years. Some Q folks maintain that the “White hats” are actually such ninjas that they were able to tap into the adrenochrome supply and taint it with Covid-19 thus infecting alleged Satanist pedophiles Tom Hanks and his wife.

Doesn’t it seem strange that these ninjas should be so tapped into the supply of drugs allegedly harvested from the sacrificed brains of tortured children and yet they haven’t busted anyone? No adrenochrome seizures or attempts to even make possession a crime?

The history of Q is the history of many, many major predictions failed. Preachers predicting the end times have as accurate a record, and excuses for why they didn’t happen as predicted. Q maintained that Trump and Robert Mueller were secretly collaborating behind the scenes to stage a major takedown of the elite deep state. It never seemed true (face it) and the Mueller report came and went without any takedown. Note that tens of millions were spent trying to lock up Hillary Clinton for her private email server, for the Whitewater real estate dealings, Benghazi second-guessing and nowhere in any of Trump inspired investigations did any hint of pedophilia or satanism arise, nor did Trump even suggest it as an issue, even while being bold enough to call for her imprisonment for minor stuff.

The latest Q buzz was created by Covid-19 when the Q folks maintained one of two narratives, one that the virus was a US military operation, not really a virus, to get people inside worldwide while all the elite pedophiles were rounded up and arrested. When that become obviously false, I started to hear it was actually the cabal that started the virus but the white hats turned the tables by using the situation to activate the takedown of the evil Satanists. We see absolutely no evidence of this even as Trump agitates to reopen the economy and get back to normal.

Adding to the incredulity, Trump himself brought in his own handpicked heads to the very agencies that comprise the deep state, the CIA, FBI, etc. Some of his appointments have come and gone, some distancing themselves from Trump and none ever mentioning the deep state conspiracy.

Let’s face it. Q alleged the white hats were going to take down the powerful deep state 3 years ago. The power of surprise or need for Trump to remain mum have long past. If there were a powerful deep state at war with Trump and Q, that battle would have been won or lost years ago. The secret was public, if it were real, that powerful deep state would have either been defeated in those times or would have found out and eliminated Q and the white hats long before now.

The reason Q still exists despite being some kind of open secret is that Q is itself a disinformation operation aimed at creating a movement that would support Trump by using the most compelling possible narrative, those poor children, and protect Trump from the forces in government most likely to object to his misrule and corruption (long term government professionals and liberal Hollywood media folks).

Add to this, there has NEVER been a president more obviously prone to pedophilia in this actions and remarks. The Q narrative absolves Trump of his great vulnerability there.

Let’s dig into that a bit more. Some credit the arrest of Epstein (the poster child of organized pedophilia) to Trump. The fact is that Epstein was only arrested after a three-part Miami Herald investigation revealed what a light sentence Epstein was handed suspiciously by the prosecutor of the case, Alex Acosta, whom Trump had promoted to his Labor Secretary. That created a furor and New York went after Epstein for his crimes in that state. At the time, Trump defended Acosta, who later had to resign from the stigma of letting Epstein off the hook.

So back to Trump, young women and Epstein.
“In 2002, about three years before investigators opened their first probe into Epstein, Trump told New York Magazine he had known Epstein for 15 years. Trump called Epstein a “terrific guy” and said, “He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life.”

I mean, come on. No other politician has sexualized his own daughter and other children publicly as Trump has. He’s raved about her body and remarked about how he’d date her if she weren’t his daughter. Trump is on tape remarking to the mother of a 10 year old girl in a mall joking that he’d be dating the kid in 10 years. Ivanka, sitting with Trump on the Howard Stern show joked about Trump being a sexual predator.

In addition, it’s come to the extent of a women making sworn affidavits in court that Trump raped her as a 13 year old in connection with Epstein. Somehow the lawsuit went away but we do know Trump has a record of using money and/or threats to make allegations go away, as he paid off Stormy Daniels and another playboy model to silence their claims of sex with Trump, all the while he was married.

You’ve all heard the tape where he brags about grabbing women by the pussy.

And this is the guy whom we are supposed to believe is determined to save us from the pedophiles? Not much action on that front except for counting smuggling migrants from Mexico as “Human trafficking” and cracking down on that. Reports of increased arrests for trafficking are mostly stuff like that, or prostitution, no major elite figures.

Qanon is using the propaganda technique popularized by Karl Rove and used by some of the GOP, since then: accuse your opponent of what you are most vulnerable to yourself.

But to simplify things a bit, even if you ignore the fact that Trump’s mouth has been famously uncensored for years, and made plenty of fantastic claims, one has to really stretch to imagine him acknowledging the Q narrative, allegedly the main event he became president for.

We’ve already established that there no evidence of mass victims of some alleged pedophile ring, what about their influence on government? Trump had control of the House and Senate and the agencies of government for his first two years and still controls the Senate. What does this “Freed from the dictates of the deep state” government look like?

It looks like climate change denial, mass reversal of environmental protections and pollution restrictions, giveways of trillions to the rich (elites!) in tax cuts and deregulation. The abandonment of sexual harassment and discrimination laws. Reversal of civil rights progress and antipathy toward gay and LGBT protections. It’s really, really hard to see much that Trump stands for that any of my friends would stand up for.
Which is why a dishonest, made-up narrative has been concocted by experts at psychology and disinformation to sell via right wing fringe channels to drum up unconditional support for Trump.

Personally, I’ve been conned plenty. I’ve fallen for stuff more than once. Some people have perfected selling you stuff that’s bogus.

“Where we go one, We go all” (WWG1WGA) is a Q slogan, that creates a solidarity within a group. Q’s method of putting out clues for people to solve to unlock the conspiracy is a way of getting people to buy into the narrative, as if they have discovered the woke secrets.

Recently a high production documentary “Out of the Shadows” has made the rounds, using the technique of stating some obvious truths and then, while our heads are nodding, insinuating and alleging stuff it has no evidence of. For instance the documentary claimed the music boom of the late 60’s/early 70’s in Laurel Canyon in LA (Frank Zappa, Mamas & Papas, Joni Mitchell, The Byrds, Crosby, Stills and Nash, James Taylor, Carole King, Jackson Browne, etc.) was the outcome of a CIA operation to push Satanism into the culture to destroy America. Somehow I think I’ve heard other music more evocative of Satan they might have missed.

You have to know better than to stake the future of humanity on a obviously fake story covering for a sick president who cares only for himself. Wake up from being so woke.”

2. WHY IS CONSPIRATORIAL THINKING SO POPULAR?

“Why people believe crazy things”:

Over the past two months, I have been receiving a steady stream of crazy conspiracy-laden emails—far more than usual. These range from your typical anti-vaccine nonsense to “5G data networks causes coronavirus” to the idea that the entire pandemic (or, excuse me, “plandemic”) is a well-coordinated hoax by some shadowy international cabal looking to… I don’t know, make lots of money, or something.

Many other readers have emailed me over the past month saying that they are alarmed at how many of their otherwise smart, well-adjusted friends and family have gone looney tunes recently and bought into this nonsense. They have asked me what it is about these theories that is so appealing. Why do smart people put their brain on hold while they check the other line for a few months?

Fortunately, I, too, was once 16 years old and believed every theory I read on the internet. So I kind of feel I understand where these people are coming from. As with most human behavior, conspiracy theorizing doesn’t appeal to us on an intellectual level, it appeals to us on an emotional level. And once you understand that, it all starts making a lot more sense.

Conspiracy theories originate from:

a) A Desperate Need for Certainty – Human minds are meaning machines. When something good happens to us, we demand to know why. When something bad happens to us, we also demand to know why. The better or worse the thing that happened, the more powerful the instinct to deduce the reason and cause.

The problem is that many of the most impactful events in human history can happen for no apparent reason. This drives the human mind bananas. The idea that millions of lives can end or be changed forever (and it was not consciously decided or controlled by some outside force) is just inconceivable to our brains on some level. We don’t like randomness because randomness means uncertainty and uncertainty means we’re not safe.

Therefore, we all have an extremely strong emotional urge to make sense of calamities in a way that gives someone or something conscious control of that event. The easiest way to do this is to find the people or groups who are most likely to benefit from said calamity. Generally, in crises, uber-wealthy people and governments benefit the most. They also have the most power to begin with. Ergo, most people’s minds have a strong gravitational pull towards believing that uber-wealthy people and governments must therefore be orchestrating the calamity in some way.

But the fact is that even the most competent individuals and governments are horribly inefficient and inept in most cases. Remember the first maxim of Negative Self Help — humans suck. You could add an addendum to that by saying, “Humans suck; human organizations suck even more.” I don’t care if you’re the CIA, the NRA, the Gates Foundation or the Hare Krishnas — human organizations are generally slow, wasteful, incompetent, and woefully unaware of the consequences of their actions. The idea that thousands of people could coordinate perfectly—in secret!—to accomplish some nefarious goal is insane, at least to anyone who has actually dealt with other humans in a significant capacity.

b) Feelings of Moral and Intellectual Superiority – When you believe something most other people don’t, you experience a sense of superiority and righteousness. You feel pity and outrage at the uninformed masses—outrage that you must become a great martyr to help save humanity from its blindness.

Ah, how dramatic!

If the craving for certainty attracts one to a conspiracy theory, the false sense of moral superiority cements it. Not only do you get to know why the virus spread, but you get to feel sorry for the confused masses. You get to be angry that more people don’t “open their eyes” or “wake up.” You get to argue really, really intensely on social media, or with some dickhead with a newsletter, that nooooo, if only you understood.

Basically, people hold onto conspiracy theories for the same reason they root for the underdog in sports, or they pick the most obscure film or band to be their favorite music, or they try to join secret clubs—the exclusivity grants them a feeling of importance.

The tragedy of all of this is that attacking these people for their beliefs makes them more determined. “Of course you’d attack me! The truth is too much for you to handle!” And on and on the false sense of importance goes.

c) Lack of Critical Thinking – I’ve always found it funny that governments can hardly pay for a toilet without it leaking to the press in some way, yet we’re supposed to believe that tens of thousands of people coordinated across the planet and not a single person broke the silence?

Or, how about the purported motive of most conspiracy theories is some form of “Rich guy wants to be even richer!”

Well, what the fuck? Why doesn’t he just invest in Amazon. I mean, given how long it would take to plan and execute a pandemic, that’s probably just as lucrative and you don’t have to kill millions of people!

Generally, I’ve found that conspiracy theorists are unable to think two or three moves ahead on the chess board. They fail to detect the difference between evidence and conjecture, what is fact and what is opinion. I’ve also noticed they’re just bad at math. For instance, they look at a situation with vaccines where you might have 37,000 deaths and 200 million lives saved, and because 37,000 is a really big number, they just assume it’s bad… without considering the fact that it’s 0.0018% of the number of lives saved.

But most importantly, conspiracy theorists just strike me as intensely lonely. To be able to believe such outlandish things about human nature, to assume that vast organizations can coordinate in such ways, and to see that amount of raw evil in the world… this seems only possible for someone who doesn’t get out nearly enough. Go talk to a couple of government officials and spend a few months in a corporate hierarchy. You will quickly see that they could hardly organize a children’s parade, much less build network towers that beam viruses into people around the globe simultaneously.

So, what do you do with a person who believes in a conspiracy theory? I think the best thing you can do is simply state facts while trying to relate to them on an emotional level. You can challenge their claims. But do it patiently, respectfully. Be kind. They will lash out emotionally—because, after all, conspiracy theories are about emotions, not logic—and they might call you names, say you’re evil, feel sorry for you, etc., etc.

But you’re not going to change their minds in one go. No, instead you must pepper them with information and perspective, and then just let it all take hold in the soil of their minds, like seeds of rationality.

And eventually, when these people do come out and start experiencing the world in all of its complexity and ambiguity, those seeds will sprout. And they will (hopefully) realize that, yes, they were being a dumbfuck.

Mark Manson”

*****

And the highlight of the day: Doris was discharged from hospital at about 5pm; and with a negative Covid-19 test! Exactly as I had expected because, to be honest, if she’d tested positive there’d have been no hope for any of us, as no-one could have been more isolated for the past 8 weeks!

*****

The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, is a disgrace and should be sacked immediately. After blackmailing the government for a huge bail-out for TFL (Transport For London) on economic grounds (although he claimed the reduced rolling stock was due to lack of personnel because of sickness), and after constantly bleating about not being able to control social distancing, what does he do? Just as Boris encourages people to use their own vehicles to go to work and stay off public transport he ups the Congestion Charge, and increases its scope to later in the day and at weekends. That’s really going to help get the city back to work, I don’t think. And as the number of cars on the roads is still greatly reduced it’s now manifestly obvious that the Congestion Charge has nothing to do with congestion and is simply a tax on motorists.
Of course, it doesn’t affect him at all – he’s driven around in a taxpayer-funded car by a tax-payer funded chauffeur, and is probably exempt from the charge, if London works anything like our local council where councillors get a ‘free parking anywhere you like’ pass.

And just to really help things along, Tube drivers are now being advised by their union that they don’t have to return to work if they feel they are at risk of serious danger. Now I don’t travel on the Tube ever, but the last time I did I’m fairly sure the driver was in a small closed-off section at the front of the train and never interacted with the passengers. So how can they claim to be in serious danger?

Vivianne Westwood, a so-called fashion designer, is 79 and should stop dressing like something out of a panto. She just looks ridiculous.

Day 54 – Saturday 16th May 2020

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Day 55 – Sunday 17th May 2020

The last time I spent 55 days away from family and friends I was on a half-world cruise circumnavigating the Atlantic Ocean. How times have changed!

In a previous life I was married to a journalist. One day I asked him what made something ‘news’ and he said ‘news is the unusual’ e.g. ’Dog Bites Man’ isn’t news; ‘Man Bites Dog’ is.

Having spent the best part of 8 weeks commenting on the ‘news’, it now appears that there’s nothing new about any of it.

So rather than commenting on particular news stories (unless they fall into the ‘You Couldn’t Make It Up’ category) I’ve been thinking about the bigger pictures.

Firstly, why is so much time and effort being put into blaming someone for this pandemic? I agree that ultimately we need a post-mortem to determine what happened when and why, but right now it seems childish to have all this finger-pointing, as it doesn’t serve any cause except to let some politicians wipe their hands and say ‘It wasn’t my fault’.
All our resources should be looking for a treatment / cure / vaccine.

Secondly, in the UK at least, we need a forensic analysis of the state of care homes / nursing homes / EMI homes to see who’s responsible for what, who’s paying for what, and who benefits. The constant complaining that these homes have been abandoned by the government doesn’t seem to hold water, given that a large proportion are privately run businesses who charge shed-loads of cash to look after the people others don’t want care for (or can’t, because they need specialist care). While the government oversees the standard of care provided, it is not up to them to decide how the fees paid are allocated by the care home owners.
Maybe it should be. Maybe there should be a requirement regarding PPE supplies being available at all times and at an adequate level. But I don’t see it’s the government’s responsibility to provide equipment if the care home owners don’t want to do it themselves.
I have seen stories of fee-payers being sent bills with extra charges for PPE provision added on. Sorry, but if you’re paying hundreds of pounds a week to keep a relative in one of these places, basic equipment should be part of the deal. But it seems the owners are trying to hang on to as much of their profits as possible. And let’s face it, there’s at least one industry that won’t be going to the wall in these times. Anyone seen any care home staff furloughed? Thought not.

Thirdly, though probably not lastly, I think every right-mined voter and every right-minded trade union member should look long and hard at the people they vote to represent them and ask ‘Whose side are you on?’.
I’m not a history buff, it’s just not my subject, but I do know that in the past, in times of national emergency, members of all political persuasions have worked together for the good of the population. But what do we see nowadays? Everyone and his dog has an axe to grind; everyone’s an expert in a subject most can’t spell (epidemiology); and everyone knows exactly where the other chap went wrong but can’t come up with the right solution themselves.
And that’s just the great and the good. The vox pop is no better, as seen by the appalling demonstration in Hyde Park yesterday. It’s obvious that the several hundred protesting there know something better than the rest of us, otherwise why would they be risking their own health (though I noticed a few weren’t quite so confident in their protest and were wearing face masks), and the health of every person they share a home with (but maybe they’re all Billy NoMates and live alone) to stand with the deranged Piers Corbyn claiming 5G is responsible for Covid-19 and to demand ‘no mandatory vaccination’ (we don’t have and have never had, afaik, mandatory vaccination in the UK). And did you see the picture of the man with the placard who’d tried to pinch the quote from ‘The Prisoner’ – I Am Not A Number. I Am A Free Man – but obviously couldn’t remember it exactly. Priceless!

Here’s one for the ‘You Couldn’t Make It Up’ files:

Boundary Lane in Saltney, Flintshire, sits right on the border between England and Wales, meaning since lockdown rules were loosened in the former but not the latter, one set of rules applies on one side, and another on the other.
On the side that sits in England, people can sunbathe, travel to other destinations and play sports with people from the same household.
But on the Welsh side, ‘Stay at Home’ is still the message and people have to stay local to exercise.
Veronica Gay, Flintshire county councillor for Saltney Stonebridge, said: “At the moment we have people living on the Welsh side of Boundary Lane, who are storing some rubbish in their gardens because the recycling centres aren’t currently open in Flintshire – but on the other side the bin lorries are taking stuff away. On the Welsh side, they can only go out locally, but the other side in England can drive to the Lake District or down to Brighton.”

The border runs straight down the middle of the road.

Thinking about it, the poor people who live on that road must have to endure two lots of bin lorries every week, two lots of street cleaning, and are probably policed by two different forces. Why can’t the councils / governments agree to move the border to one side or the other?

Here in The Avenue we are blessed with sunshine and warm breezes, so I’ve started washing the rugs. We have a thick woolen Flokati rug that can only be washed in sunny weather as it’d take too long to dry indoors, so that’s on the line now.
The forecast for the next few days is good, so I may try and get the hall runner out on the grass for a bit of a scrub-down. It’s a thick chinese-style rug, so it’s too big for the washing machine or it’d be going in there!

Doris has now been at home for 36 hours. She’s still recuperating from her enforced trip to hospital, so Martin is living with her at the moment. It’s a worrying time – she is 97, and pneumonia, while treatable, is still a serious disease at her age. Martin and I have had a discussion about her prognosis, and I feel she’ll take a week or two to get back on her feet, both literally and figuratively. It’s not the best solution, having him as her carer, as it presents problems with personal care, but it’s the best we’ve got given the attitude of his sister.
Martin is very close to his Mum, having been living with or caring for her since his Dad died nine years ago, so it’s very stressful for him to see her in a poorly condition. And we have had the discussion that given her age, she may not recover. But he tells me she is frustrated that she can’t do what she was doing last week or last month, so I think there’s life in the old bird yet!

Meanwhile, I’m knitting. At the rate I’m going Martin will have a lovely new winter sweater by the time he comes back home. However, it seems I bought too much yarn. Aldi were selling aran yarn in 400gm balls, so I bought three, as Martin’s a bit on the large size, but I have made the back and one sleeve out of one ball and still have some left, so it looks like I’ll have a whole spare ball. Might have to make him a Dr Who scarf to match! (A Dr Who scarf is about 15 foot long!!)

Today I’m stuck indoors waiting for the back rest to arrive. Ideally I’d go and do a bit more gardening, but I can’t hear the doorbell if I’m in the garden, so I think it’ll be back to the knitting.

I have just looked back and see I haven’t mentioned the back rest before. Doris woke with breathing problems yesterday. Martin got her into her fancy reclining chair, and her breathing improved. Seems that in the hospital she was propped up in bed, but at home she was lying flat, so I ordered an adjustable back rest, which will arrive today, thanks to Amazon Prime.

Day 56 – Monday 18th May 2020

The end of the seventh week of lockdown.

For us in the Edwards-Wood household it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster week. Doris in hospital on Tuesday morning, with pneumonia – how did she get that? – and back home by Friday tea-time. Martin now living with Doris as she recuperates. And now we hear that Martin’s sister has also been admitted to hospital with breathing problems. Whether she has the dreaded Covid-19, we wait to hear.

Still, on a brighter note, now that we’ve got about 1450 vinyls online we’ve started selling. At least that’s an incentive to finish the indexing, which is a bit tedious.

I’m not sure why there is a row over the publishing of the SAGE documents that underpin the current lockdown strategy. That’s always assuming they do underpin it, of course. I would have thought the best way to get people onside with any strategy is to provide the proof – what I call ‘citing the sources’. It seems that only 16 out of 90 papers have been published, and some of those are heavily redacted. That’s a strange thing to do, unless there’s something to hide. Cue the tin-foil hat brigade and their conspiracy theories, though in this case I don’t blame them. What are you hiding, Boris?

The NHS contact tracing app seems to be turning into the farce we all expected. The rollout has been delayed, and apparently the app isn’t really necessary. What!? How much have they spent on this, and it isn’t really necessary. I know they spent £3.4 million getting the developers to see if it could mesh with the Apple/Google app, so God knows how much they paid for the original coding. And now it’s not necessary??

Day 57 – Tuesday 19th May 2020.
Martin seems to be winning the battle to get Doris back to health. For the past few nights she’s not slept well and has woken with breathing problems, though they have alleviated during the day. A phone consultation with her GP yesterday, and the prescribing of a short course of diuretic tablets appears to have helped enormously.
So today the plan is for her to get dressed, as she’s been living in her dressing gown for the past three days. Psychologically, that should help her recovery.

A quote from the Los Angeles County Department of Public Heath Director: “If people are gonna blatantly disregard their obligation to make it safe for others, it’s impossible to continue to move down a path toward recovery, because this is what will end up overwhelming our healthcare system.”
Interesting that the emphasis is on making it safe for others, in contrast to the redneck the other day who said “My job is to keep me safe; it’s not my job to keep you safe.”

Jane Peacock, along with four members of her family (all adults) drove for an hour and a half to visit a beach on Sunday. She was interviewed by the BBC (with the reporter using a boom mic to stay 6ft away):
‘It’s lovely to get out but I’m quite shocked at how many people are here,’ she complained, while relaxing on the beach.
‘They’re not paying attention to social distancing. I find that quite annoying to be honest – it’s like being in Tesco.’
Her daughter added: ‘It’s nice to get out of quarantine but I think it’s going to peak again because everyone’s going to go mad and go anywhere they can.’
Twitter users labelled the Peacock family’s behaviour as ‘selfish’ and ‘irresponsible’ while others pointed out that she’s a part of the problem.
One user named MK wrote: ‘I think she sees herself as above the problem. This type of ego is what is wrong with the majority of the UK.’
Another user said: ‘For someone who is engaging in selfish, irresponsible behaviour to criticise others for selfish, irresponsible behaviour is the height of hypocrisy. Don’t go to the beach or other beauty hotspots. Don’t drive one and a half hours to go anywhere. Just stay at home.’
Tweeter Colm McAfee posted: ‘I’m baffled. Just saw this on the news. Woman who drove 1.5 hours to go to the beach with her family complains about other people at the beach who have done the same as her. Does she not see she’s part of the problem?’
No she doesn’t. She’s one of the ‘don’t do as I do, do as I say’ brigade.

President Trump has self-reported that he’s taking hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic azithromycin along with zinc as a prophylactic against Covid-19. That probably explains why he thinks he doesn’t need a face mask. But in the UK, prescribing drugs ‘off-label’ i.e. for conditions they are not licenced to treat, would get a doctor struck off. So either Trump has forced his physicians to give him the drugs, or he’s being used as a guinea pig. If he has a bad reaction, who’s to blame?
Day 58 – Wednesday 20th May 2020

It was suggested to me today that I’m losing interest in this blog, because I’m not writing anywhere near as much.

I’m not. But my lockdown routine has changed since Doris was taken ill, and that’s thrown things out a bit.

So first Doris: She’s a lot better, is moving about with the walking frame, is dressing, and today was persuaded to have a trip into the garden. She’s still in the ‘I’m not sure I can do that’ stage, but Martin took her downstairs in the wheelchair and she sat in the garden in the sun, which I’m sure must have been good for her.
Given her age, she is recovering well, but it will take another two or three weeks before we can assess just how much independence she’s lost.
There is talk of needing assistance to do things – either with visiting carers or by moving into a care home. But neither is a good option while we still have no vaccine for Covid-19. And there is always a small chance that she may have contracted the virus while she was in hospital, but we have our fingers crossed. I’m reckoning on 14 days after she was discharged is a good cut-off point.

There are two interesting stories around at the moment; The first is a member of the Cabinet saying ‘if we got it wrong, it was the scientists’ fault’. That’s an interesting position given that the government mantra has been ‘we’re following the science because they know what they’re talking about’. Therese Coffey, the Work and Pensions Secretary, told Sky News that ministers could ‘only make judgements and decisions based on the information and advice that we have at the time’. ‘If the science advice at the time was wrong I am not surprised people think we made the wrong decision,’ she said.
So even more reason to publish all of the scientific evidence offered to SAGE.

Sidebar:
I have just seen pictures of Southend seafront, which is just a mile away from where I’m sitting, and you can’t see the sand for bodies. I don’t have a problem with people being outside, nor am I obsessive about the 6ft distancing, because I think that the chances of getting infected outside is pretty low, provided you’re not crammed together. But I just hope that no-one at the beach is an active case, as our figures here will jump up.

The second, and more interesting story is the Labour Party’s position in managing the return to work. I say Labour Party, though its leader is a fence-sitter, but the minions that control local government and trades unions are doing a really good job of thwarting anything and everything the government is trying to achieve.
The unions wanted us back at work. Boris said ‘OK, go back’. The unions said ‘No, it’s not safe’. Now Boris wants the schools re-opened. Makes sense, as many workers are reliant on schools to give them the time to go to work, especially as grandparents/aunties etc. are not allowed contact. And the unions say ‘No’. As do at least twelve local councils, all Labour-controlled. The Daily Fail has published the full 22-page list of demands and questions that a school must satisfy before the unions will recommend teachers going back to teach in schools. What they are asking for is a cast-iron guarantee that a teacher will not be exposed to Covid-19. Even if a vaccine is developed, that can never be guaranteed. So the government is being held hostage, unable to get schools moving, as long as the sheep follow their union instead of their common sense.

There is a 169-point checklist for teachers to use. The default position is ‘No’. Each point is made as a statement being ‘Are you satisfied that…’. Here’s a short list of some of the points on the list (with my observations):

Will staff be told to wash their hands before and after handling pupils’ books?
(If the staff need telling this, they probably shouldn’t be teachers.)

What are the plans for ensuring that staff can travel safely to and from school? A safe travel plan for each individual member of staff needs to be agreed.
(Why? Plenty of other people are making their own arrangements to get to work, so why are teachers so special?)

What arrangements are in place to keep every classroom supplied with tissues?
(Remember all those loo rolls that were panic-bought in February? Tell each family to send their kid to school with one. Problem solved.)

Will guidance and training be provided for staff to ensure they understand, and can enforce, the new routines and support pupils in understanding them and are familiar with revised physical arrangements, well in advance on when wider opening begins?
(Ah yes, the training days caper. Just email them all with the new details. Hopefully they can read – they are teachers after all.)

Have you been given an assurance that non-cleaning staff will not be expected to undertake cleaning work?
(God forbid a teacher might have to clean something. They’ll probably just call a time-out and send for the caretaker.)

This list has been produced by all the teaching unions. There is no way any school will be able to satisfy every point, and that’s exactly why they’ve done it.The next thing will be a wages claim ‘to allow for the disruption, risk, [any other spurious reason]’. Don’t forget, these teachers haven’t been furloughed; they are on full pay. Oh, and the unions are now discouraging them from providing on-line teaching ‘if they don’t feel comfortable’.

Day 59 – Thursday 21st May 2020

We are expecting thunderstorms today. No surprise really – a couple of days of sun, plus an upcoming Bank Holiday, and we always get rain!

I have already started browsing the Daily Fail this morning:

Steve Coogan – a very unfunny comedian (IMHO) worth an estimated £10m – rattles around his £4m home attended by a housekeeper and gardener. They are apparently “unable to carry out their duties because of social distancing rules”, so he has furloughed them on the government’s scheme.
This raises a couple of questions ; just how small is his £4m home that his staff can’t stay 6ft away from him and each other?; and how come they actually qualify for the scheme, given that it’s designed to help businesses retain staff during the lockdown?
I hope he also knows that furloughed staff can’t work for him in any capacity while they are receiving the government support, so I guess he’ll have to make his own bed, cook his own meals, and cut his own grass. Unsurprisingly, there is a picture of him and Jezzer grinning to camera. Says it all really.

Front-line staff in Brighton and Oxford are to be enrolled in a double-blind trial of chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine to see if it acts as a prophylactic against Covid-19. While both of these drugs are licenced for use in the UK, primarily as a treatment for malaria, this proposed use is off-label. Given the known side effect, I’m not sure I’d be signing up for the trial.
“Dr Stephen Griffin, associate professor in the School of Medicine, University of Leeds, said: “Hydroxychloroquine is not licensed for the treatment or prevention of Covid-19 by the FDA (US Food and Drug Administration), or any other agency.
“In fact the weight of evidence from most recent patient trials shows it to be ineffective, with the potential for adverse side effects including those affecting the heart.”
The FDA did issue an emergency use authorisation to allow the drug to be provided to certain hospital patients, but has since warned against the drug’s use outside clinical trials or hospital settings due to the risk of heart rhythm problems.”

Clinical trials usually attract a fee for the participants, though there is no mention of payment in this case.

Sweden is suffering.
Sweden has kept schools open (indeed compulsory) for children under the age of 16, along with cafes, bars, restaurants and businesses, and urged people to respect social distancing guidelines.
Sweden had 6.08 deaths per million inhabitants per day on a rolling seven day average from May 13 to May 20, the worst in the world. 90% of those deaths were people over 70.

A peer was last night accused of ‘milking the taxpayer’ by furloughing himself while claiming the daily House of Lords allowance during lockdown.
Lord Fox, 62, has used the Government’s job retention scheme to pay himself as the owner and sole employee of Vulpes Advisory, a strategic communications company.
But the Liberal Democrat frontbench spokesman for business has also chosen to take the £162 daily allowance for his work in the Lords, which is being conducted by Zoom during the lockdown.

Accounts filed with Companies House show Lord Fox has access to more than £100,000 cash in his Vulpes bank account, according to the Telegraph.
He furloughed himself and has already received his first month’s wage subsidy, of about £1,000, from the Government, it was claimed.
Asked why he did not first use the £100,000, he said: ‘I’m hoping to tide the business over, I’m hoping to relaunch it properly when the scheme… when the virus lifts.’

Lord Fox has a five-bedroom house in Windsor estimated to be worth up to £1.89 million. He also has a second home in east London.
He sits on the Lords economic affairs committee and it has held four hearings over the past month. Lord Fox will receive £648 for those hearings.
Lord Fox is also able to claim the daily allowance for his work as the Liberal Democrat spokesman for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy.
Asked for how many days in total he has claimed the Lords allowance during lockdown, Lord Fox said he did not know the exact number but added: ‘It works out as quite a lot of work.’

The Liberal Democrat party declined to comment.

Day 60 – Friday 22nd May 2020

I have skip-read the Daily Fail and decided to write something more generalised today.

A Short History Of Tracking Apps

For the less technology-minded an ‘app’ is an application – i.e. a programme – which allows you to do something on your phone e.g. check your Mail, listen to music, read the news, play Scrabble etc. All these things are possible because there is a programme written to do just that.

Two of the three biggest software companies in the world – Apple and Google – decided to collaborate to build an API (Application Programming Interface) to allow track’n’trace apps for this pandemic to be run on both iOS and Android smartphones. The API is only available to governments, who can then commission an app to suit their requirements. The advantage of a collaborative API is that code for an app only needs to be written once, as it will be capable of working on either system.
The most important thing about the collaboration is that ONLY Apple and Google can modify the code for their proprietary software, allowing it to be used in the most effective and efficient manner.
For example, if you arrive at someone’s front door you ring the bell and wait till they answer. At that point, they can decide to let you in or not. However, if they have given you a key – meaning they trust you – you can let yourself in as often as you like.
Standard APIs issued by Apple and Google are the doorbells – a programme has to identify itself and say what it intends to do before it can access a function. The new API created for the track’n’trace apps is a specially created key that lets the apps straight in to access a function, and in this case a function that is not normally available to anyone but the operating system’s creator.

A track’n’trace app relies on smartphones. That’s because it needs a couple of things that are built into these phones, to make it work: Bluetooth, and GPS.

Let’s look and see what such an app is trying to achieve. What it doesn’t do: stop you from getting Covid-19; cure you if you’ve got it; tell you if you’ve had it. What it does do: keeps a record of where you might have been in contact with someone who later on develops the virus, and tells you if they report symptoms, allowing you to self-isolate and/or get a test. It can also tell someone – in the case of the UK it’s the NHS – that you have reported symptoms.

I have been running the ZOE app, designed by King’s College, since 24th March. Every day I report whether I’m normal (for me) or if I have symptoms which might mean I have caught the virus. This data is sent to King’s College to allow them to track the possible spread of the virus. There is no ‘trace’ component to this app (i.e. it doesn’t know where I’ve been or who I’ve interacted with), nor is there identifiable information except for a partial postcode, so the data is just used to see if there are hotspots of contagion developing. Just over 3.6m people have downloaded this app – not many in a population of 60+m, but any data is better than none.

Basic requirements of an app:
The purpose of a track’n’trace app is to keep a record of any close contact you have with other people.
Obviously, just walking past someone in the street is very unlkely to expose you to any viral load, but standing talking for several minutes, even if 6ft away, could, in theory, mean you are exposed, so the app needs to be able to differentiate between the two. This is where the GPS comes in, as the app can identify proximity by reference to the GPS on its phone and the GPS on the second phone. Bluetooth also has a finite limit of around 15ft, so phones outside that area won’t register on the app.
Assuming that contacts older than 14 days can be disregarded (as the quarantine regulations only specify 14 days) the app only needs to keep a rolling 14-day database list. This list can be stored on the phone itself, giving rise to a ‘decentralised’ system, as opposed to a ‘centralised’ system where all the data is stored in the cloud (with its’ attendant security and privacy implications).
The app will recognise another Bluetooth phone and note it’s unique identifier (not necessarily the phone number, but something that would allow the phone to be contactable – by Messenger – if necessary).
The app doesn’t need to remember where you are, only that you have been near another Bluetooth phone.
In the event you become symptomatic, you can report to the app on your phone, and the app will then notify all the phones in its database that you are symptomatic, and suggest the owners of said phones self-quarantine and get tested.
If required, the app could have the capability to notify the authorities that you have reported as symptomatic. This would require some personal information which would have been input to the app when first installed – probably a postcode would suffice.
The app also needs to run in the background, not drain the battery, and work even if the phone is in stand-by mode.

There are already apps in existence that can track and trace.
Over 47 contact-tracing apps have already been rolled out in 29 countries, according to VPN provider Top10VPN.
For 13 of them, it isn’t clear if they’re centralised or decentralised. Of the remainder, 22 are centralised compared to only 12 that are decentralised.
20 run only on Android.
India’s Aarogya Setu is the most popular, with 50 million downloads
53% use GPS, 15% use Bluetooth & 28% use both GPS and Bluetooth
24 apps (51%) contain Google and Facebook tracking
11 apps (23%) have no privacy policy
25 apps (53%) do not disclose how long they will store users’ data for
28 apps (60%) have no publicly stated anonymity measures
24 apps contain Google and Facebook tracking
9 apps contain Google AdSense trackers
11 apps contain Google conversion tracking and re-marketing code
7 apps include code from Facebook

Some information on how other countries are using their own track’n’trace apps:
“South Korea early on created a centralised public database of coronavirus cases that provides extraordinarily detailed information about every infected individual, including their exact movements around the country. The database is constantly updated using location information from payment card transactions, mobile phone signal data, and closed-circuit TV footage. This government database made possible the development of apps such as Corona 100m, which maps infected individuals and provides information about their age, sex, and nationality.
Singapore’s TraceTogether, released on March 20, is a more limited coronavirus tracking app that keeps a record of close contacts between the phones of registered individuals without registering where those interactions occurred. Unlike South Korea’s database, it is optional, and in fact only about 25 percent of the population has signed up. It uses a phone’s Bluetooth function to detect and log every instance when two people (or at least their phones) come close enough to each other for Bluetooth to recognize the signal.
It is Singapore’s app, not the South Korean ones, that has become the model for other countries. This includes Australia’s COVIDSafe, which was rolled out on April 26. Although take-up of Singapore’s TraceTogether has been poor, Australians have flocked to COVIDSafe, with more than 4 million downloads in the first week—even though the underlying government monitoring system is not operational. When it is, users who test positive for coronavirus will be asked (not ordered) to let the government warn others that they have encountered someone with the virus, without telling those notified who the infected individual was. It is unclear how much of Singapore’s source code was built into Australia’s app, but analysts note a few tweaks to the Bluetooth implementation and data encryption.
The relative success in the take-up of the Australian app even before it is functional might have something to do with the fact that the Australian government is effectively holding the country’s economy ransom to COVIDSafe. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has made the widespread adoption of COVIDSafe the key condition for reopening offices, restaurants, and other amenities. How widespread would be widespread enough? The government won’t say. The requirement comes despite Australia’s relatively benign experience with the virus — there are currently only two dozen or fewer new infections a day [as of 12th May]— and the fact that more than 90 percent of all known cases can already be traced back to an identified source.” https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/12/coronavirus-tracking-tracing-apps-cant-work-south-korea-singapore-australia/

Under the GDPS (General Data Protection Regulation) law, to which the UK is bound as part of the EU, many of the existing apps would be illegal in the UK and are therefore unusable.

“Experts have indicated that at least 60% of the adult population will need to download the [NHS] app and participate in order for it to be effective in slowing the spread of the virus. Apart from the questions surrounding the likely rate of adoption, and therefore viability, its potential for abuse and trolling, and other inherent functional issues, there are very serious concerns regarding data privacy well past the lifetime of the crisis.
In the short term, relaxing some of our expectations for personal privacy in the name of the public good and navigating us safely out of this health crisis might be necessary, but it is crucial that these measures are temporary.
The application is being offered on a completely voluntary basis, however that shouldn’t give the app developers license to collect any more user data than what is absolutely necessary. Nor should it give government authorities the jurisdiction to de-anonymise the data collected from the app, or repurpose any of its functionality for any other objectives beyond the scope of its original intent.
Health secretary Matt Hancock announced that the data collected from the app will be “handled according to the highest ethical and security standards”. However, an alarming draft government memo leaked to the Guardian indicates that the NHS privately considered giving ministers the authority to de-anonymise the data and identify individual users if necessary under “proportionate” circumstances.
Granted, the memo was just a draft and NHSX representatives deny it was ever on the cards, but if the mere notion of de-anonymisation was discussed, even incidentally, it presents a very worrying illustration of how government authorities contemplate stretching their powers into highly questionable territories.
The reality is that anonymised data broadcast via a Bluetooth signal can never be truly 100% anonymous. The app might not record the user’s MAC address – a unique identifier – and restrict itself to a regularly re-generated Universally Unique Identifier (UUID), transmitted from a user’s phone via Bluetooth. But that doesn’t stop the NHS linking that identifier to a specific user, regardless of how often it is re-generated.
As authorities in the UK scramble to combat the spread of covid, they must not lose sight of their duty to protect UK residents’ fundamental right to personal privacy.
The NHS contact tracing app absolutely has the potential to be a game-changer in helping the UK effectively navigate the crisis and slow the spread of the virus. At the same time, it does also have the potential to be misused. It is therefore imperative that the application is deployed with care and appropriate transparency. It must also be limited in scope and only collect data expressly necessary for its purpose and only for the duration of time absolutely necessary in addressing the crisis.
If the government can provide users with an assurance of proper privacy safeguards and appropriate transparency regarding the scope of the data collected and the extent to which it will be used, it could go a long way in encouraging adoption of the app. In turn, this could significantly enhance its viability in addressing the pandemic.” https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2020/04/20/nhs-tracking-app-could-solve-crisis-but-at-the-cost-of-our-p

For reasons best known to itself the UK Government has rejected the API offered by Apple/Google (though my best guess is that it’s because it’s a decentralised system and the UK Government wanted a system that stored the data in the cloud. One has to ask why?).

“The UK is one of the few countries that has chosen to create a contact-tracing app that is incompatible with the contact-tracing API currently being developed by Google and Apple. Instead of decentralizing the data across devices, the UK will pool the information it collects in a single database operated by the National Health Service, or NHS.
The government argues this will provide greater insight into the spread of COVID-19 and allow the NHS to decide which users are most at risk. Privacy advocates, though, warn it creates new avenues for state surveillance. Already, the UK government appears to have undermined prior assurances that it won’t share the data it collects outside the NHS, suggesting other organizations might use the information for public health research in the future. This is something Apple and Google forbid for any app using their API, and another reason the UK has to build its app without the companies’ help.

But in addition to privacy issues, researchers have identified a major problem in the UK’s efforts to build an app without Google and Apple: it simply won’t work as advertised.
The core issue is one familiar to mobile security experts: app permissions. Contact-tracing apps use Bluetooth to create a log of nearby devices using the app, and, by extension, people with whom users have come into contact. When a user is diagnosed with COVID-19 or starts to show symptoms, they notify their app which then pings the devices of those people. Some apps, like the one built by Singapore, constantly broadcast Bluetooth pings to find nearby devices. Others, like the one built by the UK, try to create active Bluetooth pairings or “handshakes.”

The problem is that both Google and Apple restrict how apps can use Bluetooth in iOS and Android. They don’t allow developers to constantly broadcast Bluetooth signals, as that sort of background broadcast has been exploited in the past for targeted advertising. As The Register reports, iOS apps can only send Bluetooth signals when the app is running in the foreground. If your iPhone is locked or you’re not looking at the app, then there’s no signal. The latest versions of Android have similar restrictions, only allowing Bluetooth signals to be sent out for a few minutes after an app has closed. Such restrictions will block devices from pinging one another in close quarters, drastically reducing the effectiveness of any contact-tracing app.

Google and Apple can rewrite these rules for their own contact-tracing API because they control the operating systems. But for countries trying to go it alone, like the UK, the restrictions could literally be fatal. iPhone users with the app installed could interact with someone who is later diagnosed with COVID-19 and never know it, if their phone doesn’t keep a log of their interaction.

Similar concerns have been raised with Australia’s COVIDSafe app, which the country also launched without access to Google and Apple’s API.
The UK government has implied it’s created some unknown workaround to these issues, and there certainly are subtleties in how these protocols operate that might work in its favor. For example, while iOS devices can’t broadcast Bluetooth signals constantly, they can receive them from older Android devices. Doing so would essentially wake up the software and allow the app to exchange vital data.

It’s possible to argue, then, that the UK app will work in urban environments where there are a mix of old and new iOS and Android devices constantly in use. But experts say this is a long way from a reliable mechanism necessary to trace the spread of a deadly disease, especially considering that the market share of iOS in the UK is more than 50 percent.

Speaking to The Verge, digital rights expert Michael Veale, who is also part of an international consortium developing decentralized contact-tracing protocols, says there really is no way to build a contract-tracing system without the help of Apple and Google, who he praised for working at “lightning speed” on the issue. “They’ve been moving much faster than we’d expect them to,” he said. “They’ve provided a unified way that works across borders [and] that lots of countries are using.”

But exactly how the UK’s problems will play out is impossible to predict. The beta contact-tracing app is only launching as a small pilot this week in the Isle of Wight, an island with a population of 141,000 off the south coast of England. The UK government still has time to tweak its functionality or switch to a decentralized system, just as Germany did last month. For as coronavirus has shown, although every country has to fight its own idiosyncratic battle with the virus, that doesn’t stop them learning from others.

“The alternative to working with [Google and Apple] is to create a system that doesn’t work on iPhones, that leads to centralized databases that destroy trust, and that doesn’t work across borders and so won’t help open up international travel,” says Veale. “This is the British problem.” ”
https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/5/21248288/uk-covid-19-contact-tracing-app-bluetooth-restrictions-apple-google

And what happened when the app was rolled out to the Isle of Wight? Battery drain, and the app didn’t work as expected as it wouldn’t ‘wake up’.

“UK privacy charity Privacy International has claimed the NHSX app, built to track and trace people who have had Covid-19, does not work if left on in the background or if the phone is put to sleep.
The charity also alleges the software also lacks an opt-in, opt-out feature to stop user data flowing to third-party trackers and does not work on older devices.
Privacy International conducted a trial of the app and noticed it disabled a phone’s sleep mode and did not function properly unless it was actively being used.
“The fact that the app must be in the foreground to be effective,” the review states, “makes its usefulness highly questionable.”
“Many workers who are putting themselves at risk, and are also a likely conduit for the spreading of the virus, will be unable to have the app open while working.”
The report pointed out that key frontline workers like delivery drivers and NHS might not then be able to use the new system. It also claimed the software worked worse on iPhones as it did not let off a signal to Bluetooth beacons which helps track a users whereabouts, and did not function on older mobiles.
“The cursory testing we have completed of this latest app seems to suggest that only those with modern smartphones will be eligible to run it.
“This means it is likely to exclude those who can only afford cheaper phones, and most likely people on lower incomes.
“It is of note that those who are on the lowest incomes are disproportionately likely to be key/essential workers and the elderly, who are at most risk/exposure.” ”
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/nhsx-coronavirus-app-plagued-with-technical-issues-says-privacy-international-1-6644969

Which explains why it’s now been announced that track and trace can be brought in by 1st June, using the 25,000 or so ‘contact tracers’ (read call centre workers) and ministers have publicly confirmed the app will be a supplementary element of the wider tracing system and not the main focus as originally suggested.
“A government source said there was a desire to interact with a person – a human contact tracer – rather than rely solely on an app.
Therefore, they said, it would have been better to roll out the call-centre model and then supplement it with an app, rather than the other way around.” I believe you, said no-one.

And to throw fat onto the fire:

“In a published legal opinion, Ravi Naik, legal director of data rights agency AWO, Matthew Ryder QC and Edward Craven of Matrix Chambers, and Gayatri Sarathy of Blackstone Chambers have claimed “centralising” personal information into one database could result in “significantly greater interference with users’ privacy and require greater justification” by the government. Amnesty International UK agrees.
The lawyers are now instead promoting a decentralised system, which holds a person’s details on their phone, as opposed to on a central server, which the government has opted to do.
Ryder warned that if it ignored the advice of the Information Commissioner’s Office – which also recommended a decentralised approach – then it was “almost inevitable” the government would face legal challenges.”
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/matt-hancock-says-privacy-concerns-over-nhsx-app-completely-wrong-on-bbc-breakfast-1-6638976

NHSX’s (the developer of the NHS app) chief exec Matthew Gould admitted to MPs at Parliament’s Human Rights Committee on 4th May “If data has been shared by choice with the NHS, then it can be retained for research in the public interest or by the NHS for planning and delivering services, obviously in line with the law and on the basis of the necessary approvals by law.”

Try as I might I cannot find a cost for creating the NHS app, though I can see that NHSX – the National Health Service’s fairly recently created central digital unit has an investment of more than £1billion a year.

Wher does all this lead us? We now have a very expensive app that doesn’t work properly, and which has been sidelined in favour of call centres even before it got off the Isle Of Wight, and has major security and privacy issues.

I fail to see how adoption of an app can mitigate against the spread of infection thereby allowing businesses to re-open, as in Australia. At best, it could be used to close businesses down in an area if there was an serious increase in infection, rather than close the whole country.

And while track and trace has been hailed the saviour of many countries, I believe that the truth is more that people in those countries did what they were instructed to do and stayed indoors, on penalty of fine or jail, and old-fashioned plague-busting methods were used to find as many contacts as possible.

Tomorrow:
Herd Immunity and Vaccines

Day 61 – Saturday 23rd May 2020

Yesterday’s blog came about because I was asked why the UK hadn’t adopted the South Korea track and trace app, seeing it was so successful. As I’m not privy to Cabinet discussions, and as I didn’t know South Korea had an app, I had no idea. However, a little bit of Googling by my questioner soon exposed the answer: under UK law it would be illegal, given the total lack of security and privacy as it relied on a publicly-accessible database.
That led me to look for other similar apps available or in development around the world.
My conclusion was that an app that satified our legal requirements, was most likely to be downloaded, and didn’t impact on the useability of the device on which it was running, had to be built on the Apple/Google API framework.
As that’s not the route the UK have taken, I suspect what has been produced was a complete waste of money.
I’m not an app developer, I’m not a politician, nor do I have any financial interest in which app might be used, so I’m neutral in my assessment. The government have not disclosed why they chose the route they did, but I suspect that lobbying may have been a big factor.

Today, I thought I’d look at foresight and hindsight, and herd immunity.

Foresight:

“Exercise Cygnus was a simulation exercise carried out by NHS England in October 2016 to estimate the impact of a hypothetical H2N2 influenza pandemic on the United Kingdom. The exercise showed that the pandemic would cause the country’s health system to collapse from a lack of resources, with Sally Davies, the Chief Medical Officer at the time, stating that a lack of medical ventilators and the logistics of disposal of dead bodies were serious problems.
The Daily Telegraph reported one government source as saying that the results of the simulation were “too terrifying” to be revealed. According to the Telegraph, the exercise led to assumptions that a “herd immunity” approach would be the best response to a similar epidemic.
A number of news reports criticised the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in the light of the conclusions reached by Exercise Cygnus.
In late April 2020, The Observer reported that the government had been threatened with legal action over demands to publish the results of the study. The report, classified as “Official – Sensitive”, was leaked and published in full in The Observer’s sister paper The Guardian (except for redaction of some contact details) on 7 May 2020.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exercise_Cygnus

The problem with ‘once-in-a-century’ events is the difficulty of forward planning. It’s no good stocking shed-loads of something that is later found to be out-of-date when it needs to be used. A ‘once-in-a-century’ event means that statistically that’s about how often it occurs. So let’s look back over the last century and see how many times such an event might have occurred:

1918 Spanish Flu – 17-100 million deaths (estimated)
1957/8 Asian Flu – 1-4 million deaths (estimated)
1968/70 Hong Kong Flu – 1-4 million deaths (estimated)
2002/4 SARS-Cov – 774 deaths
2009 Swine Flu – 151,700-575,400 deaths (estimated)
2012 MERS-Cov – 862 (to date)
2019- Covid-19 – 340,000+ (to date)

It is apparent that the two coronavirus events that occurred in 2002 and 2012, and which had the potential to be pandemics, were damp squibs, both fizzling out with less than 1000 deaths each worldwide.
It is also apparent that ‘once-in-a-century’ events occur more than once in a century. In this 21st century we’re on the fourth for a start.

It is interesting to see how previous pandemics were handled:

1918 Spanish Flu:
The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic caused by the H1N1 influenza A virus. Lasting about 15 months from spring 1918 to early summer 1919, it infected 500 million people – about a third of the world’s population at the time. The death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from 17 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.
Most influenza outbreaks disproportionately kill the very young and the very old, with a higher survival rate for those in between, but the Spanish flu pandemic resulted in a higher than expected mortality rate for young adults. Scientists offer several possible explanations for the high mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Some analyses have shown the virus to be particularly deadly because it triggers a cytokine storm, which ravages the stronger immune system of young adults. In contrast, a 2007 analysis of medical journals from the period of the pandemic found that the viral infection was no more aggressive than previous influenza strains. Instead, malnourishment, overcrowded medical camps and hospitals, and poor hygiene, all exacerbated by the recent war, promoted bacterial superinfection [pneumonia]. This superinfection killed most of the victims, typically after a somewhat prolonged death bed.

The 1918 Spanish flu, which killed more people in 24 weeks than HIV/AIDS killed in 24 years, was the first of two pandemics caused by H1N1 influenza A virus; the second was the 2009 swine flu pandemic.
There were 4 separate waves, with the second being the deadliest.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

In the absence of vaccines, officials in some communities imposed quarantines, ordered citizens to wear masks and shut down public places, including schools, churches and theaters. People were advised to avoid shaking hands and to stay indoors, libraries put a halt on lending books and regulations were passed banning spitting. Social distancing and regular hand-washing was encouraged, and mass events were banned.
https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic

1957/8 Asian Flu:
The 1957–1958 Asian influenza pandemic was a global pandemic of influenza A virus subtype H2N2 which originated in Guizhou, China and killed at least 2 million people worldwide.
The strain of virus that caused the pandemic, influenza A virus subtype H2N2, was a recombination of avian influenza (probably from geese) and human influenza viruses. As it was a novel strain of the virus, there was minimal immunity in the population.
Microbiologist Maurice Hilleman obtained samples of the virus from a United States Navy doctor in Japan. The Public Health Service released the virus cultures to vaccine manufacturers on 12 May 1957, and a vaccine entered trials at Fort Ord on 26 July and Lowry Air Force Base on 29 July. The number of deaths peaked the week ending 17 October with 600 reported in England and Wales. The vaccine was available in the same month in the United Kingdom. Although it was available initially only in limited quantities,its rapid deployment helped contain the pandemic.
H2N2 influenza virus continued to circulate until 1968, when it transformed via antigenic shift into influenza A virus subtype H3N2, the cause of the 1968 Hong Kong influenza pandemic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1957%E2%80%931958_influenza_pandemic

There seems to have been almost no response from the government regarding the management of this pandemic.
“‘The public seems under the impression that nothing can be done to prevent the calamity that is threatened by the advance of influenza in the Far East. On the contrary there is a great deal that the Government can do; by acting at once they may save hundreds and thousands of lives’, argued a Dr Kitching to the BMJ. The government, he said, should organise a locum system to cover sick doctors, mobilise reserves of health visitors and nurses, and lastly arrange a reprieve from ‘the chore’ of signing certificates.”
By July there had been a number of localised outbreaks, and the Minister of Health was asked to issue a statement to allay fears, having declined to do so a month earlier. He replied that it was unnecessary as the flu was not spreading in the UK. However, in August when Asian flu was hitting communities and closing schools across the North West, a broadcast went out advising the public not to visit the doctor if they felt the flu coming on but to stay at home and take aspirin. Ian Watson, Director of the College of General Practitioners’ Epidemic Observation Unit, hearing this ‘deprecated the Ministry’s encouraging self-diagnosis and prescribing drugs.’ He asked the College Council to take a stand and condemn it but they did not think it appropriate to get involved, although their representative raised Watson’s point, without success, at the next General Medical Services Committee (GMSC) meeting in September. The GMSC Chairman reported that he had recently attended a Ministry meeting, to devise a national procedure to cope with a large scale epidemic. It had, however, been decided that such a scheme would not be workable and that local Medical Officers of Health (MOH) would be responsible for devising their own schemes ‘they would know almost as soon as the GPs that there was an epidemic.’ Watson, not appeased wrote to the BMJ reiterating his point and deploring that the broadcast had not specified an appropriate dose, method of taking, or allergic reactions to aspirin.
By early 1958 it was estimated that ‘not less than 9 million people in Great Britain had … Asian influenza during the 1957 epidemic. Of these, more than 5.5 million were attended by their doctors. About 14,000 people died of the immediate effects of their attack.’ Not only was £10 million spent on sickness benefit, but also with factories, offices and mines closed the economy was hit.
How effective was allowing outbreak management plans to be delegated to local MOH? The Times (28 September) reported that ‘emergency epidemic plans’ had been put into operation, which was denied; all that had been sent out were the usual reminders to be vigilant for epidemics over the winter. The actual policy of having local action plans drew criticisms of inconsistencies of practice. In some areas officers ordered complete closure of schools while in others only assemblies and physical training were banned.
https://bjgp.org/content/59/565/622

1968/70 Hong Kong Flu:
The first recorded instance of the outbreak of influenza A virus subtype H3N2 appeared on 13 July 1968 in Hong Kong. By the end of July 1968, extensive outbreaks were reported in Vietnam and Singapore. Despite the lethality of the 1957 Asian Flu in China, little improvement had been made regarding the handling of such epidemics. The Times newspaper was the first source to sound the alarm regarding this new possible pandemic.
By September 1968, the flu had reached India, the Philippines, northern Australia, and Europe. That same month, the virus entered California, carried by returning troops from the Vietnam War, but did not become widespread in the United States until December 1968. It reached Japan, Africa, and South America by 1969.
In Berlin, the excessive number of deaths led to corpses being stored in subway tunnels, and in West Germany, garbage collectors had to bury the dead due to insufficient undertakers. In total, East and West Germany registered 60,000 estimated deaths. In some areas of France, half the workforce was bedridden, and manufacturing suffered large disruptions due to absenteeism. The British postal and train services were also severely disrupted.
The outbreak in Hong Kong, where population density was greater than 6,000 people per square kilometre, reached maximum intensity in two weeks; it lasted six months in total from July to December 1968. Worldwide deaths from this virus peaked in December 1968 and January 1969. By that time, public health warnings and virus descriptions were widely issued in the scientific and medical journals.
The disease was allowed to spread through the population without restrictions on economic activity, until a vaccine became available four months after it started.
In comparison to other pandemics of the 20th century, the Hong Kong flu yielded a low death rate than in previous pandemics for several reasons:
Some immunity against the N2 flu virus may have been retained in populations struck by the Asian Flu strains which had been circulating since 1957;
The pandemic did not gain momentum until near the winter school holidays, thus limiting the infection spreading;
Improved medical care gave vital support to the very ill;
The availability of antibiotics that were more effective against secondary bacterial infections.

The H3N2 virus returned during the following 1969/1970 flu season, resulting in a second, deadlier wave of deaths. It remains in circulation today as a strain of the seasonal flu.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu

The government’s response to this pandemic was much the same as last time: wait it out.
Nicholas Timmins, chronicler of the welfare state in his excellent book The Five Giants, recalls:
“For a briefish period, everything stopped for tea, so to speak, “ he writes. “There was no email in those days, and much of the post stopped being delivered, or was very late. The milk – almost all of it delivered to the door in glass bottles – stopped arriving. Trains and buses ran to heavily reduced timetables: not because of the sorts of decisions being taken now, but because drivers had the flu. Clinical staff, of course, also caught it, and for a period the NHS was overwhelmed.”
One striking thing, however, in comparison with what we are currently going through, is that a public health emergency did not also become an economic emergency. Unless we all missed it, the government did not even contemplate a lockdown. Sporting fixtures, with spectators crowded onto terraces, continued.
http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002363.html

2009 Swine Flu
The 2009 swine flu pandemic was an influenza pandemic that lasted for about 19 months, from January 2009 to August 2010, and the second of two pandemics involving H1N1 influenza virus. (The first being the 1918–1919 Spanish flu pandemic which lasted about 15 months.) First described in April 2009, the virus appeared to be a new strain of H1N1, which resulted from a previous triple reassortment of bird, swine, and human flu viruses further combined with a Eurasian pig flu virus, leading to the term “swine flu”.
Some studies estimated that the actual number of cases including asymptomatic and mild cases could be 700 million to 1.4 billion people — or 11 to 21 percent of the global population of 6.8 billion at the time. The lower value of 700 million is more than the 500 million people estimated to have been infected by the Spanish flu pandemic.
Initially called an “outbreak”, widespread H1N1 infection was first recognized in the state of Veracruz, Mexico, with evidence that the virus had been present for months before it was officially called an “epidemic”. The Mexican government closed most of Mexico City’s public and private facilities in an attempt to contain the spread of the virus; however, it continued to spread globally, and clinics in some areas were overwhelmed by infected people. The new virus was first isolated in late April by American and Canadian laboratories from samples taken from people with flu in Mexico, Southern California, and Texas. Soon the earliest known human case was traced to a case from 9 March 2009 in a 5-year-old boy in La Gloria, Mexico, a rural town in Veracruz. In late April, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared its first ever “public health emergency of international concern,” or PHEIC,[38] and in June, the WHO and the U.S. CDC stopped counting cases and declared the outbreak a pandemic.
Because the H1N1 vaccine was initially in short supply in the U.S., the CDC recommended that initial doses should go to priority groups such as pregnant women, people who live with or care for babies under six months old, children six months to four years old and health-care workers. In the UK, the NHS recommended vaccine priority go to people over six months old who were clinically at risk for seasonal flu, pregnant women and households of people with compromised immunity.
Infection control:
Travel precautions:
On 7 May 2009, the WHO stated that containment was not feasible and that countries should focus on mitigating the effect of the virus. They did not recommend closing borders or restricting travel. On 26 April 2009, the Chinese government announced that visitors returning from flu-affected areas who experienced flu-like symptoms within two weeks would be quarantined.
U.S. airlines had made no major changes as of the beginning of June 2009, but continued standing practices which include looking for passengers with symptoms of flu, measles or other infections, and relying on in-flight air filters to ensure that aircraft were sanitised. Masks were not generally provided by airlines and the CDC did not recommend that airline crews wear them. Some non-U.S. airlines, mostly Asian, including Singapore Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Cathay Pacific and Aeromexico, took measures such as stepping up cabin cleaning, installing state-of-the-art air filters and allowing in-flight staff to wear face masks.
According to studies conducted in Australia and Japan, screening individuals for influenza symptoms at airports during the 2009 H1N1 outbreak was not an effective method of infection control.
Schools:
U.S. government officials were especially concerned about schools because the H1N1 flu virus appears to disproportionately affect young and school-age people, between six months and 24 years of age. The H1N1 outbreak led to numerous precautionary school closures in some areas. Rather than closing schools, the CDC recommended that students and school workers with flu symptoms should stay home for either seven days total, or until 24 hours after symptoms subsided, whichever was longer. The CDC also recommended that colleges should consider suspending fall 2009 classes if the virus began to cause severe illness in a significantly larger share of students than the previous spring. They also urged schools to suspend rules, such as penalties for late papers or missed classes or requirements for a doctor’s note, to enforce “self-isolation” and prevent students from venturing out while ill; schools were advised to set aside a room for people developing flu-like symptoms while they waited to go home and to have ill students or staff and those caring for them use face masks.
In California, school districts and universities were on alert and worked with health officials to launch education campaigns. Many planned to stockpile medical supplies and discuss worst-case scenarios, including plans to provide lessons and meals for low-income children in case elementary and secondary schools closed. University of California campuses stockpiled supplies, from paper masks and hand sanitizer to food and water. To help prepare for contingencies, University of Maryland School of Medicine professor of pediatrics James C. King Jr. suggested that every county should create an “influenza action team” to be run by the local health department, parents, and school administrators. By 28 October 2009, about 600 schools in the United States had been temporarily closed, affecting over 126,000 students in 19 states.
Workplace:
Fearing a worst-case scenario, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) developed updated guidance and a video for employers to use as they developed plans to respond to the H1N1 outbreak. The guidance suggested that employers consider and communicate their objectives, such as reducing transmission among staff, protecting people who are at increased risk of influenza-related complications from becoming infected, maintaining business operations, and minimising adverse effects on other entities in their supply chains.
The CDC estimated that as much as 40% of the workforce might be unable to work at the peak of the pandemic due to the need for many healthy adults to stay home and care for an ill family member, and advised that individuals should have steps in place should a workplace close down or a situation arise that requires working from home. The CDC further advised that persons in the workplace should stay home sick for seven days after getting the flu, or 24 hours after symptoms end, whichever is longer.

In the UK, the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) also issued general guidance for employers https://web.archive.org/web/20090827061646/http://www.hse.gov.uk/news/2009/swineflu.htm

Face masks:
The U.S. CDC does not recommend use of face masks or respirators in non-health care settings, such as schools, workplaces, or public places, with a few exceptions: people who are ill with the virus when around other people, and people who are at risk for severe illness while caring for someone with the flu. There has been some disagreement about the value of wearing face masks, some experts fearing that masks may give people a false sense of security and should not replace other standard precautions. Masks may benefit people in close contact with infected persons, but it is unknown whether they prevent H1N1 flu infection. Yukihiro Nishiyama, professor of virology at Nagoya University’s School of Medicine, commented that the masks are “better than nothing, but it’s hard to completely block out an airborne virus since it can easily slip through the gaps”. According to mask manufacturer 3M, masks will filter out particles in industrial settings, but “there are no established exposure limits for biological agents such as swine flu virus”. However, despite the lack of evidence of effectiveness, the use of such masks is common in Asia. They are particularly popular in Japan, where cleanliness and hygiene are highly valued and where etiquette obligates those who are sick to wear masks to avoid spreading disease.

Quarantine:
During the height of the fear of a pandemic, some countries initiated or threatened to initiate quarantines of foreign visitors suspected of having or being in contact with others who may have been infected. In May 2009, the Chinese government confined 21 U.S. students and three teachers to their hotel rooms. As a result, the US State Department issued a travel alert about China’s anti-flu measures and warned travellers against travelling to China if ill. In Hong Kong, an entire hotel was quarantined with 240 guests; Australia ordered a cruise ship with 2,000 passengers to stay at sea because of a swine flu threat. Egyptian Muslims who went on the annual pilgrimage to Mecca risked being quarantined upon their return. Russia and Taiwan said they would quarantine visitors with fevers who come from areas where the flu was present. Japan quarantined 47 airline passengers in a hotel for a week in mid-May, then in mid-June India suggested pre-screening “outbound” passengers from countries thought to have a high rate of infection.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic

That then was the sum of the global experience in dealing with a pandemic.

In the 100 years since the Spanish Flu, the world has developed vaccines, technology, and the ability to rapidly respond to emerging threats such as Covid-19.

Hindsight:

Which brings us to 2020.

Five months ago, we were all looking forward to celebrating Christmas and the start of a new year, oblivious to the impending disaster that was about to strike.
Few people knew that a strange new illness had appeared in China, presenting as pneumonia. Reports at the time, generated from the Chinese data, suggested that whatever it was, it wasn’t transmitted human-to-human.

Here’s what happened in the first month of this year:

1st January saw Wuhan market identified as the putative source of the illness, and two days later passengers arriving from Wuhan airport to Changi airport went through temperature screening.
On 5th January WHO issued a statement advising against applying restrictions to travel or trade with China.
By 7th January Chinese authorities had identified the virus, called Coronavirus, which is a family of viruses including the common cold, SARS and MERS. Temporarily, this new virus was named as 2019-nCoV. Two days later the genome sequence was released.
By 10th January, WHO issued technical guidance on how to detect, test, and manage potential cases.
The following day the first death was reported in Wuhan.
By 15th January the first confirmed cases outside China – in Thailand and Japan – were reported. And by 20th January, three deaths in Wuhan and more than 200 cases in China caused some countries to start screening people at airports.
On 21st January the first cases in the USA and Australia were reported, both of whom had recently arrived from Wuhan.
On 22nd January, with over 500 reported cases and at least 17 deaths, WHO decided to postpone declaring an international health emergency, and, despite China closing access to Wuhan, they repeated that decision the next day.
By 24th January China imposed travel restrictions in seven more cities, and began construction of a 1000-bed temporary hospital to treat 2019-nCoV patients. There were 830 confirmed cases in China, and restaurant chains Starbucks and McDonald’s shut down their stores in China’s Hubei province. Airports in Malaysia, Canada, Thailand and Uganda implemented screening of passengers, while Thailand suspended flights from Chiang Mai Airport to Wuhan until 4 February, and Singapore’s Maritime and Port Authority started temperature screening at all checkpoints.
On 25th January Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam declared a health emergency in the city, Canada reported its first “presumptive” coronavirus case, and the death toll rose to 41 with 1320 confirmed cases globally, of which 1297 cases were reported in Greater China and 23 were reported outside China.
On 26th January the US government has announced a special flight between Wuhan and San Francisco to evacuate all American citizens from the stricken city, France prepared to evacuate hundreds of its citizens from Wuhan by air, and France and Mexico confirmed their first cases. Meanwhile, World Health Organization revised its previous report on China virus saying that the global risk from the virus is “high” and not “moderate”.
Spain and Portugal took steps on 27th January to repatriate their citizens from Wuhan, and the virus was reported in Taiwan, Singapore, Sri Lanka, and South Korea.
28th January saw Japan, Taiwan and Germany confirm their first cases of domestic transmission of coronavirus.
On 29th January China confirmed 132 deaths and a total of 5,974 infected cases, including 1,459 new cases. At least 86 cases are reported in other countries, including Finland, UAE, and Germany.
On 30th January Russia reported its first suspected case, and immediately closed its 2,700 mile border with China. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the US confirmed its first case of person-to-person transmission. The number of deaths from the virus reached 170, with a total of 7,783 people infected, of which 7,678 were in mainland China. The number of affected countries rose to 23, including India, the Philippines, and Italy.
By 31st January the death toll from the virus reached 213 and the number of infected cases increased to 9,776, with the first coronavirus suspects in New Zealand and the UK. Thailand reported its first case of domestic transmission.
WHO emergency committee finally declared the outbreak as a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC).

Now, with hindsight, it’s not hard to look at the way things unfolded and say ‘Why didn’t our government do [whatever it is you think they should have done] earlier?’
Throughout January we know that the strategic disaster planning group – COBRA – met several times, even though Boris apparently didn’t attend, and they would have had all the reports available, in far more detail than I’ve presented.
One could argue that by 15th January, when the first confirmed cases outside China were announced, the UK government should have closed our borders to China, or at the very least, by 31st January, when the first case was confirmed on British soil.

Time passes.

On 21st February, Italy confirmed one new case of Covid-19 in a 38-year-old man in the Lombardy region, bringing the total to four cases in the country. Previously, two Chinese nationals and one Italian were tested positive.
On 22nd February Italy announced the death of a 78-year-old man in the Veneto region, and also reported 16 additional cases, bringing the total to 20.
On 23rd February the number of infections in Italy surged to 79, representing nearly four times growth from the last count of 20. The UK reported 13 cases.
On 24th February Italy became the most affected country in Europe with more than 150 Covid-19 cases. The country also reported third death from the new virus.
On 25th February Italy reported 322 confirmed cases and 11 deaths with one recovery.
On 26th February Italy reported that the total number of cases has risen to 400 in the country.
On 27th February the UK government confirmed two new cases in England, taking the nation’s total to 15, Spain reported an increase in cases to 15, and Italy reported additional new cases, bringing the total to 655, with a death toll increased to 17.
On 28th February WHO raised global coronavirus outbreak risk to ‘Very High’. France confirmed a total of 57 cases, with two deaths, Italy reported a total of 888 cases with four new deaths, increasing the country’s death toll to 21, and the total cases in the UK, including Northern Ireland and Wales, stand at 20.
The global Covid-19 death toll increased to more than 2,900, and the total number of infections stands at more than 85,000, with around 78,000 of those in Mainland China.
On 29th February Italy reported the total confirmed cases had increased to 1,128 with 29 deaths,
There were 36 confirmed cases in the UK, about double the cases in Italy just seven days earlier.
On 7th March the UK reported 209 cases. By 9th March this had risen to 273, two days later 456, 24 hrs later 590. By 15th March the UK declared nearly 1400 confirmed cases.

On 11th March WHO declared a pandemic.

On 20th March, in his daily briefing, the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that cafes, pubs, and bars were to close, as well as shops, theatres and leisure centres, to protect public health, and on 23rd March the UK went into lockdown, closing almost everything except food retailers and chemists.
In the three weeks leading up to lockdown we were encouraged to wash our hands more frequently and discouraged from hand-shaking, hugging, and social kissing.
At lockdown, we were instructed not to leave home except for essential reasons – food shopping, caring for a relative, or one hour’s exercise.

(All the above timeline is taken from https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/coronavirus-a-timeline-of-how-the-deadly-outbreak-evolved/)

At what point, should the government have done something?

Given previous pandemics, should the government have done anything?
After all, little guidance was given during previous pandemics, until the 2009 Swine Flu. And even then, the UK government only issued a leaflet covering basic hygiene principles, and telling employers to increase cleaning in the workplace.

So would herd immunity i.e. letting the virus take its course have been a better choice?

For any government there is a fine balance between public health and the economy. In this pandemic, the UK government prioritised public health over the economy to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed, built several ‘Nightingale Hospitals’ in next to no time, and isolated the population.
The concept of ‘Flattening The Curve’ worked and spared the NHS, to the point that the Nightingale Hospitals have been hardly used, but the economic cost has been, and continues to be, astronomical.

And ‘Flattening The Curve’ doesn’t mean less people contract the illness, it just means it’s spread out over a much longer timeframe so the pressure on ICU beds doesn’t become unmanageable.

While there are various numbers bandied about regarding percentages of those contracting a severe case, and the mortality rate, it does seem true that at least 85% of people who get infected either don’t know they’ve got it (asymptomatic) or have a mild reaction for a few days. So all these preparations and the economic cost is focussed on just 15% of the population – about 9 million people in the UK, and with a potential mortality rate of about 6% according to the figures on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ which amounts to about 3.8 million people in the UK.
That’s assuming everyone catches it. In practise, maybe 20% of people actually get infected, so the potential deaths in this pandemic would be round threequarters of a million in the UK.
Looking at the figures on the Worldometer website, it shows only 2% of those currently infected are in a serious condition right now, which drops the numbers down to 1.2 million potentially serious cases in the UK, and 72,000 deaths.
Our current figures stand at: 257,154 cases and 36,675 deaths, including 2959 new cases and 282 new deaths.

So, despite all our precautions and the lockdown, the current UK death rate is about 50% of what it might be using herd immunity. And we’re not out of the woods yet, by any means.

It will be interesting to see the final figures, and the final economic cost, to find out whether herd immunity would have been the better choice.

I think it would.

Day 62 – Sunday 24th May 2020

Following on from my rather boring analysis yesterday:

A friend sent me a link to a nice graphical assessment of how a country’s response to the pandemic has affected both its public health and economy. It’s a standard quadrant – top right is the best of all possible worlds, bottom left is ‘probably made the wrong call’ territory.
Guess where the UK is.
Bottom left? Correct.
However, misery likes company and it shares its quadrant with most of Europe, the USA, Canada, Mexico, and Russia, to name but a few.
So it looks like all of those countries made the wrong call. Only China and Vietnam are in the top right.
See for yourself: https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/ranking-countries-coronavirus-impact/

Some people may have been surprised that my conclusion yesterday was that the lockdown was unnecessary, and the resulting economic burden was disproportionate to the aim.

As we come to the end of our ninth week in lockdown, I see a Nobel Prize winner has made a similar claim.

Professor Michael Levitt, of Stanford University, who correctly predicted the initial scale of the pandemic, suggested the decision to keep people indoors was motivated by ‘panic’ rather than the best science and that the modelling that caused the government to bring in the lockdown – carried out by Professor Neil Ferguson – over-estimated the death toll by ’10 or 12 times’.
His claims echo those in a JP Morgan report that said lockdowns failed to alter the course of the pandemic but have instead ‘destroyed millions of livelihoods’.
Prof Levitt added: ‘For reasons that were not clear to me, I think the leaders panicked and the people panicked. There was a huge lack of discussion.’ Although Professor Levitt does acknowledge that lockdowns can be effective, he describes them as ‘medieval’ and thinks epidemiologists exaggerate their claims so that people are more likely to listen to them.
Professor Levitt, who won the Nobel Prize for chemistry in 2013 for the ‘development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems’, has said for two months that most experts predictions about coronavirus are wrong. The 73-year-old Nobel prize winner is not an epidemiologist, but he assessed the outbreak in China at the start of the crisis and made alternative predictions based on his own calculations.
He also believes that the Government should encourage Britons to wear masks and find other ways to continue working while socially distancing instead.
Prof Ferguson’s modelling, on the other hand, estimated up to 500,000 deaths would occur without social distancing measures.
His comments come as other scientists working in the same field also reported that they couldn’t verify Prof Ferguson’s work. Competing scientists’ research – whose models produced vastly different results – were largely ignored by government advisers.
David Richards, co-founder of British data technology company WANdisco said Ferguson’s model was a ‘buggy mess that looks more like a bowl of angel hair pasta than a finely tuned piece of programming’.
University of Edinburgh researchers also reportedly found bugs when running the model, getting different results when they used different machines, or even the same machines in some cases.

Well, that’s interesting, isn’t it?!

Which sort-of brings me to Dominic Cummings.
It has been alleged that he espoused herd immunity (the strategy recommended after Exercise Cygnus exposed the massive shortfall in the NHS) and convinced Boris to use that strategy. I haven’t found any hard evidence to that effect (but then I haven’t looked for it either), but it would explain the initial government response to the emerging pandemic: no hand-shaking, no hugs, frequent hand-washing for 20 seconds etc. without actually mentioning herd immunity.
Someone somewhere decided they didn’t like that solution, and a ground-swell of dissent caused Boris to look to the epidemiologists for modelling scenarios, resulting in the now famous Monday night pronouncement that UK PLC was closed for business till further notice, and the subsequent mantra ‘we’re following the science’.

Ask any researching scientist what their most-used phrase is and I’ll bet that they say ‘That’s interesting’. Science isn’t an exact science. Any research produces unexpected results, and sometimes they are serendipitous results, with great benefits. But mostly they are small steps which help to point in the right direction to achieve the desired aim.
When I worked for May & Baker, many moons ago, I spent my days creating variations on a theme. We would start with a chemical compound that had shown some efficacy against whatever horrible disease we were trying to combat (fascioliasis and bilharziasis in my case) and chop bits off, add bits on, and swop bits around, each time testing the resulting compound to see if it worked better, faster, was less lethal, and then remodifying again and again until we had something that worked, was easy to administer, and easy to produce.

So it is with modelling pandemics. You start with whatever data you’ve got and run ‘what if’ scenarios. As more data arises, you add that and run more ‘what if’s’. Rinse and repeat. The biggest problem is reliable data. You could have a perfect model, but crap data, so the ‘what if’ bears no relation to the real world. It appears (and I haven’t checked this either) that the initial data from China was less than accurate, possibly to protect the Chinese government. So the initial modelling would have been way off beam. For instance, it was reported that the Covid-19 virus was not transmitted human-to-human. That is obviously incorrect, as we have discovered.

I know this seems to have drifted from Cummings, but it hasn’t. Boris apparently went against Cummings’ advice and implemented a lockdown, based on the (possibly flawed) science. As Cummings is a known maverick, I’m not at all surprised that he might ignore it.
Driving 250 miles to secure his son with his parents when he himself had become symptomatic was actually within the rules. What wasn’t in the rules was the back and forth trips he made, and the fact that when challenged about it, he lied. And now he’s been found out.

And if there’s one thing we don’t like it’s the ‘one rule for us, another rule for them’ system, otherwise known as ‘don’t do as I do, do as I say’. Which actually puts Boris in a bit of a bind, as he seems to feel Cummings’ advice is essential. I’m not saying it isn’t – in fact, if, as reported, his aim is to shake the shit out of the Civil Service I’m all for it – but openly defying your employer usually gets you sacked. If it doesn’t, that opens the door for further transgressions, probably without repercussions, and that is a slippery slope.

Cummings is a maverick and I like mavericks (good group, great lead singer) as they aren’t afraid to shake things up and say what I call ‘inconvenient truths’ – things that people know but don’t want to hear.

But in this case I think Boris has to find himself another maverick, as Cummings has put himself above everybody, presumably because he feels indispensable. And no-one is indispensable.

Here’s something I’ll bet you didn’t know: you can order bits of viruses online and build your own vaccine. Before you all rush to find the website, know that these bits are parts of the common flu virus in its many iterations.
That’s how vaccines against HN flu can be quickly developed and rolled out e.g. during the Swine Flu pandemic in 2009. This storehouse of flu bits has been in existence since 1968, and each year more bits are added.
Sadly, it’s not much use in this pandemic because, although influenza viruses and Covid-19 (and SARS and MERS) are all related in that they are all of the Coronavirus family, they are not interchangeable.

I’m going to make a prediction.

Most of the UK will get back to work within the next month.

Schools will re-open (though whether they’ll be staffed is up to the unions).
Businesses will re-open with social distancing, and probably keep many staff on as home workers. The last nine weeks will have demonstrated whether home working is successful. (I’ve long had a sneaky suspicion that it’s only the managers in a business that prevent home working, as they need to be seen to be doing something. The actual workers like the idea, even if it’s only partial home working, and the shareholders would love it as costs will go down, offices can be vacated, and there’ll be less time off for appointments, sick kids etc.)
Most shops will re-open, with suitable precautions. Martin and I have discussed how that will work for him: we’ll limit the numbers, require the use of sanitiser, and keep our distance from the customers.
Personal service shops – hairdressers, nail bars, beauty salons – will also open, with staff using PPE and a limit on how many customers they can accommodate. Any decent shop will already have suitable and adequate means of sanitising their instruments between customers.
Clothes shops will open, but changing rooms will be closed, and clothes sales will be final, with no returns. I think that will spill over to online sales, and clothes in general will be categorised like underwear, swimwear, or earrings – no return unless faulty.
Pubs, bars and restaurants have the biggest hurdles to overcome. But Wetherspoons have already organised a new routine based on table service only via app ordering, and reduction of the capacity.
That leaves theatres, concert halls, etc. I suspect they will have to sit it out for another month or so, while we all watch the numbers. Martin has an interest in seeing events being allowed to resume as his ‘Leigh Rock’ gigs have been dropping off the calendar like leaves in autumn.
Transport: buses and trains have been running, albeit a reduced service, throughout the lockdown. If home working continues, and if businesses can implement staggered working hours, there will not be the rush-hour pressure on transport that occurred in the past.
Airlines are an interesting case. It would probably be possible to reduce the capacity, but at what cost? Low-cost airlines are low-cost because they cram 200 people in a sardine tin and fly them around for a couple of hours. No food or drink, mandatory facemasks, no duty-free crap being hawked along the aisle.
It can be done, and if/when a vaccine is available, there won’t be a problem.

There will be a problem though if immunity passports are introduced. Firstly every single person in the country will need to be tested, and given a ‘passport’ with the result. But then what happens? Will airlines only take those with a positive result? Given that only a quarter of a million people have tested positive in the UK so far, that’s a very small puddle of prospective passengers. Even if the actual number is ten times as high – 2.5 million – that’s still barely a fishpond.
If an immunity passport is conditional on either testing positive or having the vaccination (when it’s available) that’d make more sense, though it’ll take a couple of years to actually roll out the test/vaccination to all 60 million or so in the UK.

And then, when you’re on the plane: will your destination let you in? and will you have to quarantine when you come back? The latter is a stupid idea. We should have been quarantining people from the off. Why it’s suddenly a good idea defeats me. And on the first point: Greece and Spain have both indicated they’re open for business again.

All of which means there is a slender chance that our holiday to Spain at the end of September will go ahead.

Day 63 – Monday 25 May 2020

The end of nine weeks lockdown. In theory we have three more weeks to go till we reach the notional 12 weeks isolation for vulnerable people first mooted back at the beginning of March, which will take us to mid-June.

This coming Thursday is the day for the next meeting to determine how lockdown might continue.

But yesterday’s briefing, in which Boris was a last-minute shoe-in because no-one else in the Cabinet was prepared to defend Dominic Cummings’ comings and goings to the press and public, was an example of how to lose your audience’s co-operation in a heart-beat.
Every single questioner asked Boris to address the reported multiple sightings of Cummings in places where he shouldn’t have been under the lockdown regulations, and every answer he gave related only to the first instance of driving 250 miles or so to secure his child. The rules were quite clear: you may not relocate to self-isolate, except in very specific circumstances e.g. the possibility of two parents both becoming so ill they could not care for a small child and that child therefore needing to be secured with relatives or friends somewhere else than their home. That I can live with. It’s the subsequent sightings around Barnard Castle, London, and Durham that are problematic, and break the rules.

So this morning, which happens to be a Bank Holiday (though that doesn’t really mean a lot when most of the country isn’t working) people are saying ‘if it’s good enough for Cummings to go where he wants when he wants, it’s good enough for me and my family’. I think many people will be out visiting friends and relatives today, as well as packing out parks and beaches.
Add to this the fact that the numbers are going down (not at all surprising if this virus is typical of other coronaviruses and has a shelf-life of about three months) and I think today will be the start of a free-for-all.
I think the pubs on our seafront will be selling beer in plastic glasses through the bar windows, all the seafront restaurants will be offering takeaways, and the tat shops selling beach paraphernalia will do a roaring trade. As will our council, who, while preaching the ‘stay at home, Southend isn’t open’ mantra, have re-opened the seafront car-parks and the traffic wardens are massing to hand out tickets.

The government has now lost its grip on the population. As I predicted yesterday, everything will be open (trades unions permitting) within the next month. I would revise my prediction to add that if the numbers keep falling, it’s highly likely that venues such as theatres, concert halls, and community centres will re-open by the end of September albeit with some token gestures towards social responsibility e.g. staff in masks, lower audience numbers etc. Weddings, birthday parties, and wakes will take place.

I’ll also predict that there will be a second wave, possibly just after Christmas. The only difference will be that by then we will have a vaccine, and in sufficient quantities to be meaningful. In fact, as soon as we have a stable, proven vaccine (and that’s getting harder to demonstrate as the instances of Covid-19 are dropping globally and it’s becoming difficult to find somewhere to test it) there should be a vaccination programme, akin to our yearly flu jab programme, rolled out to NHS workers, care workers, and all vulnerable people of any age, before the end of the year. This along with the herd immunity that has built up over the last three months should mean any further iterations of this virus are quickly brought under control.

As I sit in my garden in the sunshine, I’m wondering if this pandemic could have been handled better, not just in the UK, but globally.
If I’d done the research on previous pandemics back at the beginning of March, I would still have supported a herd immunity strategy. No pandemic in the last 100 years has resulted in the whole world closing for business. So why was it considered so imperative this time? Especially given that since the Spanish Flu in 1918, when we had no vaccines nor any means to produce one, the mortality rate of each pandemic has been dropping.

I believe there were two factors at work: the internet, which allowed news (sometimes very inaccurate news) to spread at light-speed around the world; and incomplete and conflicting data, much of which was taken at face value without corroboration. These two factors also spawned some of the ludicrous conspiracy theories including, but not limited to, that 5G was responsible, that contrails (chemtrails) were the cause, that China had planted the virus to seek world domination, that Bill Gates / The Illuminati / The Rothchilds / [any other group you care to mention] deliberately started the virus to control the world / sell vaccines / introduce microchipping in vaccinations / [any other crazy impossible outcome].
As no-one actually knew what was going on for certain, decisions were made based on whose theory was popular, or most-touted, or which scientist was the most eloquent; none of which was a good basis to make world-shaking changes.

In theory, the World Health Organisation, which was founded in 1948, should have been in control. Sadly, I think they allow politics to overshadow their purpose. I’m not at all sure why political representatives are part of the WHO makeup, but I’m certain that impartiality is not one of their cornerstones. Given that the WHO accepted China’s initial reports and broadcast them verbatim (almost) including the nonsense that this virus wasn’t transmitted human-to-human, would you be surprised if I tell you that one of WHO’s ‘goodwill ambassadors’ is Peng Liyuan, the wife of China’s President?
Until the virus had been identified outside of China, it was impossible to know if the Chinese reports were accurate (they weren’t).

Since then, every expert and wannabe expert has come up with a theory – sometimes more than one – about how this virus impinges on every subject under the sun, all designed, it would seem, to get their 15 minutes of fame in a few column inches of newsprint or webspace. We’ve had Instagram influencers telling us how to clean our homes, wash our clothes, sanitise parcels from Amazon, and make our own hand-cleaners. Scientists, and I use the word loosely, tell us to stay 6ft apart – or is it 1.5 meters, or 24 feet? – and that no-one who’s had the disease has developed antibodies – oh, wait – yes they have, and plasma from recovered patients is being used to help the seriously affected – and that as this virus is airborne going outside is detrimental to our health – as you were, outside is actually OK, as it’s inside that’s a problem, and so on. For every ‘expert’ with a pronouncement, you can find another with an opposing view, so it’s no surprise people are confused and afraid.

In the whole of human history there has never been a virus that’s wiped us out. Or we wouldn’t be sitting here today. Here’s a thought: since 1200BC there have been at least 246 epidemics or pandemics, all of which had the potential to wipe out the human race. But you’re here and I’m here. So would you say that with all those opportunities to wipe out your bloodline, not to mention the wars that might have killed your ancestors, you’re actually quite lucky? Your DNA has survived. Many communities lost 30%, 50%, 90% of their population during some of these epidemics. But you and I are still here. So I like to think we have a ‘lucky’ gene. And that’s a combination of Darwin’s ‘survival of the fittest’ theory, herd immunity, plus modern medicine.

What should have happened, using previous epidemics / pandemics as a guide, was to properly isolate the vulnerable, including those in care homes, while the rest of the population observed stricter hygiene and moderated their behaviour i.e. not crowding into clubs, pubs, venues etc. Unfortunately, most care homes in the UK are businesses who employ carers on minimum wage, and those carers work for more than one care home. Add to that the people who were discharged from hospital either with Covid-19, or suspected of having it, without the care homes being told, and you suddenly have a firestorm of infection that spreads through every care home in the area. So it’s no wonder the death toll is weighted towards the elderly. They were sitting ducks. I don’t blame the government (for provisioning or not the care homes – that’s the owners’ responsibility). I do blame the care homes for maximising their profits at the expense of the staff’s and residents’ health. And I blame the hospital managers for wilfully exposing closed communities to the virus by illegally discharging patients who were, or were suspected of being, contagious, just to keep their bosses happy. And that decision is also the government’s responsibility as it mandates how hospitals should function.

Today Martin and I walked to our local Tesco Express, and directly opposite is a second-hand shop. Like us, it’s been closed by government order. But unlike us, today it was open, with the owner sitting outside on his wares. Martin has now decided (and I don’t blame him), that irrespective of any pronouncement made by Boris today regarding Step 2, he will prepare to re-open his shop next Monday.

Day 64 – Tuesday 26th May 2020

Day1, Week 10

With a sleight-of-hand worthy of any stage magician, last night Boris deflected the whole country from grumbling about Dominic Cummings shortcomings by re-opening UK PLC for business in one fell swoop. No baby steps this time – almost everybody back to work by June 15th, with pubs and clubs following shortly after.
That didn’t stop the Daily Fail devoting 11 of the top 16 stories on its page to the DomCum issue, with many op-eds on the hows, whys and wherefores. But the story will be overtaken by the anticipation of how businesses will restart, guesses about which ones will go to the wall, stories about staff who were furloughed now being made redundant, and a whole new set of guidelines on how to shop safely.

The ‘numbers’ are going down. This is not surprising, as this virus is following a fairly predictable pattern. What I found interesting was the research showing that the many iterations of the virus that have been found (some suggested up to 500 variations had been identified) seem to be no worse, and in some cases a lot better (if you can use that word in these circumstances). The variations have not caused the virus to be more contagious, or aggressive, and in many cases are actually counter-productive (as far as the virus is concerned) in that it becomes less able to infect, or to cause devastating consequences. So it would appear that we are over the hump, and almost done with the first wave. That doesn’t mean there must be a second wave, though I think we would be foolish just to assume it won’t happen.
Testing will be the key for the future, followed by track’n’trace, but hopefully we will be in a position to do those things and keep any further outbreaks localised and contained – much as is done for cholera, typhoid, ebola etc.
And once the vaccines in development are tested, we will also have a defence that can either be rolled out across the globe, or used in the same way as the meningitis vaccine i.e. given immediately to anyone within an infected area.

Martin has revised his plan to open next Monday in the light of Boris’ statement, and is now looking to re-open on 15th June. Just as well, considering we need to do a bit of tidying up in the shop and get a bucket-load of sanitiser in for the rush of customers. And he wants to make a big thing of the re-opening, so there’s artwork to do. Which means buying toner for the printer. And then there’s the window, which has had a couple of large white boards shoved across it to keep the sun off the vinyl, but we need to get something which has a less ‘boarded up’ feel, so I’ll be looking for window film, and, of course sanitiser, today.

Update on Doris: it’s just two weeks since she was rushed to hospital with what turned out to be pneumonia, and about ten days since she was discharged. At the age of 97, it’s not possible to bounce back as quickly as she might have done in the past. So she is having good days and bad days at the moment and I expect that to continue for another couple of weeks at least. We are hoping that Boris will soon announce the ‘bubble’ strategy, so Doris can come over to us on a regular basis, which I think will help her mental health, as right now she’s stuck with just seeing Martin and her own four walls, though she has been out in the gardens of her apartment complex a couple of times. As far as I know, there has been no incidence of Covid-19 within the complex, so I’m hoping the management company will reinstate the house manager onsite, and allow her to run the afternoon events that entertained the residents. That will also give Doris something to look forward to.
So today she’s not having a good day. Very lethargic, no energy. Unfortunately she has a very small appetite, and forgets to drink, which I think may be contributing to some of her problems. Martin is in the unenviable position of having to consider she might need more care than he can provide, and therefore should be in a care home.
Given the current state of care homes, that’s a resort of last choice, as he and I have previously discussed. So today he’s going to have a chat with her GP, to see if he has any ideas. The sad thing is that on a good day, she gets up, dresses, eats and drinks, watches TV, and Martin takes her outside. Then on a day like today she has no motivation to do any of those things.

After a chat with Doris’ GP, it seems that most of her problems are drink-related in that she’s not drinking enough fluid. We’ll see if Martin can persuade her to drink more. Might have to get her back on the old red biddy!

Good news for me! Hairdressers should re-open in about a month, so that’ll save me trimming Martin’s hair again!!

And in other stories:
Sex workers draw up a list of positions which ‘minimise the risk of transmitting coronavirus’ along with other rules aimed at enabling brothels to end lockdown in Switzerland. Well that should be educational!

The final straw! Divorce lawyers reveal the bizarre reasons clients have given for ending a marriage: https://www.boredpanda.com/divorce-lawyers-share-weirdest-reasons-people-broke-up/

Last week the Daily Fail (and other media allegedly) published a story and pictures about an abandoned mansion near King’s Langley, Hertfordshire, which belongs to a Greek millionaire. The abandoned house is filled with designer clothes, furniture and has cars outside including a rusted Bentley.
At 9.40pm on Thursday May 21, police were first called to the house after reports of suspicious activity at the property, and arrested two men, aged 26 and 44 from Hemel Hempstead (about 4 miles away), on suspicion of attempted burglary.
Police were called again at 11.51pm to reports of further suspicious activity at the same property. Officers attended and arrested four people: A 22-year-old man from the Kings Langley area was arrested on suspicion of burglary, going equipped to burgle, taking a vehicle without the owner’s consent and possession of class B drugs.
A 21-year-old man from Hemel Hempstead, a 19-year-old woman and a 16-year-old boy – both from the Kings Langley area – were arrested on suspicion of burglary, going equipped to burgle and taking a vehicle without the owner’s consent.
Who’d have thunk it?

Day 65 – Wednesday 27th May 2020

This page has been unintentionally left blank.

Day 66 – Thursday 28th May 2020

I have developed the habit of composing this blog in Notepad, editing it, and then copying it to this document, where it saves automatically. It was the automatic save function that caused me to choose to use Google Docs in the first place. But as I’m aware that people may be reading this version (rather than the website version at https://yeartheworldstoodstill.co.uk/) I started to write ‘off-screen’ as it were, so my typos and hesitancy were not obvious. I had Notepad open, and had started saving the current work as I went along, in case I got interrupted and found my computer had shut down when I returned to the task.
Yesterday, I used a new Notepad page to write on – and didn’t save it. And I forgot to copy over my words of wisdom. So this morning, I was going to post yesterday’s writing, only to find my computer had shut down during the night, and all my writing was gone. Notepad doesn’t have a recovery system – when it’s gone, it’s gone. Yes, I know I could dig around in the system and find the dumped file, but it’s hardly worth it. Actually, no, I can’t. Recovery is only possible if the system hasn’t shut down.
So that’s why yesterday’s page was left unintentionally blank!

So, yesterday I decided to ignore anything virus-related and find some different stories:

Trump complained that some of his Tweets were being fact-checked, and found to be erroneous. He claims that stifled free speech.
Today, he announces he’s going to sign an executive order to close some social media platforms that are ‘censoring conservatives’ – the ones that don’t agree with him. So he’s complaining that his words are censored – in that they’re fact-checked and he’s called out if they’re wrong – yet sees no problem with censoring platforms himself?
Yesterday’s complaint was that he said mail-in voting forms were open to abuse, would be sent out to anyone, whether they were entitled to vote or not, would be manipulated by [his enemies], and would result in massive election fraud. Twitter fact-checked and stated that all of Trump’s claims were unfounded.
Trump himself used postal voting recently as he’s registered to vote in Florida but lives in the White House, but he says that’s completely different!
You couldn’t make it up!!

Another story I saw yesterday was about an abandoned mansion, owned by a Greek millionaire, that had recently been featured in the press. The mansion is full of furniture, clothes, and even has a rusting Bentley in the drive.
Two days after the story appeared, there were two attempts to break in, resulting in the arrest of no less than six people, all from the local area. I suspect they are the first of many.

Myka Stauffer, a YouTube influencer, and her husband James posted a tearful video on Tuesday saying they’ve decided to ‘rehome’ [isn’t that what you do to a dog or cat?] their adopted 4-year-old son Huxley. The child, whom they adopted three years ago, apparently has autism and brain trauma, and the couple had discovered ‘there were a lot more special needs that we were not aware of.’
They have four natural children. Suppose one of them was similarly diagnosed. Would they be ‘rehoming’ one of their natural children under the same circumstances?
People on Twitter were mad at the couple, accusing them of adopting Huxley as a stunt to gain viewers.
‘She adopted a child for views and then got rid of him and treated him like a brand deal,’ one wrote.
‘I never watched that Myka Stauffer youtube mom, but I am RAGING over the fact that they rehomed their adopted special needs son,’ wrote another.
‘You adopted him solely for the attention it would give you and now you’re giving him away. Unbelievable,’ another chimed in.
Myka has 717,000 subscribers on YouTube. Her popular videos include, REAL Newborn Morning Routine 2019, What I Eat In A Day To Stay Healthy And Lean, and SURVIVE Quarantine like a BOSS! THRIVE AND get your life BACK! Her sponsor partners include big-name companies like TJ Maxx. Hopefully the sponsors will have a rethink.

Yesterday I also noted that the space station ISS would be visible over the UK last night, followed by Elon Musk’s rocket, which was due to launch yesterday. Sadly, bad weather stopped the rocket launch, but hopefully it’ll go ahead on Saturday, though I’m not sure about the visibility.

This is one virus story I couldn’t resist:
The former chief executive of TalkTalk, Baroness Dido Harding of Winscombe, who was at the helm of the company when it was hit by an £80 million cyber attack that saw the personal and banking details of 157,000 customers accessed by hackers in 2015, will lead the UK’s test and trace scheme to tackle the coronavirus, set to launch today. She is the wife of John Penrose, the Conservative MP for Weston-super-Mare.
In the aftermath of the cyber attack, TalkTalk was fined a record £400,000 for security failings which allowed the data to be accessed ‘with ease’ in one of the biggest data breaches in history.
The Baroness also thinks that workers have too much maternity leave, despite admitting being the boss has allowed her to successfully juggle her own career with spending time with the two daughters she has with her husband. She said in a 2015 interview: ‘I have an enormously privileged position. I make a lot of money – a matter of public record – I have a huge amount of help, and I’m more in control of the day and what I do than someone working shifts on the checkout, or running the produce department in a supermarket.’ (So ‘I’m alright, Jack’.)
And now this woman has been put in charge of the track and trace scheme that comes into force today – a scheme that requires people to divulge the names, phone numbers and email addresses of any contacts they may have had prior to becoming infected with Covid-19. D’you reckon your data is safe with her?

Had a trip to Aldi this morning. Almost no jam, veggies looking tired, cold meats section a shambles, though the fresh meat was better provisioned than in previous weeks. Not sure what’s going on with them as they’ve been pretty good up till now. Hopefully better next week.

And I’m off to a garden centre this afternoon – can’t wait! Having now got a clear bed, having removed all the prunings and rubbish, I’m going to find some shrubs and bedding plants to brighten the place up. Plus a big bag of compost.

Day 67 – Friday 29th May 2020

With the weather staying warm, though a bit windy, yesterday Martin decided to bring Doris over to the park near us if she was up for it. Luckily, the increased drinking regime seems to be working, as she is gradually becoming more independent, so she was up and dressed hwne he did the morning visit.
So, after the Aldi trip Martin collected Doris and she had her first outing since lockdown (if you don’t count the trip to the hospital!). We walked round the rose garden, which is gradually filling up with blooms, with Doris inthe wheelchair, as her legs aren’t strong enough to walk any distance. I think just getting out of the apartment and into differnet surroundings really helped her mental health.

Boris announced yesterday that people can meet other people in their gardens from next week, so we decided to start a little earlier, and took Doris to our flat, where she sat in the garden and had a light lunch and Skyped her other son in France. While I realise that was against the rules, I decided to interpret them to suit our circumstances, since Martin had already spent a week living with Doris, so theoretically they were a family, and therefore her coming into our garden wasn’t a breach. Well, that’s my story and I’m sticking to it!

My trip to a garden centre yesterday was also probably a breach of the rules – not by going to a garden centre, but by goi9ng with a friend rather than Martin. However, as Boris says people from different households can travel together (to work, for instance) in a private car as long as the windows are open, and as my friend is a work colleague and we had the windows open (cos we were both smoking) I see no problem.

It was interesting to see how the garden centres are dealing with the Covid-19 guidelines: parking spaces reduced by 50% to keep people apart when loading their cars, hand sanitiser, staff cleaning the handles of trollies, 6ft markers on the floor, one-way systems, and at the checkout the staff don’t touch the items but simply add up the prices. The card machine is on a separate table, with a plexiglass screen separating the buyers from the staff. When you’ve loaded the car and return the trolley it’s taken by a member of staff and immediately sanitised. All in all, a well-thought-out system that keeps the customers flowing through without too much delay.

We ended up going to two centres, neither one the intended destination, but we’d got lost because my driver admitted he’d forgotten where it was. So I have bought a couple of bush roses, gerbera, geraniums, alstroemeria, a geranium with leaves that smell of attar of roses, plus two big tubs and a bag of compost.

So today I must finish clearing the dump area of the garden so I can plant my new acquisitions.

Day 68 – Saturday 30th May 2020

I have done my back in! While searching for something in my still-untidy wardrobe my back went into spasm. It was one of those twisting bending manoeuvres and the muscles just locked up. I can best describe it as a steel band around the ribs, and you can’t breathe.
It eased off after a few moments, so I carried on doing what I was doing, having located what I was looking for.
I went into the garden with the idea of placing the newly-bought plants onto the bed they were destined for, so I thought I’d just dig up a bit more bindweed that I could see poking through the soil, which I did. I walked back to the patio to pick something up from the table, and the spasm hit again, but this time it didn’t go away. I was rooted to the spot, as any movement just exacerbated the situation. Finally I managed to get intot he kitchen and find some painkillers.
Martin had been on his morning visit to Doris while all this was happening, and returned to find me heating my back up in the sunshine (to try and relieve the spasm) and hardly able to speak (probably not the worst outcome from his point of view).
Out came the Voltarol, and a combination of that and paracetemol at least eased it off sufficiently for me to be able to walk and sit.

So all my intentions regarding the garden went out of the window, and I spent the rest of the day propped up on pillows and painkillers, finishing off Martin’s winter sweater.

Day 69 – Sunday 31st May 2020

Still struggling with the back, but it has moved from acute to chronic, so that’s an improvement. I think I shall have to supervise Martin doing the planting today.

I have also suggested Doris comes for lunch in the garden, so Martin may have to take on some of the cooking as well.

I have been ignoring the media for the last couple of days, as it’s getting very repetitive.

However, today I’ve seen a story which casts serious doubts on the extent of the DomCum fiasco, namely that one reported sighting is now acknowledged as fake (‘I did it for a laugh’), and another was a reoprt from someone who had apparently broken the rules themselves. That doesn’t make it less valid of course, but pot, kettle and black come to mind, and there is a nasty smell of Remainers about the mob that swamped DomCum’s home earlier in the week. Which leads me to believe that things aren’t as clear as they may have seemed. I still feel he deliberately chose an action that most people wouldn’t have contemplated, given the ‘stay home if you have symptoms’ message, and the Barnard Castle episode is problematic – you go out driving to test if your eyesight is good enough to drive? I don’t think so. That must surely be illegal, if not totally stupid. Or maybe just an excuse to cover for a trip out on the wife’s birthday.

The riots in America following the death of a man in police custody is very worrying. I see it is spilling over into the UK with a demonstration in Peckham. Sadly, America has a President far more concerned with himself and the upcoming election than with what’s happening in his country. So instead of trying to calm the situation, he is exacerbating it by threatening to use the National Guard on rioters. I don’t hold with rioting – it is often hijacked by the lawless as an excuse to loot and/or attack people – but with no voice to calm the situation, nor confidence in the judical system, it appears to be the only way a maligned group can express themselves. Hopefully a voice of reason will be heard before too many other people die.

I have a feeling Tatler may go out of business soon. Biting the hand that feeds you is never a clever idea. And to annoy Kensington Palace, the court of a future king, has to be a very silly idea. The Royal family have a ‘never complain, never explain’ attitude, so I doubt very much any of the quotes or suppositions attributed to the Cambridges is remotely accurate. To take a pop at a future queen, with her undoubted influence, must be commercial suicide. I think Anna Pasternak will also be off the garden party list.

Nicola Sturgeon should spend less time taking a swipe at Boris and more time looking after her own people, following a report yesterday of a 94-year-old-woman in a top tenement flat in Goven, Glasgow, who hadn’t eaten for five days as she was terrified to go out, and had no-one to shop for her. Luckily, she was found by the Salvation Army, who have fed her and organised support.

From the Daily Fail (Australian Edition):
For reasons that escape me, we seem to get an ‘Australian’ feed as part of the UK’s version of the Daily Fail. The stories are either hacks for the home, hacks for the kitchen, cleaning hacks, weight-loss hacks, or how-to-look-ten-years-younger-in-a-week hacks. And needless to say, they attract the expected comments from UK-based readers.
But today they have a recipe, and I think I might make it – when the weather turns (so tomorrow probably): https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/food/article-8373373/Home-cooks-wild-incredibly-simple-slow-cooked-lasagne-recipe.html
It’s lasagne, but cooked in a slow cooker. I like lasagne, but resent heating the oven for just one dish, so I rarely make it. This looks like the answer.
*****
A successful Sunday lunch. Doris was much improved, and ate a reasonable serving of roast chicken dinner followed by trifle, washed down with a small glass of red wine. We ate in the garden, observing (most of) the rules, though she did come indoors for a short while. However, as I consider we are a conjoined family I don’t think we broke the rules as I interpret them.

The back is still propped up on painkillers, but is much less problematic than yesterday. I Googled the issue and found that it may take 1-2 weeks to right itself. Oh well.

Day 70 – Monday 1st June 2020

Last day of the tenth week of lockdown.

Schools are starting to re-open, outdoor markets can open, and you can buy a new car. We can also meet another family, but only outdoors, and in no larger group than six.

The top story today is about three women, all with children, who are disposed to sue the government unless they get satisfactory answers to their questions regarding childrens’ welfare during the lockdown. They already have a bunch of lawyers lined up, keen to earn money at anyone’s expense.
So, these three want to know if children’s human rights were breached by closing schools, and they claim the plans to re-open them – social distancing, extra hygiene, no soft toys etc. – also contravene the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child (UNCRC), which states the best interests of the child must be the primary consideration.
Well let’s look at this:
Claim: closing the schools and placing children in lockdown is having a devastating impact on children’s wellbeing, especially in regard to the ‘long term physical and mental welfare’ of pupils.
That means they must think that closing schools was a bad idea. So, supposing they weren’t closed. And given that children can contract the virus, even though they may not display any symptoms, how would they then feel when little Tabitha or Jeremy comes home with the ‘invisible’ bug and they catch it from their child? I guess that’s OK, as long as the children are happy.
Claim: children shouldn’t be treated like they’re germs, disinfected on entry and separated on to individual tables.
So, let them mix and play as before … and see above
Neither of these two claims seems to take any account of the staff in the schools and how being in contact with a number of seemingly healthy virus carriers would impact them and their families. If half the staff get ill, who’s going to teach the kids? Or if staff have inadvertently contracted the virus while going about their business outside school, and then infected the kids… and see above.
One of the women is a former lawyer (says it all really), another is a health economist (I Googled that and it seems a health economist studies how resources are used in health care), and the third seems to have no profession worth the Daily Fail noting.
Interestingly, while these three women want their children back at school, without the coronavirus measures, about half of the parents whose kids could go back to school today (with the coronavirus measures) are refusing to send them because they think it’s still not safe.

The appalling story of the Post Office’s Horizon scandal raises its head again today, with yet another poor woman’s tale of losing all her money and friends after being wrongly accused of stealing. The thing that surprises me (most – because the whole affair is almost beyond belief) is that the Post Office has an archaic right to prosecute people in court without going through the police or CPS. This seems to stem from the days of highwaymen robbing the mail coaches, but now the reverse is true, with the Post Office robbing their employees. That right doesn’t seem to have been repealed. But then no-one seems to have been blamed for the nearly 1000 people wrongly accused because of a (known) faulty computer system, nor has any lawyer or officer of the Post Office been put up on a charge of perjury for lying to the courts about the infallibility of the system.
Post Office Chief Executive Paula Vennells, who is also an Anglican minister, was in charge when the Post Office was prosecuting postmasters for theft. This woman, whose business (Post Office Ltd) behaved very oppressively, earning it a judge’s comparison to a “Mid Victorian factory owner” is now advising the church on ethical investment. She is also Chair of Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, and on the board of the Cabinet Office. The latter might explain why she’s still in any post, and why she hasn’t been prosecuted (yet).

The Daily Fail is up to its usual standard – a whole article on how to clean everything now that the lockdown rules are being lifted slightly. They really need to get some staff who actually understand things like pandemics and herd immunity, and why being super-clean will kill you.
But I did have to have a little laugh:
Cardboard:
“The virus can, theoretically, last 24 hours on cardboard…Ask the person delivering [parcels] to keep their distance, wash your hands after opening, and then throw packaging away.”
Newspapers:
“The virus cannot be transmitted on newspapers”.
So cardboard, which is pulped up trees, might have the virus for 24hrs, but newspaper, which is pulped up trees, cannot transmit the virus. How does that work then?